Turnovers

[Clayton]

There were 2 really extreme teams in the NFL last year when it came to turnovers.

The Chicago Bears had a fairly normal giveaway stat which should be a good because they have Jay Cutler. But their defense had an incredible 44 takeaways leading the league in both interceptions and fumble recoveries. You have to go back to the 2002 Packers to find a team that had more takeaways.

The Philadelphia Eagles led in the in giveaways and had the fewest number of takeaways. Thats nuts. Their -24 turnover margin is the worst since the 2004 Rams.

The big question is: are these trends going to continue?

My general thought is that the Bears defense should remain legit and still should probably be in the top 3 in takeaways regardless. This still might lead to regression, though. I think the Eagles should come back healthier and even something closer to a -16 turnover margin might mean they could challenge for their division.

Thoughts?

 

[cwalke3408]

Not sure good the Bears Def. will be with Urlacher gone who was the brains of the Defense but we still have Tillman, Jennings, Briggs, and Peppers which should be good enough to be top 3 Def. With a new offensive minded coach and a new TE and LT, turnovers should good down this year on offense.

 

[USCDoom]

There were 2 really extreme teams in the NFL last year when it came to turnovers.

The Chicago Bears had a fairly normal giveaway stat which should be a good because they have Jay Cutler. But their defense had an incredible 44 takeaways leading the league in both interceptions and fumble recoveries. You have to go back to the 2002 Packers to find a team that had more takeaways.

The Philadelphia Eagles led in the in giveaways and had the fewest number of takeaways. Thats nuts. Their -24 turnover margin is the worst since the 2004 Rams.

The big question is: are these trends going to continue?

My general thought is that the Bears defense should remain legit and still should probably be in the top 3 in takeaways regardless. This still might lead to regression, though. I think the Eagles should come back healthier and even something closer to a -16 turnover margin might mean they could challenge for their division.

Thoughts?

I would say you need to look at the previous years. In 99 the Rams had a bunch of takeaways, but they had few in the previous years. Then in 2000 they fell back to earth.

The NFL is a very fluid game, what is a Strength one year is a Weakness the next, with the same personnel. Heck one game to the next sometimes. The Eagles could be +16 and finish 5-11 in 2013. What if all they can do this year is kick FGs?

The Eagles are not in a trend, IMO, whatever they do this year has nothing to do with really anything. The Bears have a new coaching staff so I think their trend is ending.

 

[Clayton]

I would say you need to look at the previous years. In 99 the Rams had a bunch of takeaways, but they had few in the previous years. Then in 2000 they fell back to earth.

Rams/Martz teams were kinda flukish when it came to turnovers. The 2000 and 2001 teams had the same turnover margin and one did significantly better than the other. The 2004 Rams actually made the playoffs with the same turnover margin that the Eagles had last year. In a lot of cases, those turnovers were kinda like Punts so they didn't change the game as much as Vick throwing an INT at his 20 yard line.

 

[DaBearsShowPride]

Not sure good the Bears Def. will be with Urlacher gone who was the brains of the Defense but we still have Tillman, Jennings, Briggs, and Peppers which should be good enough to be top 3 Def. With a new offensive minded coach and a new TE and LT, turnovers should good down this year on offense.

I hate hearing people say they dont know how good the defense will be without Urlacher. The man is one player and although he was a great leader we have played very well without him in the lineup. Briggs, Peppers and Tillman will do a great job leading this defense to success again. I dont think we will get as many turnovers as last year but bringing in Williams and drafting Bostic and Greene will make people forget about missing Urlacher pretty fast.

 

[Attractive and Rich]

Takeaways are a much more random stat than other stats used to judge good defenses. I do not expect the numbers to hold - many times interceptions and fumbles are pure luck (more so fumbles than picks).

 

[DaBearsShowPride]

Takeaways are a much more random stat than other stats used to judge good defenses. I do not expect the numbers to hold - many times interceptions and fumbles are pure luck (more so fumbles than picks).

I would disagree with you on the fumbles when talking about the Chicago Bears. Punching out the ball is natural to them and almost every fumble they cause is very legit and not based off luck. I would say interceptions are more lucky than fumbles because the QB could throw a horrible ball right into a defenders hands (Luck).

 

[Clayton]

I would disagree with you on the fumbles when talking about the Chicago Bears. Punching out the ball is natural to them and almost every fumble they cause is very legit and not based off luck. I would say interceptions are more lucky than fumbles because the QB could throw a horrible ball right into a defenders hands (Luck).

The caveat I would add to that is that fumbles are not random but recovering them is. Also interceptions like the one they had to seal the game against the Rams last year (Amendola running into Briggs, IIRC) aren't random. I think the Bears will always take the ball away as long as they have their best 4-5 players but its hard to say at what clip.

 

[Attractive and Rich]

The caveat I would add to that is that fumbles are not random but recovering them is. Also interceptions like the one they had to seal the game against the Rams last year (Amendola running into Briggs, IIRC) aren't random. I think the Bears will always take the ball away as long as they have their best 4-5 players but its hard to say at what clip.

Exactly. Impossible to predict where that ball is going to end up on a fumble. I can get on board with forcing them is not luck. A lot of picks are luck too (including Andrew Luck!!!).

 

[Nyfan1980]

Lovie Smith has always been good at getting defenses to create turnovers.


I think Tim Jennings had a fluke year.