Too early to talk about draft????

[blstoker]

That is NOT the same as 67.5% of 1st rounders start 80 games in 5 years, which is what you've said.

Interesting note - in 2014 draft (last with 5 full season), no 1st rounder started all 80 games in their first five seasons.

 

[JMR]

Interesting note - in 2014 draft (last with 5 full season), no 1st rounder started all 80 games in their first five seasons.

I'm not surprised. It's incredibly difficult to do. You have to start immediately as a rookie (so most QBs are pretty much out), and then you can't get hurt and miss a single game....in 5 years. It's a totally unrealistic way to grade anyone in the NFL. (but that's not what the article said anyway, but the dude who posted it didn't understand the article he posted)

 

[seahawksfan234]

If we do resign Clowney. I'd look for a disruptive force at DT.

Rawkon Davis of Bama comes to mind.

WalterFootball.com: 2020 NFL Draft: Defensive Tackle Rankings

I like him a lot but I worry he won't be available when the Seahawks are on the clock. I think Poona Ford has played pretty well, but if the Seahawks re-sign Clowney then we likely will move on from Reed or franchise him.

 

[Judge Fudge]

I like him a lot but I worry he won't be available when the Seahawks are on the clock. I think Poona Ford has played pretty well, but if the Seahawks re-sign Clowney then we likely will move on from Reed or franchise him.

True.

I'd keep a eye on the Kinlaw( South Carolina) and Wilson ( Florida State).

You bring up a good point with Ford and franchise. I was doing some research for my keepers in Daymans league, was trying to find out if Chubba Horward is going pro and where he will go( he is also Canadian so I kinda care about him), and i came across one that had us taking Paulson Adebo CB Colorado.

 

[MrS]

Article is 5 years old, but it gives a pretty decent look at 1st round success and failure:

NFL Draft Lab: Success Rate of First Round Picks

2007-2011 draft classes examined: 79 Successes, 80 Busts. Easy to go through and nitpick a name here and there, but it probably all comes out in the wash. So yeah, I'll stick firm on my 50% statement.

From the article:

A player will be a “bust” if he fails to provide value for the team who initially drafted him. This means that players who wash out quickly on one team, then flourish on another are still busts.

I assume you are accepting this as the standard, so by this definition, the only 1st rounders that are hits for this team and okung and thomas, the only two that were consensus picks.

We need to stop reaching, take the consensus best players in round one. No more pennys, no more ifedis, no more 3rd round trash in the 1st.

I'm not surprised. It's incredibly difficult to do. You have to start immediately as a rookie (so most QBs are pretty much out), and then you can't get hurt and miss a single game....in 5 years. It's a totally unrealistic way to grade anyone in the NFL. (but that's not what the article said anyway, but the dude who posted it didn't understand the article he posted)

Or you have to be re-signed, which when you draft garbage in round one you tend not to do.

 

[Anointed One]

From the article:


I assume you are accepting this as the standard, so by this definition, the only 1st rounders that are hits for this team and okung and thomas, the only two that were consensus picks.

We need to stop reaching, take the consensus best players in round one. No more pennys, no more ifedis, no more 3rd round trash in the 1st.



Or you have to be re-signed, which when you draft garbage in round one you tend not to do.

I'm surprised that you only focused on all the negatives in this article...

 

[JMR]

From the article:


I assume you are accepting this as the standard, so by this definition, the only 1st rounders that are hits for this team and okung and thomas, the only two that were consensus picks.

We need to stop reaching, take the consensus best players in round one. No more pennys, no more ifedis, no more 3rd round trash in the 1st.



Or you have to be re-signed, which when you draft garbage in round one you tend not to do.

You've sucked so bad at trying to objectively back up your opinion in this argument that I just honestly don't give a crap what you think about the topic at this point. Go Hawks!!

 

[MrS]

You've sucked so bad at trying to objectively back up your opinion in this argument that I just honestly don't give a crap what you think about the topic at this point. Go Hawks!!

You could have an opinion thats your own, or is that too hard to do? Youre still on the "everything the seahawks do is gud" bandwagon.

At least admit they have done jack shit in round one since their first year. If you dare.

 

[Screamin12th]

Snuggles is right the Hawks history with 1st round picks is NOT good with PC and JS and it tends to lean on the fact they have been reaching. Taking players that most people believe were reaches.

The great pick of Thomas and the good pick of Okung doesn't make all the other bad picks better.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You've sucked so bad at trying to objectively back up your opinion in this argument that I just honestly don't give a crap what you think about the topic at this point. Go Hawks!!

I've only skimmed the discussion between you and @MrSnuggles2k2 but as much as it pains me to say it, I somewhat have to agree with him on the Seahawks lack of success on first round picks. They have "reached" on various players who have turned out to be busts (however you label that). The strategy of "reaching" for players for the Seahawks has worked out with a number of players (Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, etc.) but hasn't worked out for probably twice as many other players. You can argue that the successes outweighed the failures, but they have had a number of questionable picks that didn't pan out.

I do think we'd all agree that with the exception of Russell Okung and maybe Justin Britt that the Seahawks have been impressively awful when it comes to drafting offensive linemen.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

The FO does reach on first rounders but I can't put Penny has a reach as they didn't have a second rounder plus the question marks at the RB position leading up to the draft. So many injuries that no one could for see Carson staying healthy and becoming what he is now.

 

[JMR]

I've only skimmed the discussion between you and @MrSnuggles2k2 but as much as it pains me to say it, I somewhat have to agree with him on the Seahawks lack of success on first round picks. They have "reached" on various players who have turned out to be busts (however you label that). The strategy of "reaching" for players for the Seahawks has worked out with a number of players (Wilson, Wagner, Sherman, etc.) but hasn't worked out for probably twice as many other players. You can argue that the successes outweighed the failures, but they have had a number of questionable picks that didn't pan out.

I do think we'd all agree that with the exception of Russell Okung and maybe Justin Britt that the Seahawks have been impressively awful when it comes to drafting offensive linemen.

That's fine. My main point was bigger than the Hawks anyway -- it was that about 50% of 1st round picks fail. So while we can look at some of the Hawks 1st rounders and wish we would have done better, the rest of the league isn't doing any better in the aggregate and the "consensus" picks (which I still think is a load of crap) fail at about the same rate as anything else.

 

[MrS]

That's fine. My main point was bigger than the Hawks anyway -- it was that about 50% of 1st round picks fail. So while we can look at some of the Hawks 1st rounders and wish we would have done better, the rest of the league isn't doing any better in the aggregate and the "consensus" picks (which I still think is a load of crap) fail at about the same rate as anything else.

Do you have any evidence that reaches are just as likely to succeed as consensus picks?

Im trying to set actual criteria for what a 1st round success is, youre stuck on an article that rated every pick individually and not statistically and came up with 50%.

So far, out reaches have not worked out, or only consensus picks did

 

[blstoker]

It's well known that Seattle hasn't blown away their first round picks, but some people are making it seem like they are whiffing on their picks, which really isn't the case. At worst the only thing that can be said is that they are about average in their drafting of day one players since Carrol has taken over. Overall, using AV, the players taken by Seattle compare favorably to their draft position.

Russell Okung - 2010 - pick 6 - 54AV

Okung has produced an average of 6 AV per season at a draft position that averages 6.55 AV per season. Below Average.

Earl Thomas - 2010 - pick 14 - 72AV

Thomas has produced an average of 8 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.91 AV per season. Significantly above average

James Carpenter - 2011 - pick 25 - 39AV

Carpenter has produced an average of 4.88 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.24 AV per season. Above Average

Bruce Irvin - 2012 - pick 15 - 37AV

Thomas has produced an average of 5.29 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.53 AV per season. Slightly Below Average

Germain Ifedi - 2016 - pick 31 - 19AV

Thomas has produced an average of 6.67 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.62 AV per season. Significantly Above Average.

Rashaad Penny - 2018 - pick 27 - 4AV

Thomas has produced an average of 4 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.16 AV per season. Significantly Below Average


It's not like Seattle is picking top 10 every year and their guys aren't producing to that level. They're picking late in the round most years, if they even make their pick in the first round anyway.

 

[seattlefan75]

It's well known that Seattle hasn't blown away their first round picks, but some people are making it seem like they are whiffing on their picks, which really isn't the case. At worst the only thing that can be said is that they are about average in their drafting of day one players since Carrol has taken over. Overall, using AV, the players taken by Seattle compare favorably to their draft position.

Russell Okung - 2010 - pick 6 - 54AV

Okung has produced an average of 6 AV per season at a draft position that averages 6.55 AV per season. Below Average.

Earl Thomas - 2010 - pick 14 - 72AV

Thomas has produced an average of 8 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.91 AV per season. Significantly above average

James Carpenter - 2011 - pick 25 - 39AV

Carpenter has produced an average of 4.88 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.24 AV per season. Above Average

Bruce Irvin - 2012 - pick 15 - 37AV

Thomas has produced an average of 5.29 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.53 AV per season. Slightly Below Average

Germain Ifedi - 2016 - pick 31 - 19AV

Thomas has produced an average of 6.67 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.62 AV per season. Significantly Above Average.

Rashaad Penny - 2018 - pick 27 - 4AV

Thomas has produced an average of 4 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.16 AV per season. Significantly Below Average


It's not like Seattle is picking top 10 every year and their guys aren't producing to that level. They're picking late in the round most years, if they even make their pick in the first round anyway.

Yeah people have a ridiculous expectation of that if your player drafted in the first round isn't a pro bowler he is a bust aside from penny in which time will tell the rest of the players on that list at a minimum will have a solid career in the NFL and make millions

 

[JMR]

There's been only 5 picks in the 1st round since 2010. Penny hasn't even finished year #2 yet, so saying he's already a bust is asinine in my view. He's on the bench because we have Chris Carson, who was 5th in the league in rushing last year and so far in '19 is 7th (10 yards away from being 5th). Penny has averaged 4.8 per carry in his limited opportunities. That is far from where a bust would perform. I'm not declaring him a success, so save the false dilemma logic, but it's too early to say he's a failed pick/player. He certainly may end up that way or just may end up working out somewhere else, but Chris Carson being really good doesn't make Penny a lesser player.

And you don't write off any 1st round pick 10 games into their first season, so LJ Collier can't even be evaluated.

So that leaves 3 other 1st round picks since 2010 that we can make final judgment on: Bruce Irvin, James Carpenter, & Ifedi Both of the first 2 players are still NFL starters -- Irvin in year 8 now and Carpenter year 9. Carpenter had issues here, but he's started every single game since leaving in 2015. No issues with calling Ifedi a failed 1st rounder.

 

[JMR]

It's well known that Seattle hasn't blown away their first round picks, but some people are making it seem like they are whiffing on their picks, which really isn't the case. At worst the only thing that can be said is that they are about average in their drafting of day one players since Carrol has taken over. Overall, using AV, the players taken by Seattle compare favorably to their draft position.

Russell Okung - 2010 - pick 6 - 54AV

Okung has produced an average of 6 AV per season at a draft position that averages 6.55 AV per season. Below Average.

Earl Thomas - 2010 - pick 14 - 72AV

Thomas has produced an average of 8 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.91 AV per season. Significantly above average

James Carpenter - 2011 - pick 25 - 39AV

Carpenter has produced an average of 4.88 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.24 AV per season. Above Average

Bruce Irvin - 2012 - pick 15 - 37AV

Thomas has produced an average of 5.29 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.53 AV per season. Slightly Below Average

Germain Ifedi - 2016 - pick 31 - 19AV

Thomas has produced an average of 6.67 AV per season at a draft position that averages 4.62 AV per season. Significantly Above Average.

Rashaad Penny - 2018 - pick 27 - 4AV

Thomas has produced an average of 4 AV per season at a draft position that averages 5.16 AV per season. Significantly Below Average


It's not like Seattle is picking top 10 every year and their guys aren't producing to that level. They're picking late in the round most years, if they even make their pick in the first round anyway.

Interesting stuff. I guess the thing that sticks out to me the most is it seems Ifedi grades out the best since ET, but it seems he's struggled pretty bad here and won't be back next year. I thought his 2018 season was terrible, but maybe he's been decent this season.

 

[blstoker]

Interesting stuff. I guess the thing that sticks out to me the most is it seems Ifedi grades out the best since ET, but it seems he's struggled pretty bad here and won't be back next year. I thought his 2018 season was terrible, but maybe he's been decent this season.

Ifedi’s AV has been 6, 7 & 7 through is first three years, which are typical starter AVs for OLine. Not gonna day he’s been great, but he took a huge step forward last year and is having an even better year this year.

My only point is that picking #31 (Ifedi) is different than picking #1-10.

 

[seahawksfan234]

That's fine. My main point was bigger than the Hawks anyway -- it was that about 50% of 1st round picks fail. So while we can look at some of the Hawks 1st rounders and wish we would have done better, the rest of the league isn't doing any better in the aggregate and the "consensus" picks (which I still think is a load of crap) fail at about the same rate as anything else.

Fair enough. Also I somewhat forgot that the Seahawks have only taken a player in the first round 3 times between 2011-2017. I will say that two of those three picks (Carpenter and Ifedi) were considered "reaches" and neither played very well. I will say that I'm stunned James Carpenter is still in the NFL. From my arm-chair scout perspective I thought he was awful during his time with the Seahawks.

 

[MrS]

Okung and thomas were good and great picks.

Carpenter was a total bust, i dont consider playing well on other teams to be criteria to claim good drafting.

Ifedi is trash

Penny is a 1st round back, that should mean instant starter. If wee didnt need that, then its a completely wasted pick

Collier has done literally nothing. Is it yoo much to ask that 1st round picks contribute in year one?

For fucks sake, all i want is for them to take a guy that is rated as a 1st rounder. Wait for the guy you want in round 1, take him round 3 where he belongs.

Honestly i believe taking wilson in the 3rd has fucked with their heads. They feel "hey if we think this guy will be a stud we shouldnt wait til round 3 where he belongs, muh russell wilson"