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Too early to talk about draft????

seahawksfan234

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I may not expect them to either, but it wouldn't be the first time JS went an unexpected direction early in the draft. DT could be a bit thin if Reed leaves.

I don't think a Seahawks draft has gone the way I expected since we drafted Russell Okung and Earl Thomas in the first round years ago. I've always been surprised by the picks.

Agreed on DT. Al Woods has been a pleasant surprise, but I personally don't think Reed is worth re-signing. I think that he's a solid player but he could cash in off the season he had in 2018. I don't think he's worth the money he'd command from the Seahawks.
 

MrS

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Well, I think we have to keep in mind that about 50% of 1st round picks fail.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/amp/

About 50% are all pros, so if not being an all pro once in your career is failure then ok.

In reality, 2 out of 3 first rounders starts at least 80 games. So maybe 33% are failures.

I believe taking reaches in round one gives you a much lower rate of starting for 5 years. But maybe thats just me.

I agree going heavy on OL and DL, but I think we're good at RB with Carson and Penny. We also drafted Travis Homer in the 6th or 7th round last year so we won't have a hole there in terms of personnel.

Year 2 and penny has shown nothing, he is a huge bust at this point.

Carson has one more year and then he is gone, i dont see any way we keep him unless he signs a bargain basement deal. We will need more RBs.
 

wazzu31

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Well they had an easy shot at the best safety in next years draft in the supplementary draft this year but passed. Jalen Thompson > any safety on the roster.
 

seattlefan75

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I think someone said it right earlier we need to continue to focus on the OL and get a TE these back to back season ending injuries to Dissley is concerning and we have no depth at the OL position Ifedi might not come back, Brown is old, Iupati is on a 1 year deal and to this day we don't seem to have a plan for Ethan Pocic whom is on IR
 

JMR

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JMR

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I don't think a Seahawks draft has gone the way I expected since we drafted Russell Okung and Earl Thomas in the first round years ago. I've always been surprised by the picks.

Agreed on DT. Al Woods has been a pleasant surprise, but I personally don't think Reed is worth re-signing. I think that he's a solid player but he could cash in off the season he had in 2018. I don't think he's worth the money he'd command from the Seahawks.
I guess I see Reed a bit differently. He was Aaron Donald lite last year, and he started a bit slowly this season after the suspension but might be rounding into form now that he's at the end of his pre-season equivalent. If we get the '18 version for the rest of '19 (which is what we saw on MNF), then I think he establishes himself as one of the best DTs in the game. If he isn't back in '20, it may be because he's just too expensive and not because he isn't a top flight player.
 

Judge Fudge

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I'm not a huge Clowney fan but I admit. When he is on, he is a manster( half man, half monster). I just am a little "perturbed' by the lack of sacks.

That is why I say we need a finisher. The problem is Reed is a finisher.
 

MrS

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I agree going heavy on OL and DL, but I think we're good at RB with Carson and Penny. We also drafted Travis Homer in the 6th or 7th round last year so we won't have a hole there in terms of personnel.
No, that's not what the article says. It says that when given an All Pro, 48% have been 1st round picks That is NOT the same as 48% of 1st round picks are All Pro. It was also ONLY looking at 2012-2014, so that's a pretty small window of time across the history of the draft.

Youre right.

Still two thirds are 5 year starters, i would accept that as a success in a 1st round pick.
 

seahawksfan234

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I guess I see Reed a bit differently. He was Aaron Donald lite last year, and he started a bit slowly this season after the suspension but might be rounding into form now that he's at the end of his pre-season equivalent. If we get the '18 version for the rest of '19 (which is what we saw on MNF), then I think he establishes himself as one of the best DTs in the game. If he isn't back in '20, it may be because he's just too expensive and not because he isn't a top flight player.

In terms of sack numbers Reed played really well last year and maybe I'm being over reliant on PFF's analysis but they graded him as average in 2018. His 2018 season was mostly weird to me because when he came out of Alabama he was considered a guy who can play the run extremely well but offered little as a pass rusher and prior to 2018 wasn't much of a pass rusher. I just find it strange that a guy goes from 3 sacks, 5 TFL, and 12 QB hits over his first 30 games to 10.5 sacks, 12 TFL and 24 QB hits in his third year. I could be wrong and if he finishes the season strong I'll feel differently, but I don't feel like Reed's 2018 season was representative of the player he really and I'm somewhat skeptical on his long term prospects.

Hopefully come the offseason I'm wrong because if he's able to replicate his 2018 performance for the remainder of 2019 it would be a huge boost to the defense.
 

seahawksfan234

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I'm not a huge Clowney fan but I admit. When he is on, he is a manster( half man, half monster). I just am a little "perturbed' by the lack of sacks.

That is why I say we need a finisher. The problem is Reed is a finisher.

Despite Clowney's low sack total, he has 32 pressures this year. Rest of the Seahawks edge rushers only have 27 combined.
 

seahawksfan234

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I think someone said it right earlier we need to continue to focus on the OL and get a TE these back to back season ending injuries to Dissley is concerning and we have no depth at the OL position Ifedi might not come back, Brown is old, Iupati is on a 1 year deal and to this day we don't seem to have a plan for Ethan Pocic whom is on IR

My UW bias is showing but despite the season ending injuries I have faith that Dissly will bounce back. When he went down with the knee injury last year, most didn't expect him to be available until the fourth week or so of 2019 and was ready week 1.
 

JMR

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Still two thirds are 5 year starters, i would accept that as a success in a 1st round pick.
Ok, we'll go with that....a 1st round pick is a success if they are 5 year starters.

Here are the 1st round picks by year in the JS/PC era:
  • 2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas -- both 5 year starters, 1 surefire HOFer.
  • 2011: James Carpenter. 5 year starter.
  • 2012: Bruce Irvin. 5 year starter.
No first round picks in 2013, 2014, or 2015. 2016 is Ifedi, and he's been a starter all 4 years in the league so far.

So I guess they are hitting the mark with 1st round picks after all, eh? Or do we have to move the goal posts so we can still make the claim that their 1st round picks are reaches and they just need to go with the "consensus" BPA?
 

Judge Fudge

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MrS

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  • 2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas -- both 5 year starters, 1 surefire HOFer. Consensus picks
  • 2011: James Carpenter. 5 year starter. Started 39 games, not 80.
  • 2012: Bruce Irvin. 5 year starter. Started 37 games, not 80.
You will say i moved the goal posts, but the 5 year starter means 80 games like the article states. Even ifedi wont make 80 unless we resign him which seems doutbful at this point.

Penny will never make 80 games started. A first round pick should be a starter from day one. Our team isnt that stacked and never has been on offense.
 

JMR

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  • 2010: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas -- both 5 year starters, 1 surefire HOFer. Consensus picks
  • 2011: James Carpenter. 5 year starter. Started 39 games, not 80.
  • 2012: Bruce Irvin. 5 year starter. Started 37 games, not 80.
You will say i moved the goal posts, but the 5 year starter means 80 games like the article states. Even ifedi wont make 80 unless we resign him which seems doutbful at this point.

Penny will never make 80 games started. A first round pick should be a starter from day one. Our team isnt that stacked and never has been on offense.
This has reached absolute stupidity level.
 

MrS

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80 games is 5 years, we havent had many 1st round picks play out their 5 year contract.

Bad sign, dont you think?

Penny wont either, ill be surprised if he is even on the team next year.
 

JMR

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80 games is 5 years, we havent had many 1st round picks play out their 5 year contract.

Bad sign, dont you think?

Penny wont either, ill be surprised if he is even on the team next year.
You just can't be this fog-brained.

You have now twice demonstrated that you are not able to accurately interpret or even repeat the article that YOU posted. First you quoted the article to say 50% of 1st rounders are All Pro, which was totally wrong (and you acknowledged as much, good on you). Now you're saying the article says 2/3 of 1st rounders have 80 starts in their first 5 years?? No, that's NOT what it says. Let me see if I can break it down for you Barney style. The article you shared was written in 2015. The portion of your article that you fumbled on the 2nd attempt looked at % of games started since 2010 (80 regular season games as of May 2015 when the article was written) by players picked in the 2010 draft only. Of all those games in that span, 67.5% of games started by 2010 draft picks were players from round 1 of that draft. That is NOT the same as 67.5% of 1st rounders start 80 games in 5 years, which is what you've said. Holy shit man.

Whatever it is you're good at, stick with that. This ain't it.
 

MrS

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Ya i misread the all pro part, i admitted i was wrong.

But if you want to give us your own definition of successfully drafting in the first round beyond a unfounded assumption that 50% are failures.

By all means, show us how you came to that conclusion.

If you think its a "success" when you take a guy round 1 and he is only good AFTER he leaves your team then ok, we can go with that.

But id rather see success on OUR team and so far we havent seen any of that since the earl thomas draft.
 

JMR

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Article is 5 years old, but it gives a pretty decent look at 1st round success and failure:

NFL Draft Lab: Success Rate of First Round Picks

2007-2011 draft classes examined: 79 Successes, 80 Busts. Easy to go through and nitpick a name here and there, but it probably all comes out in the wash. So yeah, I'll stick firm on my 50% statement.
 

Screamin12th

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i would jump for joy if they grabbed Curtis Weaver in the 1st round. Doubt he will be on the board though when the Hawks pick. Clowney gets doubled teamed the most in the NFL as a edge rusher. Yes you heard that right. He is the Most double teamed edge rusher in the NFL.

little snip it from a Mock draft that has the Hawks taking Weaver.
"The former Gamecock can't do it himself, and opposing offenses know this and have made Clowney the most double-teamed edge rusher in the NFL this year with a 30% double-team rate - more than guys like J.J. Watt, Kahlil Mack, and Aaron Donald - someone has to start taking advantage."
 
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