The what if of 2015

[NetsGotBanned21]

So I know a lot of people will wonder if we can move on from Romo next year. Start fresh, new coaching staff, new team etc. I believe the only way you do this is if Romo shows this season he can't hold up, he is not a top QB anymore, and this last game was not simply just one of those games, that it is a thing to come, and we end up with a top 3-5 pick in this years coming draft.

As we stand now, without a Dez deal we have a cap number of about 137MM going into the 2015 season. Now lets just say that the cap goes up to 150MM next season, big jump; but possible with the revenue the NFL is generating.

Now while we do have a 137MM cap figure for next year, this is not totally true. Here is why:

1.) Doug Free contract is a team option which has an 11MM cap hit for 2015, which we will not pick up (the reason we drafted Martin was for this). Therefore that cap hold now goes down to about 3MM for bonuses that are due.

2.) Henry Melton has a team option of 9.25MM on the 2015 cap, which if he does not play up to par, or the team believes they can land an upgrade at the 3-tech like a Suh (which Suh's first year cap hit would be lower than Melton's 2015 cap hit one would assume) than this contract would then be void and the cap hold would go down to about 250k for bonus due.


3.) We have a current cap carry over of about 6MM in extra space this year, which would be applied to next year's cap if not used.

With all this together we would have about 20MM of cap space to add if Melton and Free are dropped and we use half of the cap space we have left this year, which would give us a cap number of about 117MM for next year.

Now a look into Romo's contract, he is on the books for right now about 27.5MM in dead money, this was before the 7.5MM of 2015 was guaranteed due to him being on the roster the 3rd business day of the 2014 season, which now means he has a dead figure of about 35MM for 2015. Now if we are going to cut Romo we would have to do it before the 3rd business day of the 2015 league year due to the fact another 7.5MM will be guaranteed if we wait.

You say no way we can take a 35MM cap hit in 2015; but the reality is yes we can. Romo already has a cap hold of about 28MM for 2015 so you would only be adding another 7MM to that number. Still a lot to take in? Well let's look at the numbers again if you let go of Melton and Free and you have a cap number of 150MM in 2015. By projections you have a projected cap number of 150MM - 117MM (the number after you decline the Free and Melton options and add another 3MM in from the 6MM in cap space we have now this season as a carry over) = 33MM in space - 7MM (the amount added to cut Romo from the existing dead money already figured in) = 25MM in space.

This is a lot of space to work with, this is before you cut a Brandon Carr or restructure a T.Smith (which would create about 8-9MM in space). The reality of it is Romo can come off the books next season; and if he does we are in complete rebuild.


The good news is that as I projected early last year we are not in cap hell and never were. Even if we keep Romo and Melton we'd still have about 23MM in space with a projected cap number of 150MM in 2015. No matter if you want to rebuild or load up, you can do either, and that is with a Dez contract in place.

 

[UK Cowboy]

So I know a lot of people will wonder if we can move on from Romo next year. Start fresh, new coaching staff, new team etc. I believe the only way you do this is if Romo shows this season he can't hold up, he is not a top QB anymore, and this last game was not simply just one of those games, that it is a thing to come, and we end up with a top 3-5 pick in this years coming draft.

As we stand now, without a Dez deal we have a cap number of about 137MM going into the 2015 season. Now lets just say that the cap goes up to 150MM next season, big jump; but possible with the revenue the NFL is generating.

Now while we do have a 137MM cap figure for next year, this is not totally true. Here is why:

1.) Doug Free contract is a team option which has an 11MM cap hit for 2015, which we will not pick up (the reason we drafted Martin was for this). Therefore that cap hold now goes down to about 3MM for bonuses that are due.

2.) Henry Melton has a team option of 9.25MM on the 2015 cap, which if he does not play up to par, or the team believes they can land an upgrade at the 3-tech like a Suh (which Suh's first year cap hit would be lower than Melton's 2015 cap hit one would assume) than this contract would then be void and the cap hold would go down to about 250k for bonus due.


3.) We have a current cap carry over of about 6MM in extra space this year, which would be applied to next year's cap if not used.

With all this together we would have about 20MM of cap space to add if Melton and Free are dropped and we use half of the cap space we have left this year, which would give us a cap number of about 117MM for next year.

Now a look into Romo's contract, he is on the books for right now about 27.5MM in dead money, this was before the 7.5MM of 2015 was guaranteed due to him being on the roster the 3rd business day of the 2014 season, which now means he has a dead figure of about 35MM for 2015. Now if we are going to cut Romo we would have to do it before the 3rd business day of the 2015 league year due to the fact another 7.5MM will be guaranteed if we wait.

You say no way we can take a 35MM cap hit in 2015; but the reality is yes we can. Romo already has a cap hold of about 28MM for 2015 so you would only be adding another 7MM to that number. Still a lot to take in? Well let's look at the numbers again if you let go of Melton and Free and you have a cap number of 150MM in 2015. By projections you have a projected cap number of 150MM - 117MM (the number after you decline the Free and Melton options and add another 3MM in from the 6MM in cap space we have now this season as a carry over) = 33MM in space - 7MM (the amount added to cut Romo from the existing dead money already figured in) = 25MM in space.

This is a lot of space to work with, this is before you cut a Brandon Carr or restructure a T.Smith (which would create about 8-9MM in space). The reality of it is Romo can come off the books next season; and if he does we are in complete rebuild.


The good news is that as I projected early last year we are not in cap hell and never were. Even if we keep Romo and Melton we'd still have about 23MM in space with a projected cap number of 150MM in 2015. No matter if you want to rebuild or load up, you can do either, and that is with a Dez contract in place.

I think you can forward that to Jerry When he finishes his Johnny Walker

 

[CarlSr]

If Romo is awful this year and the Cowboys get a top 5 pick, I could see them possibly drafting their next QB. I do wonder how much Jerry regrets not drafting Manziel. He could scratch that itch in the next draft. I'm guessing they'd try to hang with Romo to start 2015, but NLT 2016, he'd be out of that job due to public pressure if nothing else.

Anyway, nice work. I'm with you from the perspective that it's not impossible to move on before most people seem to think they can, although it's arguably improbable.

 

[UK Cowboy]

If Romo is awful this year and the Cowboys get a top 5 pick, I could see them possibly drafting their next QB. I do wonder how much Jerry regrets not drafting Manziel. He could scratch that itch in the next draft. I'm guessing they'd try to hang with Romo to start 2015, but NLT 2016, he'd be out of that job due to public pressure if nothing else.

Anyway, nice work. I'm with you from the perspective that it's not impossible to move on before most people seem to think they can, although it's arguably improbable.

You are probably right, but I would love to see them take the highest rated defensive player on their board if they were top 5. Same with the 2nd round. Using #1's has steadily turned out pitiful OL into a solid unit. The same needs to happen for our D now. I would like to see them draft a QB at some point each year though. A 4th rounder on Aaron Murray this year would have been a nice risk to take IMO

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

Is Gregory - Nebraska- the best pass rusher??

 

[UK Cowboy]

Is Gregory - Nebraska- the best pass rusher??

Probably so, but I think the best defender in the class will end up being DT Michael Bennett out of OSU

 

[NetsGotBanned21]

I will get a list of DL players in this years FA class. I think I'd build through FA on DL since it is so far off, and draft a Marcus Mariotta, who I have a man crush on as a player. Good kid and very talented player.

 

[Manster7588]

I will get a list of DL players in this years FA class. I think I'd build through FA on DL since it is so far off, and draft a Marcus Mariotta, who I have a man crush on as a player. Good kid and very talented player.

So let's play the Cap game. Say we cut Romo and Draft Mariotta. How much cap space do we have for FA DLmen?

If we cut Romo and go the rookie QB route I don't see how we can afford any real FA's. If we go this route we are officially in REBUILD mode. Now we know Jerry can't say rebuild without choking.

Nets you can talk Cap way above my head but I don't see how it would be possible.

 

[ArlingtonCowboys100]

I will get a list of DL players in this years FA class. I think I'd build through FA on DL since it is so far off, and draft a Marcus Mariotta, who I have a man crush on as a player. Good kid and very talented player.

Mariota going to be a top qb. Best qb coming out since luck

 

[Manster7588]

Mariota going to be a top qb. Best qb coming out since luck

Tell me wise one. How many times has the projected #1 pick not gone#1? There is absolutely no way we know who is the #1 pick in 15, but you just keep coming with your absolute statements.

 

[NetsGotBanned21]

So let's play the Cap game. Say we cut Romo and Draft Mariotta. How much cap space do we have for FA DLmen?

If we cut Romo and go the rookie QB route I don't see how we can afford any real FA's. If we go this route we are officially in REBUILD mode. Now we know Jerry can't say rebuild without choking.

Nets you can talk Cap way above my head but I don't see how it would be possible.

Let's say the cap goes to 150 next season and we decline options on Melton and Free and we cut Romo, we'd have 20-25MM in space without me looking at the numbers. Let's say you need more well you restructure Smith's deal which creates another 8-9MM and because his deal is so long and he is so young and doesn't have much dead money on his deal he would be perfect to do. So then you have about 30MM going into FA and you know Dez will have a monster deal, BUT his first year cap number will be low, probably 6-7MM range which takes us back down to the mid 20's again.

The thing about cutting Romo is you can now afford to give a guy like Suh a low number next year but high in 2016 because the Romo cut opens up 17.5MM in 2016 and over 20MM each of the next 3 years after that, which would all be years you are paying Marcus to play at around 6-7MM per a season. Not to get to complicated; but you can do it with ease if and that is a big IF they or should I say Jerry wants to do it.

I haven't even got to the fact of cutting Carr June 1st for rookie money yet, or anyone else restructure. Think of it this way starting 2016 you take numbers as they are now Romo cap hit about 17.5 and Marcus would be about 6.5 and because you took all dead money on Romo come 2015 there is nothing left so you gain 11MM in cap space 2016, and 15MM plus the three years after that.

I personally think it is a dream because Jerry loves Jason Witten, Garrett, and Romo; and because of this I expect those three to be here for at least 3 more years; BUT if it was me and we finish with a chance at being able to get Marcus in draft I'd start fresh, hire Tony Dungy, Harbaugh, or maybe even Bob Stoops as my coach and start fresh with this youth and be in contention the next 7-10 years with a monster D and YOUNG franchise QB.

Think of it like this, how are the Niners and Seahawks able to afford such D talent, it's cause their qbs weren't making Romo money. I honestly think Romo as of last year was better than Wilson and Kap, this year yet to be determined, BUT the NFL proves you don't need the best QB to win, just a great D. SF, Seattle, look at Eli overhyped self when he won those bowls, look at Trent Dilfer. Then look at a guy like Marino who never won, etc. I just think it is time to start fresh at certain spots so we don't miss out on the prime years of Dez, Lee, Smith, etc.

 

[Manster7588]

Let's say the cap goes to 150 next season and we decline options on Melton and Free and we cut Romo, we'd have 20-25MM in space without me looking at the numbers. Let's say you need more well you restructure Smith's deal which creates another 8-9MM and because his deal is so long and he is so young and doesn't have much dead money on his deal he would be perfect to do. So then you have about 30MM going into FA and you know Dez will have a monster deal, BUT his first year cap number will be low, probably 6-7MM range which takes us back down to the mid 20's again.

The thing about cutting Romo is you can now afford to give a guy like Suh a low number next year but high in 2016 because the Romo cut opens up 17.5MM in 2016 and over 20MM each of the next 3 years after that, which would all be years you are paying Marcus to play at around 6-7MM per a season. Not to get to complicated; but you can do it with ease if and that is a big IF they or should I say Jerry wants to do it.

I haven't even got to the fact of cutting Carr June 1st for rookie money yet, or anyone else restructure. Think of it this way starting 2016 you take numbers as they are now Romo cap hit about 17.5 and Marcus would be about 6.5 and because you took all dead money on Romo come 2015 there is nothing left so you gain 11MM in cap space 2016, and 15MM plus the three years after that.

I personally think it is a dream because Jerry loves Jason Witten, Garrett, and Romo; and because of this I expect those three to be here for at least 3 more years; BUT if it was me and we finish with a chance at being able to get Marcus in draft I'd start fresh, hire Tony Dungy, Harbaugh, or maybe even Bob Stoops as my coach and start fresh with this youth and be in contention the next 7-10 years with a monster D and YOUNG franchise QB.

Think of it like this, how are the Niners and Seahawks able to afford such D talent, it's cause their qbs weren't making Romo money. I honestly think Romo as of last year was better than Wilson and Kap, this year yet to be determined, BUT the NFL proves you don't need the best QB to win, just a great D. SF, Seattle, look at Eli overhyped self when he won those bowls, look at Trent Dilfer. Then look at a guy like Marino who never won, etc. I just think it is time to start fresh at certain spots so we don't miss out on the prime years of Dez, Lee, Smith, etc.

Nets I'm not going to try to argue the cap with because I'm at a huge disadvantage. I just know for every player we let go we have to replace. Paying guys while they play for someone else is a bad way to run an organization. Too bad this has become a common practice with this team.

 

[NetsGotBanned21]

Nets I'm not going to try to argue the cap with because I'm at a huge disadvantage. I just know for every player we let go we have to replace. Paying guys while they play for someone else is a bad way to run an organization. Too bad this has become a common practice with this team.

Only way to do it is with Rookies, think of it this way, we are pay DWare and replaced him with Lawrence, we are not getting the full benefit of it until next year when Ware will be fully off the cap and we are only paying Lawrence pennies vs I think close to 20MM for Ware next year if he was still on the team. Romo will cost close to 28MM next year if on the team with no restructure, if we cut him before the 3rd business day of next season he would cost about 35MM next season plus if we replace him with Marcus at a top three pick the QB starter including Romo dead money will cost about 41MM next season. That is a lot for one position; however if you look at 2016's benefit of that spot only costing us 7MM versus at least 22MM if Romo is on the team in 2016 you see that it is worth it, you then for the next few years are a me to stop with restructures, load up on other spots for talent such as the neglected DL and shameful secondary. Just an opinion of how it should be. Trust me won't happen, but just a thought.