The season has started

[JohnU]

As soon as the damned parade clears the intersection.
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson?
Joltin' Joe is face-down in the hay.
Coo-coo-ka-choo, Mrs. Robinson ... you are the walrus? Well, you kinda look like a whale, not at all what Anne Bancroft showed us.

So the rest of you are now entitled to evaluate this baseball team at the count of 1 ... 2 ... anna ... the loverly Lennon sisters will-a perform-a the nashnul anthem-uh.

Just fuckin' around.
But since the season hasn't started yet, I can only reflect on the 10-19 season the Reds compiled in Arizon-xas. I know, I know ... that last game won't be rescheduled, which would have given Kivlehan another chance to show he belongs.

Starting with the pitchers:
Homer Bailey is not the $108 million man he once was.
Luis Castillo is 2 years away from being the glorious answer to Mario Soto.
Anthony DeSclafani has too many capital letters in his name. He's also just another righthanded pitcher.
Sal Romano is a version of Rick Reuchsel, which is not all bad.
Amir Garrett and Brandon Finnegan are both lefthanded. They are not related in any other way.

Bullpens that include Quack and maybe Shack are depending on way too much divine intervention.
That reminds me of Ronny Cedeno, but that reminds me of the Reds utility infield.
At least that's better this year, unless Dick Williams is lying.
Do you trust Dick?

 

[chico ruiz]

i have more confidence in mahle than most fans. he'll hit bumps in the road, but imo there's more credibility in his perfect game and no-hiiter than bailey's. but, more importantly and once again, the reds will find themselves in a innings crunch situation come late august. maybe -once again, maybe- desclafani (or whoever) can assuage that reality. the innings thing would really be exaggerated if the reds were in contention for a wild card spot come mid-august. let's face it, it's the one glaring piece of obvious evidence we have that the reds cannot compete for the playoffs. ah hell, you guys know all this stuff. i think 2019 has always been the target date / year for legitimacy in front office minds. segueing me to . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . something that gets overlooked / lost in the shuffle, and part of what we're seeing, with the reds, is due to the general manager transition. let's face it; williams was handed a shit sandwich. william's -i believe- sees clearly that in addition to the draft and international scouting / signings that also some trades have to be made to acquire good young prospect / players to go into the farm system. it's my opinion that for a small market team it is not a wish but a necessity. the combination of those acquisition methods (draft, international signs, trades) is what keeps a mlb smaller market organization healthy. that model is continuously turning things over with established big leaguers traded while at their highest value in return for prospects. it is a challenging and difficult business model that doesn't include 10 year / 250 million dollar contracts. what if the reds had signed votto to a early contract extension in 2008? let's say 6 years / 40 million through 2015. the options that would have opened for the reds are almost all positive. imagine the prospect haul the reds could have got in 2013 or 2014 for a player like votto who was hypothetically 7 million a year with 2 years left on his contract. it's an extreme example, but no less relevant to the 2018 mlb small market team reality.

early signings are a integral part of the organizational business model. if suarez goes 30 / 90 2 years in a row, the reds are in the catbird seat with possible high transactional value. keep him? sure, why not. trade him to a team that is desperate? the options and possibilities are endless because his contract is attractive. and, if as an organization, from top to bottom, you operate understanding that 100 million dollar a year payroll is your limit you can't screw up too badly. consistency form the field to the execs. show me an organization that goes from 120 million to 90 million to 110 million to 80 million and i'll show you a confused and failing organization. a defeated organization with very poor leadership and discipline.

i could be wrong and probably am, but i think williams is trying to rejigger the entire system. and that takes some time. i look for the reds to make some kingery-like signings in the next few years. the suarez signing was a opportune move. it signals to me that they're very serious about developing versatile players who can play multiple positions on a full time basis. it's no easy task. baseball is a individual ultra focus game defensively and offensively.

i don't think williams views developing talent to be as much of a crap shoot as some other posters seem to believe. especially when you have very high draft picks or acquire highly rated top 50 prospect talent. maybe i'm wrong, but i also believe there are aspects of his position that he's learning on the job. again, that's ok. but, it takes time because mistakes will be made. for example, some of my above trade hypotheticals could go bust. point being: he's a completely different animal, than the last guy, who is taking a meticulous and methodical approach to restructuring.

what i've noticed in the last decade is drafting, scouting, instruction, developing, coaching at all levels, and the guys with coke bottle glasses, in cubicles, all work in tandem on successful teams. they're constantly talking to each other. it's really the same big department. if it's not? your organization has a serious problem. i could be wrong, but i believe williams understands this conceptually and he's only at he beginning of implementation.

based on all that, i'm optimistic about the reds going forward. i'm hopeful that the reds are a .500 club this year, as opposed to next year. some things have to go right -health & development- for that to happen, but i don't think it's completely unrealistic when compared to 2016 & 17.

 

[JohnU]

Chico, some nice points. The main one being the Reds position in the standings should be yielding better draft picks. I think getting a couple of guys over the next year or so will be a nice way to build. I never believed you could draft an entire roster from HS/juco kids in one season. But a Mahle here, a Senzel there, later on Hunter Greene or Ty Stephenson, a franchise can be relevant. I think the trick is to not overlook what's there. Rafael DePaula, anyone?

I start out every season thinking it's April 1961 and knowing that it may end up being April 1982. I think this team can be relevant this season though to what degree, it's a matter of my own definition of that.

As far as old contracts or former strategies, the whole of the game has become one of computer numbers. It's a global sport now and the Latin/Asian players have caught onto it. People who watch those guys know what's what and they aren't going to backslide now.

It comes down to talent in hand, needs identified, weaknesses exposed ... and knowing that if Suarez is traded, the team that gets him is instantly infused with whatever talent Suarez possesses, and the Reds would need to marginally improve on that or not need to make the trade.

We naturally take a number on this -- is 81 wins good enough, a disappointment or a pleasant surprise?

I think this is the year when the cocoon comes off and the butterfly is exposed. Votto and Bailey are in a position of having sold their souls, so to speak, to the process. It's not really on them to deliver, however. That's maybe the sad part of this.

A bit of incidental math: Look at the historically good Reds teams all the way back to the 1919 team. With the exception of the BRM years, Reds success normally comes in years ending in 9 or 0. There are rare anomalies, but not many.

 

[JohnU]

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The incidental math makes for good marketing I suppose. It'll be the 100 year anniversary of the 1919 tainted Championship next year, so for whatever it's worth Phil Castellini will be working that into his marketing scheme in a couple years. I assume he'll leave the tainted portion out.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I buy into some of what Chico is selling when it comes to contracts. I like the strategy of extending players when they hit their first year of arbitration. The one fault I see when the Reds extend young players is they almost never buy one or two free agent years with option years on the backend. Agents may not want the option years in lieu of guaranteed money, but signing young talent before they become millionaires makes it more enticing with exceptions. One exception is if you're a guy named Joey Votto and already have MVP elite player status. Votto's and his agent were never going to sell free agency years for options. They already knew they were worth the price of gold. Votto was unaffordable the moment his talent was realized.

The Homer Bailey signing was an example of bad timing. Waiting for a guy to get into his 3rd arbitration year before extending is silly. Now you're extending a player based on free agent comparison salary. Homer was trending toward improving at the time, but he still wasn't rotation ace caliber.

There were deals that worked out better for the Reds. Johnny Cueto is the best example. His extension included a club friendly $10M option on the backend. That was a bargain as it turned out and the club was still able to get value in trade.

Extending players can be a crap shoot. But if you're not a player in the free agent market you need a strategy that allows you to hang onto top talent a little longer.

 

[JohnU]

I tuned in on a couple of games last evening, and that annoying strike zone box proved how useless it really is.
Dunno, maybe it's the wave of the future and someday we will wonder why they took so long on it.

With contracts, I don't pay much attention to extensions other than the $x dollars for x years for x player. I do think a franchise is beholden to its stockholders to hang onto players who can make an impact, though I think winning on the slot machines at the casino is a better gamble. To that end, do the Reds take a chance and toss an offer at Nick Senzel?

The centennial of the 1919 W.S. could/should be one for the ages (I won't mention puns if you don't) and it's part of a whole litany of interesting events that occurred at that time in history. The W.S. is actually the climax of a brutal and inhumane era. It's only fitting that the one redeeming component of our social structure was tainted.

Truthfully, gambling on baseball was quite common in those days. My own personal opinion was that Landis was given Job 1 to wreck the White Sox and send the balance of baseball power eastward to New York. It worked.

A curious side note: Edd Roush went to his grave heartbroken that the Reds were not given credit for having WON the Series.

 

[chico ruiz]

i'm not really selling anything. i'm pointing out what has changed and how potentially successful teams will have to adapt to the changes. with the advent of huge salaries for all pitchers, and their usage, in the last 5-10 years it has become particularly challenging for smaller market teams. even price's decision to keep garrett in the bullpen, and start reed, signals albeit a small change, but nevertheless a change, in thinking and approach. as a baseball fan i find this subject fascinating because it's the most profound and lasting change we've seen in decades. the ped / home run surge was short by comparison. the silly rule changes have altered the game slightly, in terms of aggressive play, and are thinly veiled to protect large cash investment. but, the overall mlb pitching numbers / stats represent comprehensive organizational systemic change. i mention it on the 'spring training' thread. a few years back colorado was seriously considering 3 pitchers / 3 innings each approach. tampa bay is going with 4 starters and bullpen day on the fifth day this year. with 4 days off a month now (cba negotiated) some interesting possibilities and challenges are presenting themselves. but, that's what they are: possibilities. i offer nothing definitive, other than teams will have to adapt to this reality. the ones that have foresight and attempt alternative ways might be viewed later as pioneers, if one of their experiments works. but, the truth is they are being forced into it by the evolution or organic growth, and ultimate application, of pitching in mlb. what i know for sure is innings are being spread / distributed among more pitchers. starters are throwing a lot less since 1998. it will effect the entire make-up of teams. i've pointed out the obvious things that are vital in light of this sea change for smaller market teams. as far as trying to convince anybody of other organizational transactions; they are nothing more than existing ideas that have been used successfully ( and unsuccessfully) in the recent past. in other words, i have no idea.

 

[eburg5000]

I think starting the season this early so the players can have more days off during the season is going to be a waste. The weather is not going to allow it. I believe there will be a lot of canceled games coming up. It's possible the game today might get rained out.

I know MLB doesn't care much for doubleheaders, because they are losing money. But I think that would work better, Maybe a day, night twin bill.

 

[JohnU]

I think starting the season this early so the players can have more days off during the season is going to be a waste. The weather is not going to allow it. I believe there will be a lot of canceled games coming up. It's possible the game today might get rained out.

I know MLB doesn't care much for doubleheaders, because they are losing money. But I think that would work better, Maybe a day, night twin bill.

The ancient days of baseball where doubleheaders were the linchpin of a homestand ... those were quite interesting. All teams did it by necessity. Today, such a schedule would be brutal, since games now last an hour or more longer than they did 50 years ago. I have been to a couple of minor league DH over the years and with 7 innings scheduled, I am still weary after 3 hours of ball.

Day-nighters require pitching decisions that, as chico discusses above, are probably connected partly to the belief that the two-games-in-one-day approach might be farther up the discussion list than we imagine. Either way, the alternative is to cut the schedule or start the season in the south/domed stadiums and stay there for 2 weeks.

In any case with new ideas on pitching and usage, it will always come back to teams who have better talent in other positions on the field. If you are lucky to have Kershaw, you don't need Garrett-Finnegan. You can skip past that hump and sign a center fielder who makes Kershaw even better.

But I weary of the conversations about "back in the day, a guy pitched 350 innings with a sore arm and never complained." There are not as many of them as we remember and very few have more than 4 or 5 decent years to show for it. The rare Spahn, Robin Roberts, Feller, Ford ... Seavers are just that -- rare. It's why we remember them and are prodded to look up Ray Sadecki because he has no portfolio. There were a lot of Sadeckis.

I watched the Ariz-SD game last night and Knebel comes in, looks unhittable for a minute and ... blinko, it's extra innings. If you can only score 1 run, well ... whatever ....

All that's changed for me is conversations about what was, what is and what will be. I am gradually accepting the fact that pitchers are not going to throw 8 or 9 complete games, let alone get past the 5th. What I am also watching is whether the standby slogan of "don't waste money on middle relief" will hold up when it's middle relief that is the easiest to find, the hardest to use and quite unpredictable. Can you win without it? Dunno ... here's a team that had a rookie (Barnhart) being backed up by Ramon Cabrera, and we were blaming it on the pitching.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

A cool 47 degrees and overcast. Play Ball!!

 

[JohnU]

I recommend our hitters not strike out quite so much.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

i'm not really selling anything. i'm pointing out what has changed and how potentially successful teams wi

No offense intended Chico. I enjoy reading your post. You're a knowledgeable baseball fan.

I think small market teams have always needed to be innovative to compete with the big boys. The problem today is the big boys are being innovative as well.

Whether it was integration, the rule 4 draft, free agency, or the ever changing CBA rules the teams that don't adapt are left behind. Under Dick Williams the Reds have joined the party. But have they come to the party a day late for it to be a small market advantage?

DW has brought change. Young players are going to leadership camps. The organization has added coaches at all levels. They've expanded their scouting department and hired analysis personnel.

But for the most part the guys at the top have remained and or been promoted up the ranks. Chris Buckley, Terry Reynolds, etc. as examples. We're still in the early stages, so it'd be unfair to pass judgement. But time will tell as to whether most of what we're seeing is a change in philosophy or an expansion of business as usual when it comes to scouting and development.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I recommend our hitters not strike out quite so much

A lot of awkward looking swings yesterday, but Max Scherzer had a lot to do with that. The ball didn't carry very well, but that helped Homer more than Scherzer. Not very many hard hit balls by the Reds.

Scooter had a shoulder issue in ST, but hit well. He had 4 hits yesterday and looks healthy until you see him throw. He's either got the weakest throwing arm in baseball or is battling an injury. I watched him in warmups and he struggles to get the ball to 1st if he's 90+ feet away. It showed up in the 1st inning throw on the backend of the should have been DP. Harper came in hard to try and break it up and on the surface gets some credit, but Scooter had time and the throw looked the same as his warmups.

 

[JohnU]

I like to see things from a couple of angles, just in case I'm wrong.
Player development: Clearly, not every young man the Reds draft and sign will make it to the major leagues. Almost none of them will. The vast majority aren't being signed because they are overly gifted; they are signed because they play baseball well enough to get a spot on an established team, as in the University of Crawdad-Montreal campus. The rest are kids to hang out at baseball camps on Caribbean islands. If they don't have dope in their pocket or a knife in their fist, the scout might ask him, en Espanol, if he wants to play ball at Dayton.
Si, si, the kid says, punctuation missing because of tech troubles.

The above rant takes me to my point: I think the end result of any organizational strategy is to put 25 good ballplayers on a major league roster every year and, paying them commensurate with the market, endeavoring to succeed either on the field, at the gate, in the market, or all of the above.

To that end, what I see about the Reds developmental strategy is quite positive. The city and ballclub have done a very nice job turning downtown Cincy into an area that some other teams -- like the Braves -- might abandon because it's "a rough neighborhood."

As well, the ballpark continues to add yuppified options that let you eat almost anything in comfort, while your kids play on the Nuxhall field, you can intercourse with friends on the video screens, and ... hell, you can probably camp out for the night. The Reds H of F is a destination, not a sideline.

Bringing me to my other point:

Is Cincinnati a successful baseball franchise, or is it the 21st century version of the St. Louis Browns?

Maybe we ask for too much, maybe we can indeed have it all.

A better team on the field, we assume, comes from player development, scouting, coachingn and to some degree, a little luck. If you finish last, you get Senzel. If you don't, you might get somebody who is better. You just never know.

A farm system doesn't have to win shit. In fact, aside from the people who care about that, even the people who run the teams don't need to win shit. The manager plays to his only strengths, adapts, modifies and at the end, makes a phone call to Dick Williams ... we got one kid who ought be promoted.

Oh, what about the other 45 kids who played there? Whoever knows?

In a decade, you get 1 Votto, 1 Cueto, 1 Mesoraco (and cuss like hell because he got hurt) and maybe a couple of guys named Frazier or Barnhart. You can maybe trade to get a Suarez or a Schebler.

You land a Strailly, hope he's worth a Castillo and ... I guess, at the end, I am not quite sure what we expect should happen, what really is happening or why other teams are winning, if indeed they are. Atlanta had to build a new ballpark. Toronto wants to make changes at the dome, Tampa can't get anybody to give a shit and Oakland has finally conceded it will just ... um ...

And the Giants don't have anything at all. Milwaukee isn't building for long-term success. They want to hit it now, and reboot.

I love this narrative, so endure me, OK?

It is exceedingly difficult to win in MLB and our memories of the days when that was expected are driving our emotions a little. The Reds will win again -- something, someday. We will, at that moment, realize that the only way to keep winning is to do it over again with different people.

 

[eburg5000]

Hamilton and Peraza stroke out 6 of their 8 at bats. and both looked clueless at the plate. but it's just one game against one of the best pitchers in both leagues. I was pleased with Bailey's game. He showed a lot of guts.

I don't know what's going on in the outfield with Hamilton, but he sure has a lot of collisions with other outfielders.

 

[Redsfan1507]

A few notes from the opener:

The 1 day delay and cold and rainy weather did make this one different than
previous ones.

No Parade. Just Clydesdales. Instead of 100,000 people at the block party by noon, there were about 30,000. Paid attendance might have been a regular season record, but there were only about 35,000 actual butts in the seats. First time in 30 years I saw whole rows of half empty seats. Odd, 50/50 drawing said $75,000 and change ( about twice the normal figure )but they wouldnt issue a winning number until "after the game"...haven't checked to see if I'm a winner yet this morning, but it wasn't posted by midnight last night. Might have been a typo they had to take out a loan to pay off.

Reds pitching was abnormally efficient...Even though the pen continued their walk first worry later strategy. Scooter looked like a batting champ on O, but his poor throw on D once again exposed Joey Votto as a guy that doesn't pick the hop very well. That run turned out to be enough to beat the Reds. Another poor throw by Winker allowed the 2nd run. Scherzer wasn't challenged much. We'll see if Strasburg is today.

Homer did look very good. Is he healthy ? Can he be effective even if he is ? Let's hope so.

 

[JohnU]

Wow 3 comments while I was typing my rant.

 

[chico ruiz]

no offense remotely taken mr. h-n-r. the referenced post defines, by any standards professional baseball related, a huge change in the game. so, i thought i should clarify . what used to irritate me the most is how some teams reacted to it.

because it has been a evolution, or trend, for a couple decades it amuses me how a team / organization can react like it just happened last month. it wasn't too long ago that i viewed the reds as one of those teams / organizations. i saw the reds as falling behind in a way that could bury them for a decade. it was exhausting me for awhile, because -like a big kid- they were / are my 'favorite' team.

enough of that crap. this thread represents a new day. price's decision to move garrett to the bullpen was strong & decisive. he may have to make a similar decision about centerfield very soon.

 

[JohnU]

CF decision will be interesting because if we look at who is on the roster, it's either Schebler or Irvin, and neither represents a total upgrade over Hamiltion. The Reds released Ben Revere, who would cost more and probably not hit a whole lot better -- but would not be a liability in CF.
Having Hamilton hit in the 9 spot will be amusing. What goes around ...................