The Recency Effect of AFC Championship games

[Brees#1]

I already talked about how the NFC often has fresh teams. The AFC generally can be the opposite but it's loosened up.

2002:Titans(3 years), Raiders(2 years)
2003:Colts(fresh), Patriots(2 years)
2004: Patriots(repeat), Steelers(3 years)
2005: Steelers(repeat), Broncos(fresh, sort of)
2006: Patriots(2 years), Colts(3 years)
2007: Chargers(fresh), Patriots(repeat)
2008: Ravens(fresh), Steelers(3 years)
2009: Jets(fresh), Colts(3 years)
2010: Jets(repeat), Steelers(2 years)
Notice a 1 or 2 year absence with most teams. As for the repeats, those repeats had something behind them. Here was something different.
2011: Ravens(3 years), Patriots(4 years)
The Pats waited four years to get back to the AFCCG. I believe that had Peyton Manning not had surgery, the Colts keep the Pats out of rhythm. The Pats were starting to get phased out a lot here and this era was anti-Pats era with all the good guys winning. Gronk, Jim Harbaugh, and the LOB in Seattle changed that. NE would go on to represent the AFCCG every year until 2019.
2012: Ravens(repeat), Patriots(repeat)
2013: Patriots(repeat), Broncos(fresh, but Manning four years removed).
2014: Colts(fresh)
Not gonna mention the Pats through 2024.
2015: Broncos(2 years)
2016: Steelers(6 years)
The Steelers were starting a slow decline from super bowl contention. This year was a result of Peyton Manning's retirement leaving only one team as a perennial powerhouse.
2017: Jaguars(fresh)
2018: Chiefs(fresh)
2019: Chiefs(repeat), Titans(fresh)
Now the Chiefs will repeat through 2024, taking over for NE.
2020: Bills(fresh)
2021: Bengals(fresh)
2022: Bengals(repeat)
2023: Ravens(fresh)
2024: Bills(four years)
2025: Patriots(fresh), Broncos(fresh)

I expect KC to get back to the AFCCG. The thing is will there be another fresh team? The only teams that come to mind are the Texans and Steelers, neither of which I see. The Colts are the wild card. Otherwise, it's one of the other three. We know what three, and it doesn't include either of the 2025 participants. All three have a case. If KC doesn't get back, two of them are possible.

As for repeats up until NE and then KC's run, there had been an ongoing process where the number one seed from the previous year that didn't go went the next year, and ultimately the SB.

The Steelers(04), Colts(05), Patriots(10), Broncos(12) all faced this with three of them not making the AFCCG. In those three years, the Broncos, Jets, and Patriots had first round byes, and none would go to the SB the next year. This would not work with the 2019 and 2023 Ravens.

Additionally, there were the teams that lost to the AFC winners who were the favorite that didn't knock off a favorite. The Steelers(04), Patriots(06), Jets(09), Ravens(11), and Patriots(13) all were those teams during this long run that repeated. The only teams who didn't were the Titans, Colts(03), Ravens(08), and Jets(10) were those teams. Outside of the Colts, those teams were rarely the best in their division. The Chiefs were the only team afterward to repeat after losing but that was because KC was the new powerhouse. No team that lost to KC repeated.

And that's where we are now. There should be no repeats this time after a down AFC year so none of this repeat stuff matters.

 

[PDay8810]

 

[Xeliou66]

It’s remarkable that from 2011 until last year every AFC Title Game featured Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. That’s a ridiculous streak.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

It’s remarkable that from 2011 until last year every AFC Title Game featured Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. That’s a ridiculous streak.

Not a lot of real strong AFC teams for a while either which kinda made the journey easier …

 

[Xeliou66]

Not a lot of real strong AFC teams for a while either which kinda made the journey easier …

Yeah it’s intriguing how in recent history the AFC has been thinner and more top heavy than the NFC, but going into this season it looks the opposite - the AFC looks much deeper with contenders while the NFC looks more top heavy with only a few teams looking like they could make a deep playoff run.

 

[Clayton]

Not a lot of real strong AFC teams for a while either which kinda made the journey easier …

Ravens and Bills regular season record really would suggest they've been really strong teams.

Now you could argue they choked a couple of times.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

 

[Southieinnc]

I already talked about how the NFC often has fresh teams. The AFC generally can be the opposite but it's loosened up.

2002:Titans(3 years), Raiders(2 years)
2003:Colts(fresh), Patriots(2 years)
2004: Patriots(repeat), Steelers(3 years)
2005: Steelers(repeat), Broncos(fresh, sort of)
2006: Patriots(2 years), Colts(3 years)
2007: Chargers(fresh), Patriots(repeat)
2008: Ravens(fresh), Steelers(3 years)
2009: Jets(fresh), Colts(3 years)
2010: Jets(repeat), Steelers(2 years)
Notice a 1 or 2 year absence with most teams. As for the repeats, those repeats had something behind them. Here was something different.
2011: Ravens(3 years), Patriots(4 years)
The Pats waited four years to get back to the AFCCG. I believe that had Peyton Manning not had surgery, the Colts keep the Pats out of rhythm. The Pats were starting to get phased out a lot here and this era was anti-Pats era with all the good guys winning. Gronk, Jim Harbaugh, and the LOB in Seattle changed that. NE would go on to represent the AFCCG every year until 2019.
2012: Ravens(repeat), Patriots(repeat)
2013: Patriots(repeat), Broncos(fresh, but Manning four years removed).
2014: Colts(fresh)
Not gonna mention the Pats through 2024.
2015: Broncos(2 years)
2016: Steelers(6 years)
The Steelers were starting a slow decline from super bowl contention. This year was a result of Peyton Manning's retirement leaving only one team as a perennial powerhouse.
2017: Jaguars(fresh)
2018: Chiefs(fresh)
2019: Chiefs(repeat), Titans(fresh)
Now the Chiefs will repeat through 2024, taking over for NE.
2020: Bills(fresh)
2021: Bengals(fresh)
2022: Bengals(repeat)
2023: Ravens(fresh)
2024: Bills(four years)
2025: Patriots(fresh), Broncos(fresh)

I expect KC to get back to the AFCCG. The thing is will there be another fresh team? The only teams that come to mind are the Texans and Steelers, neither of which I see. The Colts are the wild card. Otherwise, it's one of the other three. We know what three, and it doesn't include either of the 2025 participants. All three have a case. If KC doesn't get back, two of them are possible.

As for repeats up until NE and then KC's run, there had been an ongoing process where the number one seed from the previous year that didn't go went the next year, and ultimately the SB.

The Steelers(04), Colts(05), Patriots(10), Broncos(12) all faced this with three of them not making the AFCCG. In those three years, the Broncos, Jets, and Patriots had first round byes, and none would go to the SB the next year. This would not work with the 2019 and 2023 Ravens.

Additionally, there were the teams that lost to the AFC winners who were the favorite that didn't knock off a favorite. The Steelers(04), Patriots(06), Jets(09), Ravens(11), and Patriots(13) all were those teams during this long run that repeated. The only teams who didn't were the Titans, Colts(03), Ravens(08), and Jets(10) were those teams. Outside of the Colts, those teams were rarely the best in their division. The Chiefs were the only team afterward to repeat after losing but that was because KC was the new powerhouse. No team that lost to KC repeated.

And that's where we are now. There should be no repeats this time after a down AFC year so none of this repeat stuff matters.

That's a lot to digest!

Have any Pepto Bismol?

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

That's a lot to digest!

Have any Pepto Bismol?

Buy in bulk. Gonna need a few weeks/months to figure this out.

 

[shopson67]

Ravens and Bills regular season record really would suggest they've been really strong teams.

Now you could argue they choked a couple of times.

...or as in this past season, the refs choked FOR the Bills