Series Thread: The Rangers Travel to Atlanta For Three Games July 17-19

[saddles]

From Scott Lucas:


This is wrong. Jordan Montgomery's sinker was 90.1 tonight and also averaged the same 90.1 in 3 prior AAA outings (I don't have data from 2 earlier AA outings, but no reason to think they're hotter.) @Evan_P_Grant wrote this, but it's not his fault. It's Statcast's fault.

My guess is Evan got "down 1.7" from the Statcast gamefeed. There it is, clearly stating a decline of 1.7 MPH from his previous average. But if you download the data, you'll find an average sinker of 90.1 (and a max of 91.9) prior to tonight. So where does 91.8 comes from?

91.8 is Montgomery's average sinker velocity in the Majors in 2024, the time he appeared there. Why does Statcast use two-year-old data and dub it "Yr-Avg" in a 2026 game? I guess because he has a lengthy MLB history, but it's highly deceptive. How could you possibly know?

The reasons *I* know are 1) looking at AAA data nearly every day because I have no life, and 2) Josh Sborz. A gamefeed from one of Sborz's outings shows a "Yr-Avg" fastball of 95.1. But we all know Sborz's velocity hasn't returned. Where does 95.1 come from?

Sure enough, 95.1 is Sborz's average fastball from 2024, the last time he pitched in the Majors. This comparison to the past is quite helpful, but the problem is Statcast doesn't ID it as an old MLB average. You have no reason to think it's anything but a 2026 AAA average.

Anyway, as far as the Rangers hoping to see "closer to 93," well, sure, yes, hope is great. Hope sustains us.

Apparently in AAA games, Statcast shows MLB velo/movement averages if a pitcher has thrown at that level at all; e.g., Winston Santos. He's thrown 3 sweepers & 6 sinkers across 2 AAA games, but his avg velo is N/A because he didn't throw either in his 1 MLB outing.

 

[saddles]

From Evan Grant:

The Rangers were extremely happy with Cody Bradford’s two innings of work for Double-A Frisco on Saturday. He allowed a hit and struck out four in a 37-pitch outing. Schumaker said the plan remains to build Bradford up as a starter. That would require getting to five innings or 90-ish pitches. It would not preclude the Rangers, however, from bringing him up earlier if the need arises for a multi-inning reliever.
— Jack Leiter threw a bullpen session on Sunday morning, his third since having a small bone removed from his right ankle a month ago. He remains ahead of schedule in his return, though there is no schedule yet for him to face hitters. He is currently throwing bullpens twice a week.
“My arm’s ready, my head’s ready, we’re just letting the ankle catch up,” Leiter said.

 

[saddles]

The plan might ought to be:

Bring Montgomery up to start in the middle of next week, about July 28.

Quantrill goes back to the pen when Montgomery comes up.

Bring Bradford up about 10 days after Montgomery, about August 7, and have him replace whoever is struggling the most in the rotation, Montgomery or Rocker.

Either send Montgomery to the pen or Rocker to the minors.

As long as there is no physical setback to Montgomery or Bradford, there should be no need to trade for a starting pitcher.

 

[saddles]

• Leo Morgenstern (MLB Trade Rumors) suggests “[t]he biggest splash [Chris] Young could make would be reuniting with Aroldis Chapman,” though he sees perhaps more likely fits with relievers Luke Weaver (Mets), Antonio Senzatela (Rockies), Brock Burke (Reds), or John Schreiber (Royals), and starters like Dustin May (Cardinals), Trevor Rogers (Orioles), or Brady Singer (Reds).

 

[fanman8825]

Too many long balls by Nate once again

 

[fanman8825]

• Leo Morgenstern (MLB Trade Rumors) suggests “[t]he biggest splash [Chris] Young could make would be reuniting with Aroldis Chapman,” though he sees perhaps more likely fits with relievers Luke Weaver (Mets), Antonio Senzatela (Rockies), Brock Burke (Reds), or John Schreiber (Royals), and starters like Dustin May (Cardinals), Trevor Rogers (Orioles), or Brady Singer (Reds).

I heard Trevor Rogers and Brady Singer as possible targets

 

[fanman8825]

Rangers fighting back again down 4-3.
Nate just didnt do his part

 

[saddles]

I hope Lopez is not starting to fade. He is 3 for his last 17(.176). I guess it is something to keep an eye on.

"No need to worry," says Nicky Knocks.

 

[DTLUNA]

"No need to worry," says Nicky Knocks.

Plz explain

 

[DTLUNA]

Not much action here today.

 

[fanman8825]

Not much action here today.

Tough loss. 5 runs should be enough when Nate is pitching. He set up this loss giving up 4 runs in 4 ip. He really needed to get the team thru 6.
Poor pitching over all lost this series.
We need to take 2 out of 3 from the Whitesox

 

[saddles]

Plz explain

Yesterday, I had wondered if he was in a slump, but he showed today that he wasn't by going 3 for 4.

 

[saddles]

I think we did good to tale one of these games. The Braves are a really good team this year.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

I think we did good to tale one of these games. The Braves are a really good team this year.

We had no answer for their offense in this series.

 

[saddles]

The Red Sox have now won 13 games in a row. The Twins, Orioles, and Tigers are also fairly hot.

It really seems like the winner of the AL West will have to be very thankful they are in the worst division this year. Whether it is us, the Mariners or the Astros, that team is likely out of the postseason very quickly.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Walcott with 2 hits including a HR tonight.

 

[fanman8825]

Walcott with 2 hits including a HR tonight.

We have a young star on our hands.
Cant wait to see him on the Rangers

 

[WastinSomeTime]

We have a young star on our hands.
Cant wait to see him on the Rangers

Right now he is DHing. He just needs to work on his defense. In 38 games at 3b he has 8 errors and 192 games at ss 59 errors. He's just 20 years old so it can get better.

 

[Kelleyman]

CY and Skip downfall is thinking JDG is an Ace difference maker come playoffs Same with Evo although proven clutch has let age catch up,with him
No playoff caliber#3 SP on roster minus maybe Jack

So remortgaging the farm for fools gold this season cripples our future
Yes we are in 1st but in the worst division ever. Sounds like a likely1 and done

Don’t mind if they stand pat and roll with what you got but no more Kellylike trades

 

[saddles]

Right now he is DHing. He just needs to work on his defense. In 38 games at 3b he has 8 errors and 192 games at ss 59 errors. He's just 20 years old so it can get better.

One thing that Scott Lucas mentions every spring in his minor league primer is that the fields in the minors can contribute to a few more errors than those same players might make on a big league field.