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iknowftbll
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It's still a long off season but now with schedules out and the draft complete, I am in the midst of "predictions" season. Usually I focus solely on the Broncos and the AFC West, with an extended focus on what the playoff seeds will be. This year I am trying to broaden the scope a little. I don't know why this year is different. Maybe because the Broncos are defending champs and despite wanting to see them repeat, I feel little pressure for the team this year. Sure they will play with a chip on their shoulder over the lack of respect they've been shown. But we all know repeating is nearly impossible these days. If it doesn't happen but the Broncos have put a good product out once again, I'll be satisfied.
With that said, as a part of my extended look at the entire league and expectations for 2016 I think it would be fun to discuss a few of the other AFC teams with high expectations. Here we'll take a look at the New England Patriots.
Since Elway assumed control of the Broncos in 2011, the Broncos have won the AFC West 5 consecutive years, posted a 58-22 record, reached the Divisional Round of the playoffs every year, reached the Super Bowl twice, and won it once. The only team in the league that rightly claim to be better during this span is the Patriots. They've won their division all five years, posted a 61-19 record, reached the AFCCG every year, the Super Bowl twice, and won it once. Qualitatively, one can argue the Broncos are equals given the AFC West has actually been solid in three of those 5 seasons (twice with an 11-5 second place team, twice with a 9-7 third place team) and a 2-0 record against the Patriots in the AFCCG while the AFC East has for years been the Patriots and their three whoopin' boys, but the Patriots can counter their success in consecutive division titles goes further back. Suffice to say, if any team has been the Broncos equal in recent years, it's the Patriots.
What really makes the Patriots an interesting team this year is the four game suspension of Tom Brady. Looking at their schedule, Brady is slated to miss:
@ Cardinals
Vs Dolphins
Vs Texans
Vs Bills
Even with Brady I'd likely have given the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt, but I'd have given the next three no chance at all. Without Brady, maybe the Bills have a fighting chance to go in and pull the upset, though it wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots still go 3-1 in a stretch of games I'd have predicted them to go 3-1 in anyway. They've had a pretty solid season in FA, though I've not taken a deep look at their draft.
Of course the chorus of Pats fans trotting out the "Brady will be pissed" narrative has already reached full pitch. And I'll be the first to admit: He will be highly motivated and since his first game back is against the Browns, Brady just may go into Cleveland and break the scoreboard. But the Patriots have a tough stretch after that, with the Bengals, Steelers and a roadie against the Bills. Just being "pissed off" isn't going to be enough to automatically carry a team through 3/4 of an NFL season.
Key games in the second half of the season:
Week 10: Vs Seahawks. The Patriots are coming out of a bye for this one, and on SNF they will be nearly impossible to beat, even for a good team like the Seahawks. But this one looks to be really good theater, at least from where we sit right now.
Week 15: @ Broncos. In the span of time I've identified above, the Broncos and Patriots have played in Denver 4 times and posted a 3-1 record. The one win was against the Tebow-led Broncos in 2011. It'll be interesting to see how well this new-look Broncos team fares against them. This has blossomed into a great rivalry in recent years but with Manning retiring a lot of people think it has lost its luster.
Week 17: @ Dolphins. The Patriots are hands down the better team, but the Dolphins are capable of pulling the upset here, especially if they have the incentive of spoiling playoff seeding for their rivals. This is what happened last year. Of course that doesn't mean it's going to happen again, but in the past couple seasons the Dolphins have given the Patriots issues down in Miami.
It is entirely possible (albeit unlikely) the Patriots stumble without Brady and then never fully recover once he returns. The Jets and Bills are both solid enough that if this were to happen we may see one of them upset the Patriots for the division title. I doubt that happens, though. Few teams enter a game week in and week out as well prepared as the Patriots. My early take is they finish the regular season 11-5 and winners of their division once again. I may adjust that prediction after a complete look at the entire league, but for now I think that's a safe pick.
Your thoughts?
With that said, as a part of my extended look at the entire league and expectations for 2016 I think it would be fun to discuss a few of the other AFC teams with high expectations. Here we'll take a look at the New England Patriots.
Since Elway assumed control of the Broncos in 2011, the Broncos have won the AFC West 5 consecutive years, posted a 58-22 record, reached the Divisional Round of the playoffs every year, reached the Super Bowl twice, and won it once. The only team in the league that rightly claim to be better during this span is the Patriots. They've won their division all five years, posted a 61-19 record, reached the AFCCG every year, the Super Bowl twice, and won it once. Qualitatively, one can argue the Broncos are equals given the AFC West has actually been solid in three of those 5 seasons (twice with an 11-5 second place team, twice with a 9-7 third place team) and a 2-0 record against the Patriots in the AFCCG while the AFC East has for years been the Patriots and their three whoopin' boys, but the Patriots can counter their success in consecutive division titles goes further back. Suffice to say, if any team has been the Broncos equal in recent years, it's the Patriots.
What really makes the Patriots an interesting team this year is the four game suspension of Tom Brady. Looking at their schedule, Brady is slated to miss:
@ Cardinals
Vs Dolphins
Vs Texans
Vs Bills
Even with Brady I'd likely have given the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt, but I'd have given the next three no chance at all. Without Brady, maybe the Bills have a fighting chance to go in and pull the upset, though it wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots still go 3-1 in a stretch of games I'd have predicted them to go 3-1 in anyway. They've had a pretty solid season in FA, though I've not taken a deep look at their draft.
Of course the chorus of Pats fans trotting out the "Brady will be pissed" narrative has already reached full pitch. And I'll be the first to admit: He will be highly motivated and since his first game back is against the Browns, Brady just may go into Cleveland and break the scoreboard. But the Patriots have a tough stretch after that, with the Bengals, Steelers and a roadie against the Bills. Just being "pissed off" isn't going to be enough to automatically carry a team through 3/4 of an NFL season.
Key games in the second half of the season:
Week 10: Vs Seahawks. The Patriots are coming out of a bye for this one, and on SNF they will be nearly impossible to beat, even for a good team like the Seahawks. But this one looks to be really good theater, at least from where we sit right now.
Week 15: @ Broncos. In the span of time I've identified above, the Broncos and Patriots have played in Denver 4 times and posted a 3-1 record. The one win was against the Tebow-led Broncos in 2011. It'll be interesting to see how well this new-look Broncos team fares against them. This has blossomed into a great rivalry in recent years but with Manning retiring a lot of people think it has lost its luster.
Week 17: @ Dolphins. The Patriots are hands down the better team, but the Dolphins are capable of pulling the upset here, especially if they have the incentive of spoiling playoff seeding for their rivals. This is what happened last year. Of course that doesn't mean it's going to happen again, but in the past couple seasons the Dolphins have given the Patriots issues down in Miami.
It is entirely possible (albeit unlikely) the Patriots stumble without Brady and then never fully recover once he returns. The Jets and Bills are both solid enough that if this were to happen we may see one of them upset the Patriots for the division title. I doubt that happens, though. Few teams enter a game week in and week out as well prepared as the Patriots. My early take is they finish the regular season 11-5 and winners of their division once again. I may adjust that prediction after a complete look at the entire league, but for now I think that's a safe pick.
Your thoughts?
