The Niners Ball Protection Since "We Want Carr"

[MHSL82]

Today's Article: Niner Insider Blog: SFGate.com » Before Harbaugh, Smith Introduced Careful QB Play to 49ers

Just over a month into the 2010 season, when the 49ers were 0-5 and had committed 15 turnovers, their error-prone quarterback, Alex Smith, made an executive decision.

Smith had an NFL-high 10 turnovers, including three in his career nadir, a 27-24 loss to the Eagles in which he was viciously booed by the home crowd. One of his issues: Smith said he was often told by the coaching staff to “Go make a play,” a nebulous command that went counter to his risk-averse nature.

As he reviewed that Eagles’ game, Smith decided to play his way. He finished the 2010 season with one interception in 152 pass attempts and his take-what-the-defense-gives-me approach was hailed by Jim Harbaugh when he arrived in 2011. In his first season with Harbaugh, Smith threw five interceptions in 445 attempts, the 49ers tied an NFL record with 10 turnovers and had their first winning season since 2002.

“I kind of put some decent football together at the end of that (2010) season and it led into (2011),” Smith said before the 2012 season. “I continued to play that way and it was reinforced. It was pushed. It was encouraged: ‘Play this way. If they’re giving you the check down on 3rd-and-10, take the check down.’”

Leading into the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in Seattle, Smith’s replacement, the more-dynamic Colin Kaepernick, has also expertly followed Harbaugh’s instructions. Among quarterback that threw more than 400 passes in 2013, Kaepernick’s eight interceptions were the second-fewest in the NFL (the leader, of course, was Kansas City’s Alex Smith with 7).

As mentioned in today’s newspaper story, the 49ers, since 2011, have posted these interceptions totals: 5, 8 and 8. Perspective: From 1946 to 2010, they never had fewer than nine interceptions in a season.

Since 2011, the 49ers have also had the fewest turnovers in the NFL (44) and produced three of the top five fewest-turnover seasons in franchise history.

The major blemish on their impressive resume is a five-turnover performance in a 29-3 loss at Seattle in Week 2. That was only game in the Harbaugh era in which they’ve committed more than four turnovers and it was their first five-turnover game since Smith’s turning point against the Eagles on Oct. 10, 2010.

Winning the turnover battle is a no-duh storyline in any game, but it will be a particularly intriguing one to follow Sunday. The Seahawks led the NFL in takeaways (39), while the 49ers are 31-5-1 since 2011 when they commit fewer than two turnovers.

Kaepernick will have to go make some plays, but he’ll have to do so judiciously against a defense that led the league in interceptions (28).

***************************************************************

A look at some of the 49ers’ turnover-related stats:

Fewest interceptions in a season in 49ers’ history:
1. 2011: 5
T2. 2013: 8
T2. 2012: 8
4. 1992: 9
T5. Four times: 10

Fewest turnovers in a season in 49ers’ history:
1. 2011: 10*
T2. 2012: 16
T2. 1960: 16
4. 2002: 17
5. 2013: 18
* Tied NFL record

Fewest turnovers in NFL since 2011:
1. 49ers, 44
2. Patriots, 53
3. Packers, 55
4. Seahawks, 60
5. Saints, 62
6. Panthers, 64
7. Rams, 66
8. Falcons, 67
9. Texans, 68
10. Ravens, 69
32. Jets, 100

Fewest interceptions thrown in NFL since 2011:
1. 49ers, 21
T2. Packers, 32
T2. Patriots, 32
4. Seahawks, 33
5. Broncos, 34
6. Rams, 35
T7. Colts, 42
T7. Panthers, 42
T9. Steelers, 43
T9. Cowboys, 43
32. Cardinals, 66

Original Article: Niner Insider Blog: SFGate.com » Alex Smith Q&A

 

[MHSL82]

I don't think enough people take note of Kaepernick's ball protection. If they do, they'll point out his number of attempts. But then when they point out the low TDs or yards, they never note the few attempts.

 

[whysies]

I don't think enough people take note of Kaepernick's ball protection. If they do, they'll point out his number of attempts. But then when they point out the low TDs or yards, they never note the few attempts.

To be fair, Kap has had a fair amount of "Should have been INTs" that defenders dropped or just didn't catch. It has been like the opposite of 2010 or whatever year that was where it seemed like Crabtree was deflecting the ball into the air for opponents to get easy INTs every other pass that was thrown his direction.

 

[FourBeeDen]

To be fair, Kap has had a fair amount of "Should have been INTs" that defenders dropped or just didn't catch. It has been like the opposite of 2010 or whatever year that was where it seemed like Crabtree was deflecting the ball into the air for opponents to get easy INTs every other pass that was thrown his direction.

Stat does not include playoff numbers either

 

[MHSL82]

To be fair, Kap has had a fair amount of "Should have been INTs" that defenders dropped or just didn't catch. It has been like the opposite of 2010 or whatever year that was where it seemed like Crabtree was deflecting the ball into the air for opponents to get easy INTs every other pass that was thrown his direction.

I've always looked to see if the lucky bounces even out. There was a huge drop by someone in the first Carolina game and at least one of Kaepernick's INTs at Seattle was tipped. But I do see the way these things have a huge impact - like the Green Bay INT drop dead horse Seattle fans keep beating. Look at the whole game, trolls, right?

But yeah, the start if 2010 was very aggravating to me, especially as a QB apologist. I hate tipped balls almost more than dumb decisions - kind of like I hate close losses more than blowout losses. I know all QBs get lucky and unlucky bounces, it just seems like it was going the wrong way for us every time. Regarding Kaepernick getting his fair share of lucky bounces, I'm sure all quarterbacks that. I really hope it doesn't even out on Sunday. I feel this year is make up for 2010.

 

[whysies]

I've always looked to see if the lucky bounces even out. There was a huge drop by someone in the first Carolina game and at least one of Kaepernick's INTs at Seattle was tipped. But I do see the way these things have a huge impact - like the Green Bay INT drop dead horse Seattle fans keep beating. Look at the whole game, trolls, right?

But yeah, the start if 2010 was very aggravating to me, especially as a QB apologist. I hate tipped balls almost more than dumb decisions - kind of like I hate close losses more than blowout losses. I know all QBs get lucky and unlucky bounces, it just seems like it was going the wrong way for us every time. Regarding Kaepernick getting his fair share of lucky bounces, I'm sure all quarterbacks that. I really hope it doesn't even out on Sunday. I feel this year is make up for 2010.

Yeah. I guess all I was saying is a true measure of a QBs ball protection skills is how often he throws it to the good guys vs how often he throws it to the bad guys. INTs don't matter as much. Alex was much better in 2010 than the stats indicate (it took me a long time to warm up to Lobsterbush, in no small part to how much he screwed his QB that year) and I think Kap has been worse this year than the stats indicate.

Lets hope the luck propels us through the Superbowl!

 

[sjballer03]

I like how this thread was basically an Alex thread from the start. And on top of that it got an extra dose (or two) of Alex.

 

[RoboticDreams]

I like how this thread was basically an Alex thread from the start. And on top of that it got an extra dose (or two) of Alex.

Alex!

 

[MHSL82]

I like how this thread was basically an Alex thread from the start. And on top of that it got an extra dose (or two) of Alex.

Me too!

For the record, I wouldn't have posted it if it wasn't about Kaepernick, too or if it were comparing them (I don't like those threads, we have our QB (I don't like overly critical) and conversely, I don't like rubbing it in.).

 

[tallglassofwater007]

To be fair, Kap has had a fair amount of "Should have been INTs" that defenders dropped or just didn't catch. It has been like the opposite of 2010 or whatever year that was where it seemed like Crabtree was deflecting the ball into the air for opponents to get easy INTs every other pass that was thrown his direction.

Should have been INT's aren't INT's.

 

[Rvnight18]

To be fair, Kap has had a fair amount of "Should have been INTs" that defenders dropped or just didn't catch. It has been like the opposite of 2010 or whatever year that was where it seemed like Crabtree was deflecting the ball into the air for opponents to get easy INTs every other pass that was thrown his direction.

Every QB has could have or should have been INTs. That's why DBs are not WRs. QBs also have passes dropped and TDs dropped.

 

[-AC-]

Every QB has could have or should have been INTs. That's why DBs are not WRs. QBs also have passes dropped and TDs dropped.

This...

 

[-AC-]

I'm not completely sold on these stats, I would rather see it broke down by pass attempt/interception ratio percent.. We have ran the ball an awful lot the last 3 or 4 seasons, so of course the numbers would reflect the way they do...

 

[MHSL82]

If talking about protective a QB is, depending on the coverage and who is at fault, tipped passes can skew the numbers a bit. Not talking about the game because these things happen. Just talking about ball security and turnover propensity.

Of course, it even out because all QBs are subject to bad WR tips and and luck out when INTs are dropped.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm not completely sold on these stats, I would rather see it broke down by pass attempt/interception ratio percent.. We have ran the ball an awful lot the last 3 or 4 seasons, so of course the numbers would reflect the way they do...

I agree, the article talks about percentages but the charts have none. We can guess by knowing the QBs system, but guesses and math can fog the comparisons. I know that Alex's 2011 and 2013 and Kaepernick's 2012 were the top three, if not top rates, for those throwing it 200 or more times (CK and Smith both threw 218 passes last year).