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tzill
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On a recent thread in Disneyland, I asserted that regular offense had very little impact on postseason winning, once a team actually makes the playoffs. I dug around for the study and said I'd post on it.
Turns out, I was recalling the Baseball Prospectus book "Baseball Between the Numbers" in the chapter, "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Sh*t Work in the Playoffs?"
Here's the meat of the study:
There is literally no relationship between regular-season offense and postseason success in our data set; the correlation is 0.0014 - in other words, it doesn't exist.
And these facts:
Since 1972, there have been 27 teams that made the postseason in spite of having below-average offenses. Of these, seven won the World Series. All of these seven had excellent pitching staffs. It's hard to make the playoffs with a below-average offense unless you have an excellent pitching staff.
Conversely, 20 teams have made the post-season with below-average run prevention. None of them won the World Series, and only two even played for the championship. 16 of 20 lost their first playoff series.
(hat tip to OGC for the reminder)
Bottom line: Sabean's model for building a perennial contender is fucking brilliant. Granted, it took him a while to figure it out -- and he was distracted by the presence of the GOAT -- but he did it. We CANNOT trade Zach Wheeler or Heath Hembree unless blown away with the return (which will not happen). With Timmah, Chez, Cain, and Bum (and Song this year, Wheeler in the future) we should make the playoffs most years and contend for the ring. ESPECIALLY with FYWW backing them up.
Turns out, I was recalling the Baseball Prospectus book "Baseball Between the Numbers" in the chapter, "Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Sh*t Work in the Playoffs?"
Here's the meat of the study:
There is literally no relationship between regular-season offense and postseason success in our data set; the correlation is 0.0014 - in other words, it doesn't exist.
And these facts:
Since 1972, there have been 27 teams that made the postseason in spite of having below-average offenses. Of these, seven won the World Series. All of these seven had excellent pitching staffs. It's hard to make the playoffs with a below-average offense unless you have an excellent pitching staff.
Conversely, 20 teams have made the post-season with below-average run prevention. None of them won the World Series, and only two even played for the championship. 16 of 20 lost their first playoff series.
(hat tip to OGC for the reminder)
Bottom line: Sabean's model for building a perennial contender is fucking brilliant. Granted, it took him a while to figure it out -- and he was distracted by the presence of the GOAT -- but he did it. We CANNOT trade Zach Wheeler or Heath Hembree unless blown away with the return (which will not happen). With Timmah, Chez, Cain, and Bum (and Song this year, Wheeler in the future) we should make the playoffs most years and contend for the ring. ESPECIALLY with FYWW backing them up.
