The 2025 Broncos: My W-L Predictions

[iknowftbll]

Usually I do this in May after I've had a chance to get a closer look at the schedule. Better late than never, I guess.

It's nice for Broncos football to be exciting again. The off season was a slog for so long with a hope for the best but not really expect it sort of mindset around here. Now there are expectations and a fearless young QB who talks about wanting to be the best QB (a refreshing departure from other players across the league whose goals were to be the highest paid at their position). We seem to have address the greatest areas of need on offense, an offense that even without much help from the TE and RB groups was the best unit we've seen in Denver in a long time, putting up 25 PPG, good enough to rank 10th in the league. I don't think the Broncos have ranked above 16th since Manning retired, and a lot of season they were in the 20s.

One the other side of the ball the Broncos are bringing back a nasty defense. This unit should have a lot of Broncos fans excited and a lot of other fans nervous. Now, just so we don't get ahead of ourselves, many have been critical of the Broncos defense tapering off at the end of the season. And while the Broncos addressed areas of weakness on the defense, the criticism has been they brought on players with question marks due to recent injuries. My response to that: every week of the season I am holding my breath and hoping nobody gets injured. Players who have never been injured get hurt and players who have had season ending injuries rehab and are good for the rest of their careers. And some simply don't make it back to the level they once played. There's no sure thing, especially when health and injuries are involved.

With all that said, I am feeling very optimistic this defense is going to rock it this year.

Some of the factors I expect will help a very good defense be the league's most elite defense this year don't even have to do with the defense itself. With the addition of a running game, the offense has a chance to stay on the field longer. The same can be said about a legitimate threat at TE: a clutch, possession guy who can convert on 3rd down. Not every drive is a scoring drive but if even when the offense isn't scoring they're eating clock and keeping the defense fresh it bodes well.

The other big factor is Jeremy Crawshaw. A punter is such an underrated asset. You get someone who can pin the enemy deep or even just completely flip the field after a disappointing 3 and out it can be a huge force multiplier to the defense. Imagine consistently making teams start inside their own 20 or even 10. Imagine having to travel that kind of distance against this defense. Imagine having to that in a "do or die" scenario because you're playing against a potent scoring offense you're trying to keep up with?

Yeah. This should be a good season for the Broncos. How good? I've consulted my crystal ball and while details are always a bit murky I'm thinking something like this:

Week 1, Vs Titans: Win, 28-7. The Broncos draw a rookie making his NFL debut here. I can't honestly say I know much about Cam Ward, though he seems promising enough. Not enough to get his first career win. This defense is just too much to let the Titans get anything going and the offense cruises. Broncos 1-0.

Week 2, @ Colts: Win, 26-16. Another big performance out of the defense with the offense keeping its end of the bargain. Broncos 2-0.

Week 3, @ Chargers: Loss, 21-31. A bit of a let down against a hated rival. The Broncos keep it close but the Chargers score a late one to pull away. Broncos 2-1.

Week 4, vs Bengals: Win, 31-24. The Broncos rebound on Monday Night and engage the Bengals in another high-flying showdown. This time the correct team wins. Broncos 3-1.

Week 5, @ Eagles: Loss, 21-27. So first of all, I do not consider this game a sure loss. But the Eagles are champs for a reason (Thank God) and further along in their development than the Broncos. In their house it makes it far more challenging. We keep it close, but fall short on this one. Broncos 3-2.

Week 6, @ Jets: Win, 37-13. Broncos stay on the East Coast and tee off against the Jets. Broncos 4-2.

Week 7, vs Giants: Win, 41-14. As if pummeling one New York team in New York (Jersey) isn't enough, the Broncos utterly dismantle the Giants in Denver a week later. To console themselves New Yorkers respond with quips about checking the MLB standings where the Colorado Rockies are looking so bad they should consider joining a AAA league. Broncos 5-2.

Week 8, vs Cowboys: Win, 27-24. I love playing the Cowboys. So hyped, so gassed up by the media, and always so disappointing to their fans. I don't love them for that reason, I just love playing legacy teams like this one. As for the game itself, I don't know if the Cowboys will be any good or not. But they won't be good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver. Broncos 6-2.

Week 9, @ Texans: Win, 31-17. Broncos take it on the road and control from start to finish against a quality team. People are starting to talk. (Well, maybe not yet.) Broncos 7-2.

Week 10, vs Raiders: Win, 49-21. I think the Raiders should be a better overall team, and they may have a solid offense. But I think our offense is going to mow through them like a hot knife through butter for a blowout win. Broncos 8-2.

Week 11, vs Chiefs: Win, 24-16. Even in their painful losing streak to the Chiefs the Broncos typically kept their offense under control. Coming off a bye the league made sure the Chiefs would be rested for this one. I'll give the Chiefs defense a little credit too for slowing down to some extent, what has been a high-flying offense for the Broncos. But it's not enough. Broncos 9-2.

Week 12, Bye. Great place for a bye week.

Week 13, @ Commanders: Win, 35-27. The Commanders will also be coming off a bye, which brings me to something that has always kind of irked me. The league can easily tweak their scheduling to account for bye weeks and syncing them with other opponents. Making the Broncos play two opponents in a row coming off a bye, even with their own bye in the middle, is ridiculous. In 2009 they played 4 straight opponents coming off a bye. This is something that needs to be fixed. As for this game itself, Broncos outlast in a shootout. Broncos 10-2.

Week 14, @ Raiders: Win, 31-10. The Broncos keep their win streak alive against their hated rivals. Broncos 11-2.

Week 15, vs Packers: Win, 34-13. This game will get hyped up because of Jordan Love and the Packers and the legacy they are. They walk into a buzz saw. Broncos 12-2.

Week 16, vs Jaguars: Win, 28-17. Not much to say here. I think the Jags are a decent team but decent won't be good enough to beat the Broncos in Denver. Broncos 13-2.

Week 17, @ Chiefs: Loss, 21-24. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt, I definitely don't think it's time to write off the Chiefs yet. Broncos 13-3.

Week 18, vs Chargers: Win, 31-17. Broncos are playing with the #1 seed at stake here, and they come through. Broncos 14-3.

Am I being optimistic? Of course I am. The Broncos return to the playoffs, additions on offense and defense, stability at the HC position, DC, and OC, not to mention the ownership group and how vital that is, has me believing this is a year the Broncos can be a true contender. Broncos go 9-0 at home and 5-3 on the road. Broncos score 516 and allow 318 for 30.4 PPG PF and 18.7 PPG PA, both of which I believe will be in the top 5.

At 14-3 I think the Broncos will have done their part to earn that #1 seed, though it's always hard to determine who will have what because that would take predicting basically the entire league's schedule.

What this prediction also says is I really expect the Broncos to take the next step. This is a team that was entirely written off by the everyone last year and even as they made the playoffs, the fact the Chiefs played a B-squad in week 18 (forget it took some very timely assistance from the Chiefs allies on the officiating crew and a freakishly lucky bounce for the Chiefs to hold on for a 1 point win in KC) combined with the Bills decisive win in the first round of the playoffs, I'm sure a lot of those writers who had written off the Broncos last year still believe they didn't belong in the playoffs.

Another critique for the 2024 squad is that they didn't beat any good teams. The thing is, a developing team often isn't going to. But nothing stays in one place for long in the NFL, and I between Nix's development, that of his WRs, and the additions to the TE and RB rooms, as well as some key additions on defense, if there is any team poised to make a jump forward this one is it.

So why not be confident in this team? I really think the Broncos take the jump and propel themselves into contender territory in 2025 with a 14-3 finish, and some serious damage in the post-season.

I welcome your thoughts!

 

[SpringStein]

I wish I had Mingo’s password so I could give multiple thumbs up!

POTM worthy. Thanks for taking the time for the thoughtful commentary.

 

[nflbronco]

Isn't the Jets game in London?

 

[iknowftbll]

Isn't the Jets game in London?

You're right, it is! I knew I was forgetting something about that game.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

14-3 seems overly optimistic. Plus, the margin of victory you have on average is other worldly. That would give you a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. You think squeezing through to the playoffs because a Chiefs team rolled over to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs warrant this kind of optimism? Then you get to the playoffs and immediately get spanked to death by the Bills.

Now, the Broncos are my second favorite team, and they were who I first followed back in the 80's with Elway leading the way. I am excited for them also, as I think they are an up and coming team, and I hope they can unseat the Chiefs at the top of that division. Even though you might have the easiest schedule in the league this year, at least on paper before the season starts, I can't see the Broncos winning more than 12 with a real possibility for 11 wins. Still playoff bound though.

 

[iknowftbll]

14-3 seems overly optimistic. Plus, the margin of victory you have on average is other worldly. That would give you a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense. You think squeezing through to the playoffs because a Chiefs team rolled over to keep the Bengals out of the playoffs warrant this kind of optimism? Then you get to the playoffs and immediately get spanked to death by the Bills.

Yes, 14-3 is is very optimistic, as I acknowledged in the post. How optimistic? So optimistic I am predicting a top 5 offense and defense, also acknowledged in the post. I also acknowledged many nay-sayers are going to cite that the Chiefs phoned in that final game and the Broncos didn't have a great showing against the Bills once they got into the playoffs. Not even a full day has gone by since I posted, and here you come echoing what I said!

So you are proving my point.

I realize Bengals fans may be a little salty about the way week 18 went, but the solution is simple. Win more games. The Broncos put themselves in a better position than the Bengals and as a result they were in the playoffs and the Bengals were not. Even if the Bengals were in the playoffs, there is zero evidence to suggest they would have fared any better than the Broncos. We can't prove what didn't happen, we can only speculate.

Lastly it's not just the 10-7 record and playoff berth that has me projecting a best-case scenario. It's the growth, leadership, and IQ of our QB. It's what he accomplished as a rookie without the help of a running game or legitimate threat at TE, not to mention a WR room that was Sutton and from there a bunch of "development" guys. Now those guys are farther along in the process, return to the same system, AND we have a legit TE and RB, so it's not insane to believe the offense can make a leap this year. It's also our coach, a proven winner who is providing stability where none had previously existed. The same can be said about our DC: stability where previously there was a revolving door. It's the additions we made to an already very good defense.

It's a lot of things.

14-3 is optimistic, best case scenario even. But there's a lot of reasons for believing it possible, and it goes way beyond the Broncos making the playoffs and the Bengals failing to do so.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Yes, 14-3 is is very optimistic, as I acknowledged in the post. How optimistic? So optimistic I am predicting a top 5 offense and defense, also acknowledged in the post. I also acknowledged many nay-sayers are going to cite that the Chiefs phoned in that final game and the Broncos didn't have a great showing against the Bills once they got into the playoffs. Not even a full day has gone by since I posted, and here you come echoing what I said!

So you are proving my point.

I realize Bengals fans may be a little salty about the way week 18 went, but the solution is simple. Win more games. The Broncos put themselves in a better position than the Bengals and as a result they were in the playoffs and the Bengals were not. Even if the Bengals were in the playoffs, there is zero evidence to suggest they would have fared any better than the Broncos. We can't prove what didn't happen, we can only speculate.

Lastly it's not just the 10-7 record and playoff berth that has me projecting a best-case scenario. It's the growth, leadership, and IQ of our QB. It's what he accomplished as a rookie without the help of a running game or legitimate threat at TE, not to mention a WR room that was Sutton and from there a bunch of "development" guys. Now those guys are farther along in the process, return to the same system, AND we have a legit TE and RB, so it's not insane to believe the offense can make a leap this year. It's also our coach, a proven winner who is providing stability where none had previously existed. The same can be said about our DC: stability where previously there was a revolving door. It's the additions we made to an already very good defense.

It's a lot of things.

14-3 is optimistic, best case scenario even. But there's a lot of reasons for believing it possible, and it goes way beyond the Broncos making the playoffs and the Bengals failing to do so.

Listen, I am not getting salty. You are 100% correct. You put yourselves in that situation, and we put ourselves in our situation. We lost it because of us, not because of the Chiefs. I am saying, the Chiefs phoned this one in, 1) because they earned the right to rest their starters for the playoffs. 2) They didn't want to see the Bengals in the playoffs, as they seem to have more trouble with Cincinnati lately than they do Denver. A familiar foe who you have dominated is a welcome sight in the playoffs.

Also, as you said, there is no doubt that the Bengals probably wouldn't have resulted in a different outcome, but what I can guarantee, they wouldn't have scored just 7 against the Bills. We didn't deserve that opportunity, so don't think for a minute I am salty because of it, or trying to lessen the Broncos. You are deflecting and there is no need to do so.

I like Bo Nix a lot. I was praying Denver wound up with him in the draft because I thought he might have been the biggest gem in the draft. I had no idea Jayden Daniels was Superman, but I felt Nix was a stud waiting to happen. I don't want you to think I am slamming your thoughts, or the Broncos. I love the fact they have turned the corner and trending up again. I grew up in Denver until I was 9, and most of my moms side of the family lives there and are big Broncos fans.

All I am saying is that I believe it is too unrealistic for an up and coming team, even with a light schedule to have that kind of dominance. I am going to go with 11-6, playoff birth, top 5 defense, top 12 offense.

 

[nflbronco]

You're right, it is! I knew I was forgetting something about that game.

Just being nitpicky lol. Still great breakdown nice work

 

[MileHigh64]

Great post @iknowftbll !

I think your predicted outcome is possible but not likely. I think the Broncos get to 11 or 12 wins tops but your perspective is much more fun to chew on!

 

[iknowftbll]

Great post @iknowftbll !

I think your predicted outcome is possible but not likely. I think the Broncos get to 11 or 12 wins tops but your perspective is much more fun to chew on!

I agree, but why not be optimistic. I see 16 winnable games on the schedule, and even the Eagles game I'm not convinced is an automatic loss. So think of it this way: my prediction is absolutely possible. It may not happen, but it definitely could.

 

[iknowftbll]

Listen, I am not getting salty. You are 100% correct. You put yourselves in that situation, and we put ourselves in our situation. We lost it because of us, not because of the Chiefs. I am saying, the Chiefs phoned this one in, 1) because they earned the right to rest their starters for the playoffs. 2) They didn't want to see the Bengals in the playoffs, as they seem to have more trouble with Cincinnati lately than they do Denver. A familiar foe who you have dominated is a welcome sight in the playoffs.

I am not so sure about this. First off, the idea that any team is deliberately trying to avoid another team in the playoffs is a little unrealistic. I'm not convinced the Chiefs were afraid to play the Bengals or the Broncos or anyone else in the playoffs. But consider this. In a year the Chiefs offense wasn't as potent they put up 26 on the Bengals. Meanwhile, in 2023 and 2024 their point totals against the Broncos: 19, 9, and 16. I'm not even going to count the last one because the Chiefs rested some starters. And while they may not have been trying to win that game, no team is ever trying to get humiliated 38-0.

But based on the way the Broncos have played the Chiefs since SP took over, one can make as intelligent a case the Chiefs would have rather faced the Bengals than the Broncos in the playoffs.

And I know you're not here trying to stir things up. Everyone is allowed to have an opinion here, and it's even better when fans can share a different point of view, banter a little, etc, all without it getting ugly.

 

[Mountain Bronco]

Scoring over 30 points per game and giving up under 19 would be one heck of an accomplishment although I find it highly unlikely, but I love the optimism.

 

[iknowftbll]

Scoring over 30 points per game and giving up under 19 would be one heck of an accomplishment although I find it highly unlikely, but I love the optimism.

It’s crazy optimistic. I think if one or the other, the defense is more likely. A jump of about 5 PPG for the offense would be huge.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I am not so sure about this. First off, the idea that any team is deliberately trying to avoid another team in the playoffs is a little unrealistic. I'm not convinced the Chiefs were afraid to play the Bengals or the Broncos or anyone else in the playoffs. But consider this. In a year the Chiefs offense wasn't as potent they put up 26 on the Bengals. Meanwhile, in 2023 and 2024 their point totals against the Broncos: 19, 9, and 16. I'm not even going to count the last one because the Chiefs rested some starters. And while they may not have been trying to win that game, no team is ever trying to get humiliated 38-0.

But based on the way the Broncos have played the Chiefs since SP took over, one can make as intelligent a case the Chiefs would have rather faced the Bengals than the Broncos in the playoffs.


And I know you're not here trying to stir things up. Everyone is allowed to have an opinion here, and it's even better when fans can share a different point of view, banter a little, etc, all without it getting ugly.

All very reasonable. *applauds*

 

[58crash]

@iknowftbll I do believe we win the west . But I think we have one more lose to the raiders hope I am wrong.

 

[iknowftbll]

@iknowftbll I do believe we win the west . But I think we have one more lose to the raiders hope I am wrong.

Ironically enough I think the Raiders will be halfway decent. It may not show considering I’ve picked blowout wins for both games.

 

[58crash]

add in there coach .... He will be hard to meet twice and not come away with a loss

 

[58crash]

Over all I like our odds of winning 13 games during the season . Yes 14 is doable .

 

[Orange Crush77]

I’m going 11-6

 

[cdumler7]

Ironically enough I think the Raiders will be halfway decent. It may not show considering I’ve picked blowout wins for both games.

They should be improved for sure. I still think that defense looks bottom half of the league. Maybe the coaching bumps them up a bit, but I think we should be able to run on them pretty well and I don't think they have the horses in the secondary to keep up with some of our weapons.

Throw in offensively if they start losing early in a game and have to rely on the pass I don't think they have the weapons to do much. Stop Bowers in the pass game and dare them to throw it to anyone else.