Team 1st Round Pick grades since 2009

[calsnowskier]

On the Giants board today, we were ragging on the Giants apparent bad drafting since their great run of picks in the mid-00s (Timmeh, Bum, Posey) and looked at all their 1st rounds since Posey (he was drafted in ‘08, so all 1st rounders since and including 2009). I then looked at some other teams as comparison. I thought bringing that portion of the discussion here would be beneficial since it takes approx 1 hour per team and if it isn’t “your” team, you don’t get any flavor to go along with the players history.

So far, I have done the Giants, dogs and Spanks. The Giants 2nd rounders was also done, but I won’t bring that here unless this discussion happens to pick up.

 

[calsnowskier]

Giants…

2009: Zach Wheeler (B) - he is a decent pitcher now, but it took him FOREVER to get here and he is still a constant injury concern. I have no prob with the trade, btw. Hind sight is not a fair barometer.

2010: Gary Brown (D-) - He got a cuppo with the Giants, and performed well in his brief stint, but he was apparently a head case and was out of baseball not long after.

2011: Joe Panik (B+) - VERY short career, but he was a prime contributor to the ‘14 championship. He earned a Gold Glove, but I think that was more of the stereotypical GG rather than a legit showing of his abilities. He is a coach in the Giants system now.

2011: Kyle Crick (C) - was starting to show some potential as a bully piece when he was shipped off as part of the McCutchen trade. He then quickly became a journeyman AAAA reliever.

2012: Chris Stratton (C-) - struggled to get a foothold with us for years before getting shown the door. Is currently a journeyman AAAA pitcher.

2013: Christian Arroyo (C+) - Part of the famed Matt Moore trade. Never established himself in TB, but after a short stop in Cleveland, he seems to have found a home in Boston as a key bench player. No one will ever mistake him for a good player, though.

2014: Tyler Beede (C-) - could never get his control issues settled with the Giants. Played a bit for the Bucs, but is currently out of MLB affiliated ball. I think (??) he is in Asia.

2015: Phil Bickford (B-) - He was packaged to Milwaukee for Will Smith. He got his cuppo with them, but has since become a mainstay at the end of the kennel. He isn’t very good, but he gets a lot of appearances with them.

2015: Chris Shaw (D) - got about a 75 AB look at the bigs with the Giants, but never looked good. Has bounced around the minors since. Is currently in the White Sox system.

2017: Heliot Ramos (inc) - He used to be a top prospect, but could never get his footing at the higher levels. He is currently holding down LF in SF, but that is really only because the SF OF has been decimated by injuries. He hasn’t done anything to show he belongs yet. He likely isn’t long for the org. If I had to grade him on what he has shown so far, I would have to go with a D+/C-.

2018: Joey Bart (Inc) - the org has not shown any faith in him, but that MAY be more about keeping the fire at his ass than actual lack of faith. He is no Buster Posey, but he seems OK at worst. Not what you hope for at #2 overall, but that was a weak class. At this point, I would have to give him a B-/C+.

2019: Hunter Bishop (F) - Has hardly gotten on the field at all since he was drafted due to injuries. He is already out for 2023. His time with the Giants is probably over.

2020: Patrick Bailey (inc) - He has gotten quite a bit of attention this year. He is expected to get his cuppo at some point this year. He is reportedly very advanced with his defense, but doesn’t even own a bat. It sounds like he will become a journeyman defense-first backup catcher.

2021: Will Bednar (inc) - The incredible disappearing draft pick. I am not sure I have heard his name since he was drafted. Not a good sign for a college senior who was reportedly drafted due to his proximity to the majors.

2022: Reggie Crawford (inc) - A two-way player. Who was basically ice-cold raw when drafted. I am not a believer in the concept of the two-way player to begin with, so I will likely always have a negative view on him, until he focuses on pitching or hitting. He has yet to pitch since he was drafted, and his bat was completely ineffective last year. He has not been seen yet this year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Dodgers…

2009: Aaron Miller (F) - Was out of baseball by ‘15. Never made it past AA.

2010: (Ed) Zach Lee (D-) - Got a quick cuppo with LA in ‘15 and another taste for the Rox in ‘17. Has only been seen on milk cartons since.

2011: Chris Reed (D-) - Got a cuppo with Miami in ‘15. Been hanging with Zach Lee since.

2012: Corey Seagar (A) - No need to expand. Home Run pick.

2012: Jesmuel Valentin (D) - got a decent look with Philly in ‘18. That’s it.

2013: Chris Anderson (F) - had a AAA cuppo in ’15, but never got to the show.

2014: Grant Holmes (inc, but F so far) - Essentially a minor league journeyman at this point. Doesn’t get enough AAA time to likely ever get a cuppo.

2015: Walker Buehler (A-) - All the potential in the world, but is a constant injury concern.

2015: Kyle Funkhouser (NA) - Did not sign. They got a comp pick in ‘16.

2016: Gavin Lux (B-) - Is the “current” starting SS for the dogs, but is out for ‘23. His grade should probably be “inc” at this point.

2016: Will Smith (A-) - Current starting catcher for the dogs. Not quite a star, but definitely an above average starting catcher.

2016: Jordan Sheffield (Inc) - This was the comp pick for Funkhouser. Taken by the Rox in the 2020 Rule V, and they kept him the whole year. He had a decent year in Colorado, but still spent all ‘21 in the minors and got a little play in ‘22.

2017: Jeren Kendal (Inc) - is 26 and has maxed at AA. And struggled there last year. Leaning towards a bust.

2018: JT Ginn (NA) - Did not sign. They got a comp pick in ‘19.

2019: Kody Hoese (Inc) - Currently in AA, but looks like he is closer to a bust than a hit.

2019: Michael Busch (Inc) - Currently in AAA and looks like he is probably ready to kick down the door.

2020: Bobby Miller (Inc) - is pretty much a consensus overall top 25 prospect. Mother fucker.

2021: Maddux Bruns (Inc) - HS pick. WAY too early.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yankees…

2009: Slade Heathcott (D-) - Got a cuppo in ‘15. Jumped around through ‘18.

2010: Vito Culver (F) - Still kicking around in independent ball.

2011: Dante Bichette (F) - Being a 2nd Gen player, he got a lot of attention when he was drafted, but never got past AA.

2012: Ty Hensley (F) - Last appeared in ‘20 in Indy ball, but never got past low A in affiliated ball.

2013: Eric Jagielo (F) - Got to AAA in ‘17, but played like shit.

2013: Arson Judge (A+) - Fucking turncoat. (Seriously, he is a grown fucking adult. He doesn’t need to work near mommy as a 30 year old. His career is in New York, good for him!)

2013: Ian Clarkin (F) - Got a AAA cuppo in ‘21, then called it quits.

2015: James Kaprielian (Inc) - Traded to the I’s in ‘17 in the Sony Gray deal. Has been a mainstay in their rotation since ‘21. Looks like a pretty solid pick at this point. A/B most likely.

2015: Kyle Holder (F) - Played in AAA in ‘22 for Colorado, but hasn’t appeared yet this year. Not sure if he is still playing or not.

2016: Blake Rutherford (Inc) - Traded to the White Sox in ‘17 (not sure who for). Has been in AAA the last couple years.

2017: Blake Schmidt (C+) - Already a AAAA contributor to the Spanks bully. No longer qualifies as a prospect. Could develop into more.

2018: Anthony Seigler (Inc) - Currently 24 yo in AA. Seems an age appropriate level.

2019: Anthony Volpe (A) - One of the top prospects in the game and is currently holding down SS for the Evil Empire.

2019: TJ Sikkema (Inc) - Traded to KC last year. Currently 24 yo in AA.

2020: Austin Wells (Inc) - 22 yo in AA last year and is pushing some top 100 lists.

2021: Trey Sweeney (Inc) - 23 yo in AA this year.

2022: Spencer Jones (Inc) - 22 yo in high A this year and on some top prospect lists (though I don’t really trust those when it comes to the Spanks).

 

[navamind]

2009: Rey Fuentes (F)
2010: Anthony Ranaudo (F)
2010: Bryce Brentz (F)
2010: Kolbrin Vitek (F)
2011: Jackie Bradley Jr. (B+) - A little disappointing as a hitter, but provided very good defense and did play a role in the 2018 WS title run.
2011: Henry Owens (F)
2011: Blake Swihart (D) - Sox fucked with his development messing around with him in the outfield... and he got hurt out there
2011: Matt Barnes (C) - Didn't pan out as a starter, turned into an OK reliever and got a nice extension... and fell apart.
2012: Pat Light (F)
2012: Brian Johnson (D) - Was a useful part in the 2018 pitching staff, otherwise I'd rank him an F
2012: Devin Marrero (F)
2013: Trey Ball (F) - LOL. Highest draft pick the Sox had since 1993 and he flopped, never making it past AA.
2014: Michael Kopech (C+ pick; F for Red Sox) - Key piece in the Sale trade. Has looked pretty good in 2021-22, but has had injury issues. I do worry about his strikeout rate dropping along with the high walk rate.
2014: Michael Chavis (D) - Showed promise in his rookie campaign, but contact issues have been too much.
2015: Andrew Benintendi (B+) - Useful everyday outfielder, showed signs of stardom in 2018 but failed to build upon that campaign before getting traded. Had his first ASG appearance last year.
2016: Jay Groome (F)
2017: Tanner Houck (C+) - Has shown promise as a starter, but remains to be seen if he has a viable third pitch. If he doesn't stick in the rotation, he's looked good in the bullpen. Seems to be here to stay regardless.
2018: Triston Casas (INC) - consensus top 40 prospect, has struggled so far in 2023.
2020: Nick Yorke (INC) - Got some top 50 love after a strong 2021, but had an injury riddled 2022 season. Looked much better in the AFL. Still have some hope for him.
2021: Marcelo Mayer (INC) - consensus top 15 prospect, hit .280/.399/.489 across Greenville and Salem.
2022: Mikey Romero (INC) - this is his first full year in the minors.

 

[nynasty]

Yankees…

2009: Slade Heathcott (D-) - Got a cuppo in ‘15. Jumped around through ‘18.

2010: Vito Culver (F) - Still kicking around in independent ball.

2011: Dante Bichette (F) - Being a 2nd Gen player, he got a lot of attention when he was drafted, but never got past AA.

2012: Ty Hensley (F) - Last appeared in ‘20 in Indy ball, but never got past low A in affiliated ball.

2013: Eric Jagielo (F) - Got to AAA in ‘17, but played like shit.

2013: Arson Judge (A+) - Fucking turncoat. (Seriously, he is a grown fucking adult. He doesn’t need to work near mommy as a 30 year old. His career is in New York, good for him!)

2013: Ian Clarkin (F) - Got a AAA cuppo in ‘21, then called it quits.

2015: James Kaprielian (Inc) - Traded to the I’s in ‘17 in the Sony Gray deal. Has been a mainstay in their rotation since ‘21. Looks like a pretty solid pick at this point. A/B most likely.

2015: Kyle Holder (F) - Played in AAA in ‘22 for Colorado, but hasn’t appeared yet this year. Not sure if he is still playing or not.

2016: Blake Rutherford (Inc) - Traded to the White Sox in ‘17 (not sure who for). Has been in AAA the last couple years.

2017: Blake Schmidt (C+) - Already a AAAA contributor to the Spanks bully. No longer qualifies as a prospect. Could develop into more.

2018: Anthony Seigler (Inc) - Currently 24 yo in AA. Seems an age appropriate level.

2019: Anthony Volpe (A) - One of the top prospects in the game and is currently holding down SS for the Evil Empire.

2019: TJ Sikkema (Inc) - Traded to KC last year. Currently 24 yo in AA.

2020: Austin Wells (Inc) - 22 yo in AA last year and is pushing some top 100 lists.

2021: Trey Sweeney (Inc) - 23 yo in AA this year.

2022: Spencer Jones (Inc) - 22 yo in high A this year and on some top prospect lists (though I don’t really trust those when it comes to the Spanks).

I'll sadly point out that the Yankees had to give a compensation pick to the Angels in 2009 for signing free agent Mark Teixeira.

The Angels used that pick for Mike Trout.

 

[YourFriendGannon]

Anyone know if any relievers have been picked in the first since the Mariners took Josh Fields 20th overall in 2008? (To be clear on definitions, from the time of the draft onward Fields could never be projected to be a big league starter.)

 

[calsnowskier]

Anyone know if any relievers have been picked in the first since the Mariners took Josh Fields 20th overall in 2008? (To be clear on definitions, from the time of the draft onward Fields never projected to be a big league starter.)

I know it is rare (in college, the best pitchers are typically made into starters) but I am pretty certain it has happened since. Kyle Crick was always viewed as a likely bully piece, but he was a starter for much of his minor league career anyway (more innings, regular work, etc).

 

[YourFriendGannon]

So far so good
2018 Logan Gilbert
2019 George Kirby

B+
2010 Taijuan Walker
2012 Mike Zunino

C+
2016 Kyle Lewis

C-
2009 Dustin Ackley
2009 Nick Franklin

D-
2017 Evan White

F
2009 Steven Baron
2011 Danny Hultzen
2013 D. J. Peterson
2014 Alex Jackson

The rest
2020 Emerson Hancock
2021 Harry Ford
2022 Cole Young

 

[Cedrique]

I'll look at the Phillies when I have time but I think you have to go farther back than 2009 to come up with any gems. Off the top of my head JP Crawford is the only everyday player. Mickey Moniak is a bust, there's another guy named Cornelius something, and I think the rest are pretty forgettable.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'll look at the Phillies when I have time but I think you have to go farther back than 2009 to come up with any gems. Off the top of my head JP Crawford is the only everyday player. Mickey Moniak is a bust, there's another guy named Cornelius something, and I think the rest are pretty forgettable.

The source of the discussion was based on the Giants picks since Posey (‘08). That’s why we were looking at 2009. Feel free to use a different date range.

 

[Cedrique]

The source of the discussion was based on the Giants picks since Posey (‘08). That’s why we were looking at 2009. Feel free to use a different date range.

That makes sense. But I think the overall point is probably that most people criticize their team for first rounders that don't pan out but the truth is most teams still have more misses than hits.

 

[calsnowskier]

That makes sense. But I think the overall point is probably that most people criticize their team for first rounders that don't pan out but the truth is most teams still have more misses than hits.

That’s what I have seen with the 2 other teams I looked at beyond the Giants. The dogs have done much better (3 clear hits with 2 hot prospects knocking on the door) while the Spanks have done worse (1 HR pick, 1 decent pick with 3 prospects in the pipes) compared to the Giants (2 ”good” players, and a bunch of middling “noise”)

 

[msgkings322]

It's obvious but still remarkable how little being picked in the first round correlates with success

 

[broncosmitty]

2022: Jace Jung - Inc. Appears to be a potential piece for the lineup. No idea if that will come with a position or as a DH.

2021: Jackson Jone. - hurt

2020: Spencer Torkelson - D- Was never going to play third. Is very small for first. And is not looking promising at the plate.

2019: Riley Green - B+. Looks like a player that can develop to all around well above average.

2018: Casey Mize. - hurt

2017: Alex Faedo - got hurt, hasn’t rebounded.

2016: Matt Manning - hurt

2015: Christin Stewart - D. Showed such promise. Then Covid season and it all went to shit.

2015: Beau Burrows - hurt

2014: Derek Hill - D. Fast as hell

2013: Corey Knebel - B. Came up in under a year. But was dealt within months. Made an immediate impact by doing so. Had some success.

2013: Jonathon Crawford - D. Was part of an awful trade along with Eugenio Suarez. Don’t know what happened to him with Cincinnati.

2010: Chance Ruffin - F. Reliever who never made an appearance.

2009: Nick Castellanos - B. One of the worst defensive players I’ve ever seen get more than utility time in the majors. Obviously a solid hitter. Major douche, but put in the time to become everything his body would physically allow. Prolly would’ve been great on roids. As a DH.

 

[broncosmitty]

Dodgers…

2009: Aaron Miller (F) - Was out of baseball by ‘15. Never made it past AA.

2010: (Ed) Zach Lee (D-) - Got a quick cuppo with LA in ‘15 and another taste for the Rox in ‘17. Has only been seen on milk cartons since.

2011: Chris Reed (D-) - Got a cuppo with Miami in ‘15. Been hanging with Zach Lee since.

2012: Corey Seagar (A) - No need to expand. Home Run pick.

2012: Jesmuel Valentin (D) - got a decent look with Philly in ‘18. That’s it.

2013: Chris Anderson (F) - had a AAA cuppo in ’15, but never got to the show.

2014: Grant Holmes (inc, but F so far) - Essentially a minor league journeyman at this point. Doesn’t get enough AAA time to likely ever get a cuppo.

2015: Walker Buehler (A-) - All the potential in the world, but is a constant injury concern.

2015: Kyle Funkhouser (NA) - Did not sign. They got a comp pick in ‘16.

2016: Gavin Lux (B-) - Is the “current” starting SS for the dogs, but is out for ‘23. His grade should probably be “inc” at this point.

2016: Will Smith (A-) - Current starting catcher for the dogs. Not quite a star, but definitely an above average starting catcher.

2016: Jordan Sheffield (Inc) - This was the comp pick for Funkhouser. Taken by the Rox in the 2020 Rule V, and they kept him the whole year. He had a decent year in Colorado, but still spent all ‘21 in the minors and got a little play in ‘22.

2017: Jeren Kendal (Inc) - is 26 and has maxed at AA. And struggled there last year. Leaning towards a bust.

2018: JT Ginn (NA) - Did not sign. They got a comp pick in ‘19.

2019: Kody Hoese (Inc) - Currently in AA, but looks like he is closer to a bust than a hit.

2019: Michael Busch (Inc) - Currently in AAA and looks like he is probably ready to kick down the door.

2020: Bobby Miller (Inc) - is pretty much a consensus overall top 25 prospect. Mother fucker.

2021: Maddux Bruns (Inc) - HS pick. WAY too early.

Had some decent hopes for Funkhowser after he was drafted again by Detroit. Really felt good about him after his time with West Michigan. Injuries got his arm too.

 

[calsnowskier]

Had some decent hopes for Funkhowser after he was drafted again by Detroit. Really felt good about him after his time with West Michigan. Injuries got his arm too.

He was a Bronco? I had no idea.

The Giants had a pitcher named Pat Misch a few years back. Ended up going to the Mutts for a few seasons after his time in SF.

 

[YourFriendGannon]

I know it is rare (in college, the best pitchers are typically made into starters) but I am pretty certain it has happened since. Kyle Crick was always viewed as a likely bully piece, but he was a starter for much of his minor league career anyway (more innings, regular work, etc).

I did some research and Drew Storen (10th overall in 2009) is the only pitching top 20 pick since Fields to not get stretched out AT ALL in the minors/int’l ball. Except for Garrett Crochet (11th overall in 2020), but he’s an unusual case who never pitched in the minors and got hurt before he could be stretched out.

 

[broncosmitty]

He was a Bronco? I had no idea.

The Giants had a pitcher named Pat Misch a few years back. Ended up going to the Mutts for a few seasons after his time in SF.

Nah, West Michigan Whitecaps. At the time Detroits low A team. High A now.

 

[calsnowskier]

Nah, West Michigan Whitecaps. At the time Detroits low A team. High A now.

Ah. Sounds vaguely familiar. Grand Rapids?