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Sutter from Pens to Caknuckleheads

davnlaguna

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PuckinUgly57

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Kings middle and middle on the chart.
All the talk of how great the Kings have been late in the draft but over the 12 years shown just average.
Of course there are lots of factors not counted here.

Yeah, most notably the Al Murray Factor.

I just did a quick scan on Hockey DB and from 2000-2006 (Murray's last draft), the Kings had 27 1st-3rd round picks (1st-11, 2nd-8, 3rd-8) and developed 11 NHLers (it's subjective but as a bare basic I picked at least 200 NHL games played), or 11/27 under Murray and a 40.7% chance of producing an NHL player.

Those 11 NHL players were Frolov, Lilja, Steckel, Cammalleri, Grebeshkov, Brown, Boyle, Tambellini, Kopitar, Quick and Lewis. Of these 11, 8 were 1st round picks.

Under Lombardi, I had to exclude 2011-2015 because those guys are still in development (although possibly 2 of 3 guys from 2011 and 2012 are going to be guaranteed NHLers in the fall but don't hit the 200 games mark yet - Shore, Andreoff and Pearson) so I can't count one way or another but from 2007 (Dumbo's first draft with his own staff) to 2010, the Kings had 16 1st-3rd round picks (1st-5, 2nd-5, 3rd-6) and developed 5 NHLers, or 5/16 under Dumbo and a 31.25% chance of producing an NHL player.

On the surface it looks ugly, but lots of factors as you stated. I'll give you the Cliff's Notes from what my data analyzed: if it wasn't a 1st round pick, slim chance Murray would produce something. His track record after the 1st is brutal, and to be honest it's tough to give him Lilja (or Visnovsky for that matter although a later round) because they were both Overaged Europeans when they were drafted so no real development was necessary - they were NHL ready with Visnovsky making the team that fall and Lilja in 2001. No real learning curve there for either guy.

Dumbo had 3 1st round guys turn out (Hickey, Doughty and Schenn) with Pearson soon to join that group, and Voynov and Toffoli soon to join the 2nd round pick group but can't yet because of the 200 NHL games mark I chose. Dumbo has uncovered some gems in 4th+ round like King, Martinez and Nolan. Keep in mind he moved picks too for holes that were needed.

Overall the Kings may seem middle of the pack in that chart, but that's because they couldn't produce anything under Al Murray and Dumbo had to carry to load.
 

Psych3man

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Nice work, Puck. Thank you for confirming my instinct that the chart is not really accurate for the Lombardi-era Kings, which has a much better record than the chart indicates--and will continue to improve as more of his draftees become NHLers. Hawks and Kings were built the same way, with deep talent youngsters augmented by excellent trades and signings, with the Kings getting up to speed a couple years behind the Hawks, with a one-year off-radar blip for the Kings last year. (3-15 in OT/shootouts?!?! It still hurts!!)
 

PuckinUgly57

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Al Murray hit his home run in my analysis above in 2003, with 3 of his 11 players coming out of that draft alone including Brown. However, Boyle was a late bloomer and I completely forgot about Tambellini, he bounced around and was actually out of the NHL the last 4 seasons in Europe and just signed with Tampa Bay in July on a 1 year/2 way contract.

The fact that both those guys have played over 200 games (Tambellini 242, Boyle 473. Coincidentally both guys played only 36 NHL games each for LA) is a miracle in itself, overall ROI for being 1st round picks is bad - I expected much more out of both these guys especially in a draft year as strong as 2003 was.

So yeah sure, Murray got two NHLers credit out of it, but with the guys he passed up to get these two schleps, he should be nut punched (Getzlaf was still available when Brown was picked). Not every year you get three 1st round picks and in fact it doesn't happen often - apart from the 2003 Kings draft, I remember Edmonton in 2007 and this season with Boston. Franchises should be set when you get a golden chance like that, lord knows you paid the price being a punching bag to earn it most likely (Kings' case, they owned the 13th overall and got the 26th and 27th picks from Detroit in the Schneider deal and Colorado from the Blake deal 2 year earlier).

Instead Boyle failed to pan out and was traded to the Rangers for a 3rd round pick 2010 which Dumbo used to pick Jordan Weal, who is small but supposedly is NHL ready (would be great to see him be the next Tyler Johnson or Johnny Gaudreau) and Tambellini was traded with Grebeshkov to the Islanders for Sopel and Parirsh one year later at the 2004 draft, where Big Al took "future stud power forward" Jens Karlsson in the 1st round (never played an NHL game).

If Weal pans out, Dumbo flipped a dud and potentially cleaned up Murray's mess. Sopel and Parrish....yikes, I don't even want to remember that, horrible times. I remember Sopel came over with a broken kneecap and couldn't play immediately either.

Bottom line: I wouldn't call 2003 successful for Murray even though 3 NHL guys came out of it. Corey Perry was taken immediately after Tambellini at 28th and is still successful today, as much as I hate the guy and think he is a dirtbag he would have been a productive player here like he is in Anaheim.

The old regime was an Old Boys Club and I'm glad Dumbo recognized it and kicked everyone out. He has slowly built his own Old Boys Club but at least these guys have hockey sense unlike the Murrays of the world who were here forever but provided no value.
 
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