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With the bulk of the FAs signed and now the draft in the books teams are really beginning to take shape. There will be some late additions, injuries through the off season programs (hoping for the best health for everyone) and of course, a few rounds of cuts before the season kicks off, but at this point we at least have a preview of how well teams addressed areas of weakness.
I don't get too detailed into the draft analysis because it's anyone's guess how any of these new players will fare in the league. But between draft picks and free agents signed one can get a feel for the overall strengths of the team. So here are some wave top assessments I came up with while looking at the AFC West teams while at work today. Consider this a primer for some predictions I'll be making later this week.
Denver Broncos:
I almost don't want to include them because we've said it all already. Still, in an effort to be inclusive of the whole division I'll summarize. The defense is going to rock it again. The losses have been stated and overstated. While Jackson and Trevathon were impact players, the team didn't even offer Trevathon a deal and Jackson, while a good player in his own right, benefitted greatly from the players around him, just as his replacement will. On offense, we can probably expect some growing pains again as the offense will fully transition to Kubiak's design this year. Some changes on the line may result in some setbacks but for the most part I expect the running game to be top-flight this year. I realize the next big narrative surrounding the Broncos will be the "QB controversy." I am going to assume for now Sanchez will win the starting job and do just fine for the Broncos. As CD and I discussed elsewhere, one of the single biggest improvements this unit can make this year is cutting down the turnovers. That alone would help the defense and can easily help power this team to another AFC West title.
Oakland Raiders:
This team has a young core that is really starting to come of age. A few FA signings and mark it: they will be a trendy pick to win the AFC West. Bringing in Sean Smith and drafting Karl Joseph should go a long way toward shoring up their secondary. Even a marginal improvement against the run could make them a top-10 unit in that regard. They'll also need to see some significant improvement in their opponents' scoring. With that said, I think they will be. I think they'll be a mid-tier defense across the board, trending toward the top half of the league. On offense, it's a matter of continuing the improvement curve. Carr to Cooper could be a great pairing. Their biggest issue on that side of the ball is likely the running game. Murray is a very capable back, but they lack legitimate depth there. Unless they plan on giving him 350 carries they may find their offense limited. While I view them as trending in the right direction this team is still a work in progress. That lack of a ground game is going to cost them when Carr has a bad game: their defense isn't good enough yet to survive multiple 3 and outs by the offense.
San Diego Chargers:
I honestly think this team is going to have an impact on the division this year. Despite an injury ravaged season, they were actually not an awful team in 2015 once you look a little deeper than the 4-12 season. They lost 8 games by 8 points or less. Arguably a better team would have found a way to win some of those close losses, but what that tells me is this was a 4-12 team that was close because they weren't getting railed week in and week out. Add in a few pretty solid free agents and what appears to be a pretty solid draft class and the Chargers may just be a solid unit this year. The noise of a move to Los Angeles won't be hanging over them this year, either. The team is all in on Rivers at QB, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. And that brings me to an interesting idea. Rivers is 34 years old, and this draft class for the Chargers looks stout. Rivers has 3-4 years left of playing at a high level, but it'll be 2-3 years before this class really comes into its own. That means the Chargers may have a solid season or two, and then essentially a 1-year window to really contend for a Super Bowl. With a lot of QBs in their mid-30s set to start leaving the game over the next 2-5 years, it'll be interesting to see how the Chargers transition from Rivers to whoever is next.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Even when you give them the benefit of the doubt through free agency and the draft, it's hard to definitively say this team got better so far. Jamaal Charles returning from injury is perhaps the greatest claim they can make regarding improving. Then again, they didn't really get it together until Charles went down so read into that what you will. They lost some central pieces on defense, and to expect some of these rookies they drafted to come in and produce at an elite level is hopeful at best. That isn't to say they had a bad draft; I don't think they did. But I don't think they drafted anyone who is going to make an immediate impact on either side of the ball. And they still lack a play maker WR opposite Maclin. They may have shored up the O-line and that should help, but the losses on defense offset that. In a year where the Raiders and Chargers appear to have gotten better the Chiefs don't appear to have made any obvious improvements. And they can't count on sweeping those teams this year.
Overall thoughts:
The Broncos are still a cut above the rest. From overall talent on the roster to coaching to front office acumen the Broncos are still the best in the west. I expect the Raiders to continue to improve, and may turn some heads this year. While the Chargers should rebound to some extent, I don't consider them a playoff contender. As for the Chiefs, I don't think they've made enough serious progress forward in a division with the defending champs and two up and comers.
Predicted Standings:
Broncos: 12-4
Raiders: 10-6 (WC)
Chiefs: 8-8
Chargers: 7-9
More to come. Until then, your thoughts?
I don't get too detailed into the draft analysis because it's anyone's guess how any of these new players will fare in the league. But between draft picks and free agents signed one can get a feel for the overall strengths of the team. So here are some wave top assessments I came up with while looking at the AFC West teams while at work today. Consider this a primer for some predictions I'll be making later this week.
Denver Broncos:
I almost don't want to include them because we've said it all already. Still, in an effort to be inclusive of the whole division I'll summarize. The defense is going to rock it again. The losses have been stated and overstated. While Jackson and Trevathon were impact players, the team didn't even offer Trevathon a deal and Jackson, while a good player in his own right, benefitted greatly from the players around him, just as his replacement will. On offense, we can probably expect some growing pains again as the offense will fully transition to Kubiak's design this year. Some changes on the line may result in some setbacks but for the most part I expect the running game to be top-flight this year. I realize the next big narrative surrounding the Broncos will be the "QB controversy." I am going to assume for now Sanchez will win the starting job and do just fine for the Broncos. As CD and I discussed elsewhere, one of the single biggest improvements this unit can make this year is cutting down the turnovers. That alone would help the defense and can easily help power this team to another AFC West title.
Oakland Raiders:
This team has a young core that is really starting to come of age. A few FA signings and mark it: they will be a trendy pick to win the AFC West. Bringing in Sean Smith and drafting Karl Joseph should go a long way toward shoring up their secondary. Even a marginal improvement against the run could make them a top-10 unit in that regard. They'll also need to see some significant improvement in their opponents' scoring. With that said, I think they will be. I think they'll be a mid-tier defense across the board, trending toward the top half of the league. On offense, it's a matter of continuing the improvement curve. Carr to Cooper could be a great pairing. Their biggest issue on that side of the ball is likely the running game. Murray is a very capable back, but they lack legitimate depth there. Unless they plan on giving him 350 carries they may find their offense limited. While I view them as trending in the right direction this team is still a work in progress. That lack of a ground game is going to cost them when Carr has a bad game: their defense isn't good enough yet to survive multiple 3 and outs by the offense.
San Diego Chargers:
I honestly think this team is going to have an impact on the division this year. Despite an injury ravaged season, they were actually not an awful team in 2015 once you look a little deeper than the 4-12 season. They lost 8 games by 8 points or less. Arguably a better team would have found a way to win some of those close losses, but what that tells me is this was a 4-12 team that was close because they weren't getting railed week in and week out. Add in a few pretty solid free agents and what appears to be a pretty solid draft class and the Chargers may just be a solid unit this year. The noise of a move to Los Angeles won't be hanging over them this year, either. The team is all in on Rivers at QB, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. And that brings me to an interesting idea. Rivers is 34 years old, and this draft class for the Chargers looks stout. Rivers has 3-4 years left of playing at a high level, but it'll be 2-3 years before this class really comes into its own. That means the Chargers may have a solid season or two, and then essentially a 1-year window to really contend for a Super Bowl. With a lot of QBs in their mid-30s set to start leaving the game over the next 2-5 years, it'll be interesting to see how the Chargers transition from Rivers to whoever is next.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Even when you give them the benefit of the doubt through free agency and the draft, it's hard to definitively say this team got better so far. Jamaal Charles returning from injury is perhaps the greatest claim they can make regarding improving. Then again, they didn't really get it together until Charles went down so read into that what you will. They lost some central pieces on defense, and to expect some of these rookies they drafted to come in and produce at an elite level is hopeful at best. That isn't to say they had a bad draft; I don't think they did. But I don't think they drafted anyone who is going to make an immediate impact on either side of the ball. And they still lack a play maker WR opposite Maclin. They may have shored up the O-line and that should help, but the losses on defense offset that. In a year where the Raiders and Chargers appear to have gotten better the Chiefs don't appear to have made any obvious improvements. And they can't count on sweeping those teams this year.
Overall thoughts:
The Broncos are still a cut above the rest. From overall talent on the roster to coaching to front office acumen the Broncos are still the best in the west. I expect the Raiders to continue to improve, and may turn some heads this year. While the Chargers should rebound to some extent, I don't consider them a playoff contender. As for the Chiefs, I don't think they've made enough serious progress forward in a division with the defending champs and two up and comers.
Predicted Standings:
Broncos: 12-4
Raiders: 10-6 (WC)
Chiefs: 8-8
Chargers: 7-9
More to come. Until then, your thoughts?
