Starting to overthink things

[Brees#1]

Personally I know one thing. I want an elite QB but with how I am overthinking and overanalyzing and not getting any stimulation I think I better just take VBPA to avoid screwing up. I'm not overlooking a WR with potential or TE for a RB in the third round.

 

[SteelersPride]

huh? ok

 

[TREFF]

Personally I know one thing. I want an elite QB but with how I am overthinking and overanalyzing and not getting any stimulation I think I better just take VBPA to avoid screwing up. I'm not overlooking a WR with potential or TE for a RB in the third round.

I think you'd best leave your stimulation at the door during the draft.

Also, your not getting an elite QB in the third, unless you play with a group of tools. Or unless you've mistakenly referred to anyone other than Manning, Rodgers and Brees as elite.

 

[Chef99]

I think you'd best leave your stimulation at the door during the draft.

Also, your not getting an elite QB in the third, unless you play with a group of tools. Or unless you've mistakenly referred to anyone other than Manning, Rodgers and Brees as elite.

Hey...what are you saying? I shouldn't take Matt Cassel in the first?

Hmm...perhaps I am overthinking this. :rollseyes:

 

[averagejoe]

Over-thinking things is what FF guys do.

My opinion is that most owners tend to undervalue the veterans, and overvalue the rookies/younger guys. Look at Foles and Romo. I think they're fairly equal. But you can't convince some fanasty owners of that simply because Foles is much younger (or because Romo is much older).

Maybe a RB is rumored to lose about 10-15 touches a game. His value plummets in many rankings. While an unproven RB is rumored to get about 10-15 touches a game, and his value skyrockets.

Another factor is getting burned. Maybe you drafted Trent Richardson last year. So now you want to avoid him like the plague. I had Gronk in one league. He was gonna play in week 3. Then maybe week 5. Week 7? He missed more than half the fantasy season. His former owners may hesitate drafting him again thinking that he isn't worth the headache and heartache.

There will be some "I told you so" players and some "I should've seen that coming" players. That's why we love FF. Or hate FF.

 

[TK21775]

Over-thinking things is what FF guys do.

My opinion is that most owners tend to undervalue the veterans, and overvalue the rookies/younger guys. Look at Foles and Romo. I think they're fairly equal. But you can't convince some fanasty owners of that simply because Foles is much younger (or because Romo is much older).

Maybe a RB is rumored to lose about 10-15 touches a game. His value plummets in many rankings. While an unproven RB is rumored to get about 10-15 touches a game, and his value skyrockets.

Another factor is getting burned. Maybe you drafted Trent Richardson last year. So now you want to avoid him like the plague. I had Gronk in one league. He was gonna play in week 3. Then maybe week 5. Week 7? He missed more than half the fantasy season. His former owners may hesitate drafting him again thinking that he isn't worth the headache and heartache.

There will be some "I told you so" players and some "I should've seen that coming" players. That's why we love FF. Or hate FF.

This sounds like how I feel about Chris Johnson the last 3 seasons

 

[averagejoe]

This sounds like how I feel about Chris Johnson the last 3 seasons

I hear ya. All CJ?K has done is run for at least 1000 yards in every one of his 7 seasons. But most want the "homerun" RB, and are willing to forfeit the consistent veteran.

 

[TK21775]

You think he gets to 1,000 yards this season with the Jets?

 

[averagejoe]

You think he gets to 1,000 yards this season with the Jets?

The Jets notoriously run the ball more than they throw. I don't see that changing. So, yes.

 

[TREFF]

You think he gets to 1,000 yards this season with the Jets?

1k.. is slightly over 60yds a game. Not exactly a big deal in fantasy terms. He'll be a nice middle of the road RB2 who has the ability to reach out and touch 20-25 points on rare occasion. Nothing more, probably nothing less.

 

[TK21775]

1k.. is slightly over 60yds a game. Not exactly a big deal in fantasy terms. He'll be a nice middle of the road RB2 who has the ability to reach out and touch 20-25 points on rare occasion. Nothing more, probably nothing less.

After having him on my roster for the last 3 seasons I don't even want him for a RB2, however in the mocks you can grab him later to add some depth which I wouldn't mind. If I get stuck with him as my RB2 again I hope I'm in a padded room as my laptop will be thrown

 

[TK21775]

Who would the better backup be: Chris Johnson or Trent Richardson? They're both projected close to each other ADP

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I think I'd roll the dice on a bounce back from TRich. But I also wouldn't want either as my RB2. I'm talking strictly RB3/4 here.

Ballard and Bradshaw are both coming off injuries and Brown is in SD.

 

[TREFF]

I'd rather have Johnson.. As a RB3.. hell I'd be ok with him being my #2.. wouldn't be what is hope for. . But ok with it

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I think I'd roll the dice on a bounce back from TRich. But I also wouldn't want either as my RB2. I'm talking strictly RB3/4 here.

Ballard and Bradshaw are both coming off injuries and Brown is in SD.

Agreed. I will want a much better rb than Cj as my rb 2. Trent Richardson has an excuse for sucking last year. He could easily rebound. CJ does not have an excuse that will change going from the titans do the jets and has lost a step over the years. I don't see an uptick in numbers for Cj. And getting 1000 yards isn't much of an accomplishment for a starting back anymore in the NFL.

 

[Bandit]

Who would the better backup be: Chris Johnson or Trent Richardson? They're both projected close to each other ADP

So you want to know which pile of shit smells better? I'd go with the steaming pile of Chris Johnson only because he's on a run first team.

 

[TK21775]

So you want to know which pile of shit smells better? I'd go with the steaming pile of Chris Johnson only because he's on a run first team.

Pretty much, where I'm drafting by the time I grab my 2 starting RBs and 2WRS, I can get one of these guys as a backup unless you feel like there's a worthier RB to add depth at this position in a 14 team draft?

 

[TKOSpikes]

My opinion is that most owners tend to undervalue the veterans, and overvalue the rookies/younger guys.

So true! I picked Justin Hunter last year instead of Nate Washington in our Coma, knowing it was stupid. I've also heard some crazies have Montee Ball rated 2nd! Didn't he/they learn their lesson with Doug Martin last year?

Another factor is getting burned. Maybe you drafted Trent Richardson last year. So now you want to avoid him like the plague.

Also very true! Who's taking Dougie this year? Spiller?


...but let's not forget another thing... chasing points. The over thinker sometimes only looks to last year as a floor to a breakout, instead of possible career years and/or regime changes.

 

[wilwhite]

So you want to know which pile of shit smells better? I'd go with the steaming pile of Chris Johnson only because he's on a run first team.

The only reason they're even close is that CJ1K is on the Jets. He's the only current RB with 3+ years in the league who's finished in the top 15 fantasy RBs every year he's played - and he's never missed a game.

TRich will probably never see 300 touches again, and without them he's fantasy anathema.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

So true! I picked Justin Hunter last year instead of Nate Washington in our Coma, knowing it was stupid. I've also heard some crazies have Montee Ball rated 2nd! Didn't he/they learn their lesson with Doug Martin last year?




Also very true! Who's taking Dougie this year? Spiller?


...but let's not forget another thing... chasing points. The over thinker sometimes only looks to last year as a floor to a breakout, instead of possible career years and/or regime changes.

I don't think that ball is a second rounder, but you can't really compare ball to Martin. The bucs were never a good offense. The broncos have the best offense in the nfl. The broncos don't really need a great back to run on teams. The bucs are a much different story.