Starting Rotation - A Concern

[magnumo]

This early in the Pirates' season, the offense has been awful, but the rotation and the bullpen have pitched pretty well for the most part (certainly above average as compared to the rest of MLB). I doubt that anyone would dispute that.

However, as good as Pirate pitching has been (5th in ERA out of 30 major league teams), I had a nagging suspicion that the rotation was being "underworked." So..... I checked out average pitches per start for all major league teams, and was NOT surprised to find the Pirates not only well below average, but dead last..... and by a significant margin. Here are the average pitches per start for all major league teams:

104.4 Texas
103.7 Tampa Bay
99.9 San Fran
99.4 NY Yankees
99.2 Toronto
98.9 NY Mets
98.3 Baltimore
97.5 Chi. Cubs
97.2 Boston
96.7 Seattle
96.5 Miami
95.6 Atlanta
94.8 Chi. Sox
94.0 LA Angels
93.9 Arizona
93.7 Cincinnati
93.7 Philadelphia
93.3 San Diego
93.0 Houston
92.9 Milwaukee
90.9 Oakland
89.4 Kansas City
88.9 Minnesota
87.9 Colorado
87.8 Cleveland
87.0 Detroit
86.6 St. Louis
86.3 Washington
85.0 LA Dodgers
81.4 Pittsburgh

It's still a small sample..... but I see these numbers as a looming problem. I believe Pirate starters should be pitching deeper into games. Hey, I know there are "reasons" for their low numbers, e.g.:

- AL teams need not pinch hit for their pitchers; hence pitches per start in the AL should be higher than for NL teams. (That higher bias for AL teams is obvious from the numbers above..... but the overlap between leagues is just as obvious.)

- The Pirate offense has been so putrid that Hurdle has needed to pinch hit "early." (There's something to that for sure, but how much difference should it make?)

- The Pirates have starters coming off injuries, and those pitchers need to be protected. (Yes, but probably no different from many other teams)

- Are there other reasons?

At any rate, despite those reasons, it seems inappropriate to me for the Pirates to be dragging so far behind the rest of baseball, especially in view of the starters' performance to date. I submit that excessive "babying" is just as bad as overworking starters..... and the pattern of "early" hooks results in lack of stamina for our starters and overwork for our bullpen..... AND the kind of collapse which the Pirate pitching staff exhibited in 2011.

Since I'm still hoping for the offense to find itself, I would hate to see a repeat of that pitching collapse in 2012.

 

[element1286]

This early in the Pirates' season, the offense has been awful, but the rotation and the bullpen have pitched pretty well for the most part (certainly above average as compared to the rest of MLB). I doubt that anyone would dispute that.

However, as good as Pirate pitching has been (5th in ERA out of 30 major league teams), I had a nagging suspicion that the rotation was being "underworked." So..... I checked out average pitches per start for all major league teams, and was NOT surprised to find the Pirates not only well below average, but dead last..... and by a significant margin. Here are the average pitches per start for all major league teams:

104.4 Texas
103.7 Tampa Bay
99.9 San Fran
99.4 NY Yankees
99.2 Toronto
98.9 NY Mets
98.3 Baltimore
97.5 Chi. Cubs
97.2 Boston
96.7 Seattle
96.5 Miami
95.6 Atlanta
94.8 Chi. Sox
94.0 LA Angels
93.9 Arizona
93.7 Cincinnati
93.7 Philadelphia
93.3 San Diego
93.0 Houston
92.9 Milwaukee
90.9 Oakland
89.4 Kansas City
88.9 Minnesota
87.9 Colorado
87.8 Cleveland
87.0 Detroit
86.6 St. Louis
86.3 Washington
85.0 LA Dodgers
81.4 Pittsburgh

It's still a small sample..... but I see these numbers as a looming problem. I believe Pirate starters should be pitching deeper into games. Hey, I know there are "reasons" for their low numbers, e.g.:

- AL teams need not pinch hit for their pitchers; hence pitches per start in the AL should be higher than for NL teams. (That higher bias for AL teams is obvious from the numbers above..... but the overlap between leagues is just as obvious.)

- The Pirate offense has been so putrid that Hurdle has needed to pinch hit "early." (There's something to that for sure, but how much difference should it make?)

- The Pirates have starters coming off injuries, and those pitchers need to be protected. (Yes, but probably no different from many other teams)

- Are there other reasons?

At any rate, despite those reasons, it seems inappropriate to me for the Pirates to be dragging so far behind the rest of baseball, especially in view of the starters' performance to date. I submit that excessive "babying" is just as bad as overworking starters..... and the pattern of "early" hooks results in lack of stamina for our starters and overwork for our bullpen..... AND the kind of collapse which the Pirate pitching staff exhibited in 2011.

Since I'm still hoping for the offense to find itself, I would hate to see a repeat of that pitching collapse in 2012.

Have all these teams played the same amount of games? That's seems like it would skew the numbers. Are they also leading the league in IP by relievers?

 

[thecrow124]

IMO number of pitches isn't as important in this instance as innings pitched. If we are getting starters through 6 innings on 81 pitches then that is good if other teams are getting starters through 6 or 7 innings on 95-100 pitches. However, if other teams are getting starters through 8 innings on 95-100 pitches, then we have a problem, because I don't think any of our pitchers can be counted on to go 8 innings on a regular basis.

 

[Illinest]

I dont think that this is such a big deal as long as the bullpen can handle the work. Im more concerned with overwork and its hard to point at any pitcher and say hes being overworked.

 

[Darkstone42]

I actually see that as a good thing, since Morton notwithstanding, our starters have been consistently giving us six or seven innings.

And I have noticed guys getting pulled earlier than the need to because of the pinch hitting thing fairly often so far. Mostly after the sixth. Given our offense's anemia, any time the pitcher comes up late with anyone on base, it's almost necessary to pinch hit.

If the offense picks up, I predict our starters will pitch more innings, and therefore throw more pitches.

 

[Darkstone42]

Bedard did not pitch efficiently today. Lots of pitches, not a lot of innings. At least he gave us a chance to win.

 

[Darkstone42]

Evan Meek.

 

[thedddd]

Pitch count max so far
Bedard - 97
Correia - 91
McDonald - 88
Karstens - 85
Morton - 71

If I haven't watched any games I would take this two ways:

1. Their offense is that bad and the need to pinch hit early
2. Protecting the pitchers earlier in the year with the hope they go deeper into games later in the season so there isn't the drop off like last year.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pitch count max so far
Bedard - 97
Correia - 91
McDonald - 88
Karstens - 85
Morton - 71

If I haven't watched any games I would take this two ways:

1. Their offense is that bad and the need to pinch hit early
2. Protecting the pitchers earlier in the year with the hope they go deeper into games later in the season so there isn't the drop off like last year.

Morton's 71 is almost entirely a product of it being his first start back I imagine. His first five or so will likely be short outings until he's stretched back out.

 

[thedddd]

Morton's 71 is almost entirely a product of it being his first start back I imagine. His first five or so will likely be short outings until he's stretched back out.

Very true with Morton but not the others. They need a starter who can average the 100+ pitches in a good way.

So I am not watching the game did Karstens just get pulled for the bad outing or was it health?

 

[element1286]

It was a strange situation, but it seems health related.

Correia, might have been saved.

 

[Illinest]

shoulder inflammation.
That's a slap in the dick.

 

[Etrius24]

Well McDonald is turning into an ace that can go 8 or 9 innings to get the job done... He is striking out batters... he is stingy with walks and his ERA is now at 2.20!!!

Go back and look at each of his starts... he should have the win in all but one of them... He has been incredible...

Bedard is pitching well... But Mcdonald is looking more and more like an ace...\

He is keeping his pitch counts down so he can pitch deeper into games... He has great stuff... His touch has been spot on...

I get worried that Hanny and Cruz will get overworked... But McDonald might be a bullpen saviour

 

[Etrius24]

Slaton got called up... He has 8 saves in the minors and a era of 0.36 in 20 games..So hopefully he can help the bullpen also while Cruz is on leave.

 

[thecrow124]

I tried to look up the numbers, but can anyone find the updatex list now that we are further than 2a weeks into the season.

 

[magnumo]

Here are the numbers after the Memorial Day games. Numbers are average number of pitches per start by team:

103.8 Tampa Bay
102.6 San Francisco
102.5 Texas
100.0 Chi.Sox
98.6 Houston
98.6 LA Angels
98.5 Miami
98.2 Boston
98.2 Toronto
98.1 Baltimore
98.1 Cleveland
98.0 NY Yankees
97.9 Philadelphia
97.6 Atlanta
97.3 Cincinnati
96.5 Detroit
96.5 Seattle
96.2 Milwaukee
95.3 St. Louis
95.2 Arizona
94.9 San Diego
94.6 Chi.Cubs
94.5 LA Dodgers
94.5 NY Mets
93.4 Colorado
92.3 Washington
92.2 Oakland
88.6 Kansas City
88.1 Pittsburgh
85.7 Minnesota

The good news is that the Pirates are now 29th out of 30 teams. Other observations:

- The number of teams over 100 has increased from 2 to 4.

- The number of teams over 90 has increased from 21 to 27.

- The average across MLB has increased from 93.6 to 96.2.

- For the three teams averaging below 90: KC has had 10 different starters in 2012, Minnesota has had 9, while the Pirates have had 7.

- The Pirates are gaining. We were 12.2 below average in my first report. Now, we are only 8.1 below average.

Note to thecrow124: I got the numbers from the pitching stat pages for each team at ESPN. These pages show the pitches per start for every pitcher who has started a game, plus the team average for each team. I've listed the link to the Pirates' page below. To look at any other team, just select that team from the "More MLB Teams" drop-down menu at the upper right.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2012 Pitching Statistics - ESPN