Stanford's Season Is Over

[Burgh Sports Rule]

With the loss tonight to Florida St. Stanford's & Mark Appel's season is now over.

Probably does not mean much though, because, even though Appel was our pk at 8 & he is slotted to make a certain sum of money, Boras will not have him sign until the very last minute on July 13th.

Hope I'm wrong about that & we can get Appel in to the system sooner.

In other news: With the Reds loss tonight, The Pirates are tied for 1st place in the NL Central Division!

Burgh

 

[Illinest]

@MAppel26: It's been a great year with 34 best friends. Wish it didn't have to end. One more final, then a decision to be made. Love my team #brothers

From his twitter. I tried to read more but he kept praising the lord and I thought my eyes were going to roll out of my head.

 

[sychmd]

why would that make your eyes roll out of your head?

 

[thecrow124]

Wyatt Mathisen signed for slot, so no money saved from our second round pick. If our comp pick signs for slot, or doesn't sign at all(highly unlikely), then we don't save money there either. Appel may just be in line to receive slot and nothing more.

However, thank goodness his season is over, no more 150 pitch games for him this year.

 

[pixburgher66]

I really think the Pirates have the leverage right now...

 

[evolver115]

Wyatt Mathisen signed for slot, so no money saved from our second round pick. If our comp pick signs for slot, or doesn't sign at all(highly unlikely), then we don't save money there either. Appel may just be in line to receive slot and nothing more.

However, thank goodness his season is over, no more 150 pitch games for him this year.

I read today that Neal and Co. would be willing to discuss over slot $$$$$$'s for Appel. I personally don't want them to do it. If he won't sign for what the 8 pick slot is worth, let him go and take the #8 pick, next season.

As it stands now, the Bucs likely won't be picking in the top 10 based on this season's performance. I feel confident they could use that #8 pick in the 2013 draft and get a player in the same relative pedigree as Appel in a draft that is to be deeper in quality prospects.

 

[sychmd]

I read today that Neal and Co. would be willing to discuss over slot $$$$$$'s for Appel. I personally don't want them to do it. If he won't sign for what the 8 pick slot is worth, let him go and take the #8 pick, next season.

As it stands now, the Bucs likely won't be picking in the top 10 based on this season's performance. I feel confident they could use that #8 pick in the 2013 draft and get a player in the same relative pedigree as Appel in a draft that is to be deeper in quality prospects.

i agree.
tell him his value drops each week, as he is only valuable if he gets in and starts playing and doesnt lose a year of pro ball. we are deep in pitching and can afford to roll the dice and get a better comp pick next year with the better draft, giving us 2 picks in the first round. unless he can be a trading chip this winter in a package, or he shows us enough that we can send another non cole, heredia, taillon pitching prospect in a great package for that grade A corner infielder/outfielder, he is less than the #9 next year.
he sounds like a smart kid and dedicated to his faith(doing the right thing) so hopefully boras (what was that pacino movie with keanu - devils advocate) doesnt take him to the dark side.
either way, the pirates win(unless they give him overslot, that could set up a bad precedent for our future picks).
hopefully it is mute as we will be drafting in the 20-30 range for the next 10 years!!!!!

 

[magnumo]

I read today that Neal and Co. would be willing to discuss over slot $$$$$$'s for Appel. I personally don't want them to do it. If he won't sign for what the 8 pick slot is worth, let him go and take the #8 pick, next season.

As it stands now, the Bucs likely won't be picking in the top 10 based on this season's performance. I feel confident they could use that #8 pick in the 2013 draft and get a player in the same relative pedigree as Appel in a draft that is to be deeper in quality prospects.

The Pirates can go 5% over their draft allocation ($6.56 million) without forfeiting draft choices. That amounts to $328,000. They DO pay a 75% "tax" to MLB on anything over their draft allocation. So..... the Pirates could commit the entire 5% to Appel, raising his offer from $2.9 million slot to $3.228 million. If Appel signs for that amount, the Pirates would need to pay MLB a "tax" of $246,000 (75% of $328,000)..... which means that they'd actually pay $3.474 million to sign Appel for $3.228 million..... but they would NOT forfeit any future draft picks.

I see essentially no chance that the Pirates will forfeit future draft picks in order to sign Appel, and I agree that is the right decision. Since a team begins to forfeit draft picks if they go a penny over 105% of their draft allocation, the only additional money which could be offered to Appel must be saved by signing other top-10-round draft picks for under slot. Since the Pirates drafted 3 college seniors later in the top 10 rounds, they probably intend to offer those guys under slot money, but the money saved won't be a whole lot, since slot money is much lower in those rounds.

At any rate, it seems that it's a smart position/tactic on the part of Huntington..... to state that he's WILLING to negotiate SOMETHING over slot (but it can't be anything close to the published number sought by Boras/Appel.) As an incentive to get Appel signed "early," Huntington could offer him something like $3.5 million, with the qualification that the offer could drop toward Appel's $2.9 million slot (or at least toward $3.228 mill) as other top 10 draft picks are signed.

(It's interesting that a couple of other teams have already signed their first round picks for well under slot. That probably helps the Pirates' position. It certainly DOESN'T help Boras/Appel.)

At this point, perhaps Huntington has put the ball AND the pressure in Boras's court..... since some of the over slot money available for Appel may disappear as other guys sign. Nonetheless, I continue to fear Boras and whatever shenanigans he may come up with.

Finally, I hope both of you (evolver115 & sychmd) are accurate in predicting that the Pirates' will have a much lower regular 1st round draft pick next year than has been typical over the past 20 years. I'm not yet ready to take that to the bank (since the season is barely 1/3 over), but my confidence grows with each win.

 

[evolver115]

Finally, I hope both of you (evolver115 & sychmd) are accurate in predicting that the Pirates' will have a much lower regular 1st round draft pick next year than has been typical over the past 20 years. I'm not yet ready to take that to the bank (since the season is barely 1/3 over), but my confidence grows with each win.

I hope we're right, Mags. Only time will tell. They certainly have a foundation laid among the pitching staff that I can't really ever recall seeing in the recent history of the Pirates. I predicted another sub .500 year before this season got going. Having seen the return on the production from A.J., Erik and J-Mac, I've changed my tune, somewhat.

It really makes all the difference in the world when you have solid starting pitching. The fabulous play of the bullpen also doesn't hurt.

 

[Burns80y]

The best thing Huntington could do is sign everyone in the top ten except Appel. Go to him and say here's what i got left. Either you take it or leave it.
There's no point in going to battle with Boras. Put a take it of leave it offer out and be done with it.

I doubt that another year in college or going to the Independent league will help his case. From all account next years draft if much deeper and he runs the risk of making even less money. I think the Pirates hold all the cards here. Its a win - win for the Pirates and a lose - lose for Appel/Boras.

 

[magnumo]

I hope we're right, Mags. Only time will tell. They certainly have a foundation laid among the pitching staff that I can't really ever recall seeing in the recent history of the Pirates. I predicted another sub .500 year before this season got going. Having seen the return on the production from A.J., Erik and J-Mac, I've changed my tune, somewhat.

It really makes all the difference in the world when you have solid starting pitching. The fabulous play of the bullpen also doesn't hurt.

Right on, evolver! It's all about the pitching. Huntington has done a nice job of developing a pitching staff in Pittsburgh, and he has some depth in the minors, both quality and quantity.

Now, he's GOTTA upgrade the offense without damaging the Pirates' major league pitching performance. Even with great pitching, it's tough to compete with the Major League's worst offense. On the other hand, the Pirates are doing remarkably well..... and I gotta give NH credit for that.

 

[magnumo]

Greetings, Burns80y

The best thing Huntington could do is sign everyone in the top ten except Appel. Go to him and say here's what i got left. Either you take it or leave it.
There's no point in going to battle with Boras. Put a take it of leave it offer out and be done with it.

I doubt that another year in college or going to the Independent league will help his case. From all account next years draft if much deeper and he runs the risk of making even less money. I think the Pirates hold all the cards here. Its a win - win for the Pirates and a lose - lose for Appel/Boras.

Nice to see you again.

Perhaps you're being hyperbolic with your first sentence. (I believe the best thing Huntington could do is sign ALL top 10 round picks, including Appel..... and do that without forfeiting any future draft picks.)

Other than that, I think you have summarized the situation nicely, and your theme is consistent with most others who have posted on the subject..... and it seems that Huntington has the situation well in hand.

My only remaining concern is that Boras will pull some kind of nasty rabbit out of his hat. From a dyed-in-the-wool baseball fan's perspective, I think Boras has had the worst influence on baseball since Marvin Milller.

 

[Burns80y]

Right on, evolver! It's all about the pitching. Huntington has done a nice job of developing a pitching staff in Pittsburgh, and he has some depth in the minors, both quality and quantity.

Now, he's GOTTA upgrade the offense without damaging the Pirates' major league pitching performance. Even with great pitching, it's tough to compete with the Major League's worst offense. On the other hand, the Pirates are doing remarkably well..... and I gotta give NH credit for that.

Mags,

I have been pretty bored at work today and that coupled with me being sick of hearing about the offense caused me to do some math and came up with this.

First 44 games 20-24 averaging 2.86 runs per game
Last 15 games 12-3 averaging 4.33 runs per game

While that is not setting the world on fire it is 1.47 runs above what they averaged the first 44 games and should be sustainable for the remainder of the season.

So just for the sake of making my point if the Pirates continued to score at a 4.33 rpg clip and the staff continues to allow 3.5 rpg for the remainder of the season. The Pirates would out score the opponents 445.99 to 360.5 for the remainder of the year. Again that is not an earth shattering number but it is 85.49 runs more than the opponent. That would leave the Pirates with a run differential of +68.49 runs on the season. Looking back at last years standings there were only 8 team that had a better run differential than that and 7 of those teams made the playoffs. The other was Boston who this year also would have made the playoffs.

I'm not saying that any of this will happen but the offense is not as bad as it showed the first 6 weeks of the season but i think the pitching is as good as it has been. Morton, Bedard and Burnett all have ERA's above what their xFIP would suggest. McDonald's ERA is slightly below what his xFIP would predict. The wildcard here is can Karstens come back and supplant Corriea as the 5th starter. I like Corriea better as the long guy out of the bullpen leaving lincoln in the 7th, grilli in the 8th and hanny to close it.

I know there are a lot of if's here but its June every team has a lot of ifs at this time of year and i don't think that the Pirates ifs are all that big. i hope they can make it happen but in the end only time will tell

 

[thecrow124]

The Pirates did draft 3 college seniors in the 6-10 pick range, so there is an opportunity to save some money there. Looking back I think that was the smartest way to go about it. There is no way you can punt on your comp, second and possibly third round pick, just to save up enough money to sign Appel.
I think overall out of the top 10 rounds, they will find a way to pocket about $500,000 plus the 4.99% overage, taking the amount they can offer Appel up to about $3.7ish million. Would he be willing to sign for that, I don't know, but it is much closer to what the top overall pick got than where he is now.
I have to think he is going to sign with us, but I also think Boras is going to do everything he can to impune Bud Selig and this new CBA, and I have no doubt in my mind that it will come at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Not that he holds any ill will towards us, it is just where Appel fell to. Had Appel gone first I think the same thing would have happened, but it would have happened to the Astros.
I just wish that these kids would realize that Boras is doing them no favors. Hei s looking out for nothing but the money that hits their bank account. Don't get me wrong, I think they deserve anything they can get, but he is doing it at the expense of their development. Unfortunately I think the only thing that is going to get these youngsters to take notice is for someone to skip the big payday they are offered and then have a career ending injury the next season. I pray that is not the case with Appel.

 

[magnumo]

Thanks for running those numbers, Burns80y. You make a convincing argument. I agree that, if the Pirates can sustain 4.33 runs per game, that will go a long way toward making the team a legitimate threat in the NL Central.

I agree with your thoughts about our pitching, as well.

I keep trying to become more optimistic about the Bucs' chances, and that post helped. Thanks much.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

Nice to see you again.

Perhaps you're being hyperbolic with your first sentence. (I believe the best thing Huntington could do is sign ALL top 10 round picks, including Appel..... and do that without forfeiting any future draft picks.)

Other than that, I think you have summarized the situation nicely, and your theme is consistent with most others who have posted on the subject..... and it seems that Huntington has the situation well in hand.

My only remaining concern is that Boras will pull some kind of nasty rabbit out of his hat. From a dyed-in-the-wool baseball fan's perspective, I think Boras has had the worst influence on baseball since Marvin Milller.

I agree Mags. I also feel Donald Fehr hurt Baseball, Big Time. Fehr did no favors for small market teams or competitive balance in Baseball, when he was the lead negotiator for the MLB Players Association.

My hope now is, that Fehr does not ruin Hockey as well, now that he is involved with the NHLPA.

Burgh

 

[Burns80y]

Thanks for running those numbers, Burns80y. You make a convincing argument. I agree that, if the Pirates can sustain 4.33 runs per game, that will go a long way toward making the team a legitimate threat in the NL Central.

I agree with your thoughts about our pitching, as well.

I keep trying to become more optimistic about the Bucs' chances, and that post helped. Thanks much.

Being a Pirate fan is tough sometimes we have to help each other find some positives.

 

[magnumo]

The Pirates did draft 3 college seniors in the 6-10 pick range, so there is an opportunity to save some money there. Looking back I think that was the smartest way to go about it. There is no way you can punt on your comp, second and possibly third round pick, just to save up enough money to sign Appel.
I think overall out of the top 10 rounds, they will find a way to pocket about $500,000 plus the 4.99% overage, taking the amount they can offer Appel up to about $3.7ish million. Would he be willing to sign for that, I don't know, but it is much closer to what the top overall pick got than where he is now.

<snip>

I'm aware of the 3 college seniors in rounds 6-10, and agree that NH's intent is to try to sign those guys under slot. However, I don't see how he can come up with more than a small part of $500K by doing that. Here are the Pirates' top 10 round picks, along with their slot allocations:

8. Mark Appel, P, Stanford $2.9 million
45. Barrett Barnes, OF, Texas Tech $1,136,400
69. Wyatt Mathisen, C, Texas HS $746,300
103. Jon Sandford, P, Florida HS $462,900
136. Brandon Thomas, OF, Georgia Tech $336,700
166. Adrian Sampson, P, Bellevue CC $252,100
196. Eric Wood, 3B, Blinn College $188,800
226. Jacob Stallings, C, University of North Carolina $148,000
256. Kevin Ross, SS, Illinois HS $138,200
286. Douglas Crumlich, SS, UC-Irvine $129,100
316. Pat Ludwig, P, Yale $125,000

If my understanding of the new CBA rules is correct, money becomes available for the Pirates to use for other draftees without penalty..... ONLY if a draftee signs for under slot. A key point is that if a player doesn't sign, the Pirates lose his slot allocation. So, "punting" isn't an option, if by punting you mean not signing a guy.

At this point, I'm not sure which of the round 6-through-10 draftees are college seniors, but the TOTAL slot allocations for ANY 3 players in rounds 6 through 10 doesn't equal $500,000. Since the Bucs MUST sign these guys (under slot) to make additional money available for Appel, the potential total from these rounds seems to be pretty small.

The Pirates reportedly have already signed their second round pick (Mathisen) for slot.

So..... it seems that the only way NH could come up with $500K extra for Appel is to sign higher round draft choices (Barnes, Sandford, Thomas, Sampson) under slot. I haven't followed these guys closely enough to know what's possible there.

At any rate, I see no point in quibbling over whether the max offer to Appel can be $3.7 mill or $3.5 mill. Under the circumstances, it almost certainly can't be ABOVE that range..... and might be lower. In fact, I'm betting that the longer Appel waits, the less he's likely to be offered.

Bottom line: I'm gonna be watching for signings and amounts with even more interest than in the past.

 

[magnumo]

Addendum

According to Charlie at Bucs Dugout, the three college seniors the Pirates drafted in rounds 6 - 10 are Stallings (round 7), Crumlich (round 9), and Ludwig (round 10). Their TOTAL slot allocation for those three players is $402,100.

By the way, Charlie has written a pretty comprehensive article on the Bucs' draft..... well worth a read for those interested:

MLB Draft 2012: Pirates Appear To Have Done Fairly Well Given Constraints - Bucs Dugout