So how much money should we offer Aaron Judge?

[Mays-Fan]

So how much money should we offer Aaron Judge?

This is the one that moves the needle.

He's a perfect fit: grew up a Giants fan, RHH, RF (decent fielder, btw).

He'll be 31 on April 26, 2023.

Currently Max Scherzer has the biggest annual salary at $43mm.

This guy says the offers should start at $300mm plus.

We have at least $100mm a year of cap room.

I'm thinking something like 7/315 or 8/360 ($45mm/yr), at least. I know it's a lot, but that is the market. We are competing against both NY teams, and I'm sure several others.

 

[calsnowskier]

I have always pictured something like 10/400.

I can’t imagine he has more than 3 more ELITE seasons left, then maybe another 3 solid seasons on top of that (MAYBE).

If that is the expectation, then let’s say an “elite” season is worth 40m and a “solid” season is worth 20m. That would say his contract should start at approx 180m. Add in the scarcity value (say x1.5?? — 270m) and a couple extra years of bonus pay (4/60) and that puts him at 330m. Adjust for inflation and general game salary trajection, and 10/400 kinda makes sense.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I have always pictured something like 10/400.

I can’t imagine he has more than 3 more ELITE seasons left, then Maury e another 3 solid seasons on top of that (MAYBE).

If that is the expectation, then let’s say an “elite” season is worth 40m and a “solid” season is worth 20m. That would say his contract should start at approx 180m. Add in the scarcity value (say x1.5?? — 270m) and a couple extra years of bonus pay (2/30) and that puts him at 300m. Adjust for inflation and general game salary trajection, and 10/400 kinda makes sense.

All good points, but with Scherzer making $43mm/yr, it's hard to imagine Judge taking less than that. That is, unless he's willing to take some structured deal that scales down, like 3/150 then 4/160 then 3/90 = 10/400 put together.

I may be wrong, but I'm not aware of a player that has a deal like that. Or even if the CBA allows that.

 

[calsnowskier]

All good points, but with Scherzer making $43mm/yr, it's hard to imagine Judge taking less than that. That is, unless he's willing to take some structured deal that scales down, like 3/150 then 4/160 then 3/90 = 10/400 put together.

I may be wrong, but I'm not aware of a player that has a deal like that.

Short contract vs LONG contract. You don’t get the AAV on contracts that include multiple seasons into your retirement.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Short contract vs LONG contract. You don’t get the AAV on contracts that include multiple seasons into your retirement.

I'm not sure what this means. Is there some CBA-related difference between a ST vs LT contract?

And what do you mean about "multiple seasons into your retirement"?

I'm not implying we get into Bobby Bonilla territory here - I know that is no longer allowed.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm not sure what this means. Is there some CBA-related difference between a ST vs LT contract?

And what do you mean about "multiple seasons into your retirement"?

I'm not implying we get into Bobby Bonilla territory here - I know that is no longer allowed.

I mean, there is no way the last few years will offer any value to the team. If he were just to sign a series of 1 or 2 year contracts, he likely wouldn’t last more than 6 or 7 more years, so giving him a 10 year contract is paying him well into his retirement (even if he is still on the team).

Giving Scherzer 2 years at 45 per is TOTALLY different from giving anyone 10 years at 45 per (maybe Soto or some other 23 year old would be OK).

Not saying it won’t happen. Just that whoever does it loses the contract battle.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I mean, there is no way the last few years will offer any value to the team. If he were just to sign a series of 1 or 2 year contracts, he likely wouldn’t last more than 6 or 7 more years, so giving him a 10 year contract is paying him well into his retirement (even if he is still on the team).

Giving Scherzer 2 years at 45 per is TOTALLY different from giving anyone 10 years at 45 per (maybe Soto or some other 23 year old would be OK).

Not saying it won’t happen. Just that whoever does it loses the contract battle.

Maybe I'm pipe dreaming, but in the last 5 years or so, the athletic world has made tremendous strides to (legally) increase the longevity of an athlete's performance - exercise science, nutrition and (legal) supplementation, sleep science, neurology, opthamology, etc. It's not a stretch to say that 40 is the new 30 when it comes to athletic performance. Look at Roger Federer in tennis, for example. He was 41 when he retired, pretty much or close to being on top. Also, Floyd Mayweather, or Roy Jones, Jr. Hell, George Foreman.

So I'm not so quick to say a batter's performance will completely deteriorate after age 35 or so anymore. Just sayin'.

 

[calsnowskier]

Maybe I'm pipe dreaming, but in the last 5 years or so, the athletic world has made tremendous strides to (legally) increase the longevity of an athlete's performance - exercise science, nutrition and (legal) supplementation, sleep science, neurology, opthamology, etc. It's not a stretch to say that 40 is the new 30 when it comes to athletic performance. Look at Roger Federer in tennis, for example. He was 41 when he retired, pretty much or close to being on top. Also, Floyd Mayweather, or Roy Jones, Jr. Hell, George Foreman.

So I'm not so quick to say a batter's performance will completely deteriorate after age 35 or so anymore. Just sayin'.

But even in that world, Judge is a unicorn. Dude is HUGE. His body will break down faster than everyone else, regardless of the “science” that helps him lengthen his career.

As a simple fan, I want us to “win the off season” and sign him, consequences be damned. But the more thoughtful “fan” in me hopes we lose out on him and instead get one of the top 3 SSs and 2 second tier OFers and a stud SP (there is this guy named “Rodon” who, I understand, is pretty studdly)

 

[Mays-Fan]

But even in that world, Judge is a unicorn. Dude is HUGE. His body will break down faster than everyone else, regardless of the “science” that helps him lengthen his career.

As a simple fan, I want us to “win the off season” and sign him, consequences be damned. But the more thoughtful “fan” in me hopes we lose out on him and instead get one of the top 3 SSs and 2 second tier OFers and a stud SP (there is this guy named “Rodon” who, I understand, is pretty studdly)

Eventually, Judge will evolve into a 1B. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure that out. That will mitigate the wear factor.

Also, we have well over $100mm in cap room, and Brandon Crawford, currently our highest paid, rolls off after 2023. So there is room for Judge PLUS the other needs you mention, at least to a large degree.

Further, signing Judge would send an unambiguous signal to the rest of the league that we are serious about contending. Very attractive to veterans who want to win and not live in LA or NY, and may be willing to take a discount on their contracts to play for a winner.

IMHO, go big (literally) or go home. This is a once in a generation opportunity, like Barry Bonds.

 

[calsnowskier]

Eventually, Judge will evolve into a 1B. Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure that out. That will mitigate the wear factor.

Also, we have well over $100mm in cap room, and Brandon Crawford, currently our highest paid, rolls off after 2023. So there is room for Judge PLUS the other needs you mention, at least to a large degree.

Further, signing Judge would send an unambiguous signal to the rest of the league that we are serious about contending. Very attractive to veterans who want to win and not live in LA or NY, and may be willing to take a discount on their contracts to play for a winner.

IMHO, go big (literally) or go home. This is a once in a generation opportunity, like Barry Bonds.

I don’t disagree with a word that you typed. But the fear of long contracts is Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez or Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder or …

 

[calsnowskier]

In fact, who was the last long contract that actually worked out in baseball?

 

[Mays-Fan]

I don’t disagree with a word that you typed. But the fear of long contracts is Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez or Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder or …

I completely agree, and absolutely get what you are saying. But in fairness, let's look at the ones you mentioned:

Pujols - not a horrible signing, but too much too late. Good community guy and clubhouse presence.​

​

Rodriguez - narcissistic head case. Everyone hates him.​

​

Hamilton - full of destructive demons.​

​

Prince Fielder - grossly obese for an athlete. Time would catch up to him sooner rather than later.​

So, I don't know much about Aaron Judge the person. But it's critical, as you point out, to weigh the immeasurable factors. Does he engage in destructive behavior? Is he dedicated to maintaining and improving his physical factors? Is he a good teammate?

If there are no obvious red flags, I vote we go after him.

 

[Mays-Fan]

In fact, who was the last long contract that actually worked out in baseball?

 

[Wamu]

Wait, what? Let me try this again.

 

[calsnowskier]

His contract couldn’t sink a small country, though. The money being talked about for Judge can cause recessions. And pre-juice Bonds was a smallish player who could envision aging with some kind of grace. You don’t look at very large men and extrapolate them to staying athletics-healthy well into their 30s.

And dropping Bonds as an example of a long contract paying off is akin to dropping a stink bomb in a crowded theater…

 

[Mays-Fan]

View attachment 312137


Wait, what? Let me try this again.


View attachment 312138

This oughta do it:

 

[Hangman]

I hate giving large money to someone whose best years are behind them and for another team. 31 is old

 

[Mays-Fan]

His contract couldn’t sink a small country, though. The money being talked about for Judge can cause recessions. And pre-juice Bonds was a smallish player who could envision aging with some kind of grace. You don’t look at very large men and extrapolate them to staying athletics-healthy well into their 30s.

And dropping Bonds as an example of a long contract paying off is akin to dropping a stink bomb in a crowded theater…

Given inflation and the money flowing into baseball vis-a-vis the contracts we signed with Bonds, I don't think it would be all that much different. Bonds made $22mm in 2005, which will be 18 years ago come the start of next year. I realize he was coming off the best 4 year stretch in baseball history, but Judge's 2022 is right up there with that.

And I already addressed the "aging" thing. Times and science have changed for this, especially in the last 5-10 years. It all depends on Judge's dedication to his overall fitness.

 

[Wamu]

I hate giving large money to someone whose best years are behind them and for another team. 31 is old

You means 31 is old for an athlete or that 31 is just old in general?

 

[Mays-Fan]

I hate giving large money to someone whose best years are behind them and for another team. 31 is old

This is laughable. To like it is even more laughable (sorry Cal). You say his best years are behind him, when he just had the best year of his career.

And I already addressed whether being 31 (and that doesn't happen for another 6 months) is a factor.

And what difference does it make that it was for another team? Absolutely none whatsoever.