Smart's Bubble Watch (Selection Sunday Morning)

[Smart]

This will be my last Bubble Watch. I should post my Final Predicted Seeds about an hour before the Selection Show. I won't ba available to discuss my picks until sometime around then.

Autobids:
UNC Asheville
Belmont
Murray State
Creighton
Montana
VCU
Detroit
Loyola (MD)
LIU Brooklyn
Lehigh
Davidson
Western Kentucky
St. Mary’s
Harvard
Vermont
Missouri
Louisville
Long Beach State
Memphis
Ohio
Norfolk State
New Mexico
Colorado
Lamar
Miss Valley State
New Mexico State

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Florida State
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Wichita State
Vanderbilt
Indiana
Iowa State
Virginia
Saint Louis
Kansas State
Cincy
Temple
Purdue
Alabama

All But Locks (90%-99%):
BYU
California (-)
West Virginia (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Texas
South Florida
UConn
Southern Miss (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
NC State
Xavier
Colorado State
Mississippi State
Washington
Drexel (-)
--------------------------------------- (Current Dividing Line)
Miami
Northwestern
Arizona (-)


Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Ole Miss
Seton Hall

All But Out (1%-10%):
Oregon (--)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
Tennessee (--)
UCF (-)
Iona (-)

That gives us:
26 Autobids
29 Locks
3 All But Locks
4 Most Likely In
9 On The Bubble (Dividing Line at 6)
2 Most Likely Out
1 All But Out

If St. Bonaventure wins, they obviously shift the dividing line up one, knocking out Drexel. I had a really tough time with the last few teams. There's a lot of logic to most of the bubble teams. The simply question is "What logic will the committee emphasize"? If I knew the answer, somebody would be paying me to do this.

 

[ida one]

The list looks good, But i think Washington is out and Oregon may have a shot at a at large bid

 

[Smart]

Final adjustments to the Bubble Watch:

St. Bonaventure gets in as an autobid. (Florida State, Vanderbilt, and the winner of MSU/OSU also become autobids).

Xavier falls behind Mississippi State and Colorado State, but is ahead of Washington.

With the bubble shrinking by one, Drexel becomes the first team out instead of the last team in.

With on less spot available, Arizona goes from "On the Bubble" to "Most Likely Out."