Smart's Bubble Watch (3/1)

[Smart]

Usual disclaimers apply. Also, I did not rank the teams within each category. I should do that when my next one comes out in a week or so.

Locks (99%+) (24):
Virginia
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Duke
Louisville
Kansas
Iowa State
Villanova
Butler
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Wichita State
Arizona
Utah
Kentucky
Gonzaga
Oklahoma (+)
Baylor (+)
Northern Iowa (+)
Arkansas (+)
Georgetown (+)
West Virginia (+)
Maryland (++)
SMU (++)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (8):
VCU
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Michigan State (+)
Dayton (+)
Providence (+)
St. Johns (++)
LSU (++)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (8):
Cincy
Indiana
Iowa
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Georgia
NC State (+)
Purdue (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (10):
Tulsa
Temple
Xavier
Illinois
Colorado State
Stanford
Texas (-)
Davidson (+)
Boise State (+)
Oregon (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (5):
Rhode Island
BYU
Miami (-)
UCLA (+)
Pitt (+)


All But Out (1%-10%) (11):
Minnesota
Louisiana Tech
Murray State
Vanderbilt
Old Dominion (+)
UConn (-)
George Washington (--)
Seton Hall (--)
Alabama (-)
Stephen F. Austin (-)
St. Marys (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Memphis (-)
UMass (-)
Clemson (-)
Kansas State (-)
Michigan (-)
Bowling Green (-)
Buffalo (-)
Toledo (-)
Green Bay (--)
Valparaiso (-)
Tennessee (-)
Florida (-)
Arizona State (-)
Wyoming (--)
Oregon State (--)

 

[BearDownUA]

I'd be ecstatic if the Pac could get 4 teams in. I think 2 of Stanford/Oregon/UCLA will make it

 

[SteelersPride]

whats the + and -

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

whats the + and -

I'm assuming + means jumped up a group. ++ jumped up two groups, etc.

 

[rmilia1]

I think my Hawks should be in the next group up SB. Their resume is very very similar, if not better, than Ohio states and if you look at efficiency numbers iowa is in the top 25. That ranks ahead of at least 7 teams you have as locks or all but in.

 

[Smart]

I'd be ecstatic if the Pac could get 4 teams in. I think 2 of Stanford/Oregon/UCLA will make it

Oregon's in a very good position. I almost put them in "Most Likely In," and they have a great chance to move up with a true road win against Stanford. If they can win two more games (with 2 remaining plus the PTT), I'd be stunned if they missed the dance.

It's more bleak for Stanford and UCLA. Stanford's position will depend on whether they beat Oregon. If they do, they are on the right side of the bubble. If they don't, they have a loss at home in a huge bubble game, and the committee hates that. If they can't beat Oregon or Arizona, they would be left with 0 wins over tourney locks and 3 terrible losses. They would certainly be out with out a PTT run. UCLA has two good wins, but they have looked woefully overmatched every other time they took on good teams. The committee will be scared of giving a bubble spot to a team with 7 double-digit losses in 9 games. I think they need 4 more wins to truly be secure, and 3 would likely send them to a play-in.

whats the + and -

Like Trolly said, it's where they have moved since the last Bubble Watch. There actually was surprisingly little movement, especially around the bubble. The teams that were there 3 weeks ago are pretty much there now.

 

[Smart]

I think my Hawks should be in the next group up SB. Their resume is very very similar, if not better, than Ohio states and if you look at efficiency numbers iowa is in the top 25. That ranks ahead of at least 7 teams you have as locks or all but in.

Both Iowa and Indiana are tough. Whichever team wins head to head will basically be a lock. Whichever team loses will have to win at least another game. If Iowa didn't collapse last year or you didn't lose to Northwestern earlier, I would have you a step up. Obviously, if you lose you have an easier game than Indiana (who plays MSU), but those two facts give me some reason to doubt.

I expect Iowa will be a lock by the end of the week. I think you beat Indiana in Bloomington and take care of Northwestern. I think Indiana is this year's Iowa...the team everyone assumes will be a lock but will end the year on a skid and back their way into the First Four.

 

[tducey]

Thanks for posting this, going to be interesting to see who ends up making the tournament.

 

[jontaejones]

Commenting more on my opinion and not predicting what the committee will pick...

Texas should not be in this conversation. It doesn't matter that they've lost to good teams. They've lost all of them and they lost them at home. They have 5 losses at home and have not beaten a team above 79 on the road.

Xavier should be out if they finish under .500 but they likely won't.

VCU is a different team without Briante Weber. They are probably a borderline tournament team without him.