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Senzel to the outfield

Hit-n-Run

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Senzel playing multiple positions has been the intended goal since being drafted. It hasn't materialized to the some extent due to injuries, but I haven't heard anything that suggest that plan has changed. I think initially they'll try and capitalize on his versatility, but eventally he'll settle in one position. Where he finds a home may be determined more by where other legit offensive prospects can't play. Senzel's versatility makes the puzzle easier to assemble.

I think it's a bit of a stretch to assume CF is going to be manned on a regular basis by someone already on the roster. Ervin and Schebler are below average defensive players and Winker may be the slowest player in the league. Billy Hamilton was non-tendered because the price didn't match the talent. I expect the club to sign/trade for a better defensive option than currently available. They may pay more than Hamilton's projected salary for a player that does more than run fast and smile alot. Either way they can pick up a glove first CF for less than $6M if that becomes the only remaining option.
 

JohnU

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Trades are curious beasts. Following the dots for Raisel Iglesias, signed to a very friendly contract amid the fact that the Reds have more league-average relievers than they need, if the plan is to turn Garrett into something other than a motorized middle man. Is the closer really the way to go? Trends suggest overwise, but putting that foot in the water ... not many managers are doing it because their FO's fucked up and built a roster wrong. Different rant. Cincy could also trade to get Chapman back. (right)

Clearly everything revolves around Scooter and his value is mixed, if you read the pundits' opinions. The potential upgrade at 2B could matter there. Jonny India, a top 3B, isn't terribly far behind Senzel, I think, and Trammell will be ready in 2020.

Cincy could flip (say, to Philly) Raisel for Herrera ... and in a year flip Herrera for a guy they need at that time.

Meanwhile, they have to keep somebody decent on the leash at 1B because Votto isn't a robot.

Either way, CF will be an adventure. There's no way Senzel is better there than Schebler, which isn't to say he can't be.
 

Hit-n-Run

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I'd say the odds are they'll sign a league minimum defensive CF and mix and match with their fingers crossed.

Winker can hit and will catch anything hit close to him. Won't be catching many flyballs in the gap or leading the league in OF assist. I'd be happy if he throws out more than none.

Schebler gives them a slightly below league batting average, but does have power and better speed than most would think. But he has a lousy arm also.

There's a lot of 1st to 3rd opportunities for opposing teams when facing the Reds. It doesn't officially show up in the box score, but it does cost them runs. And it's not as if this pitching staff needs any help giving up runs.

Good defense is often taken for granted until it begins to look like a track meet on the base paths.
 

The Q

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Why not just play Suarez at SS and use Senzel at 3b?
 

JohnU

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Why not just play Suarez at SS and use Senzel at 3b?
I don't know if that's not on the table but I guess they see Peraza as pretty good for the price. The issue with me is whether they are hanging onto Scooter because he's good for attendance (he isn't) or if he's a .300/30 HR guy. It's tough to argue against Scooter and it's easy to say Senzel is thus far a paper tiger. Once he actually hits MLB pitching, he will be the guy they say he is. All evidence points to that.
They let Dillson go, so the plan moving forward is to let Senzel hit his way into the lineup. The fact that he hasn't played CF isn't an indictment. He just happens to be a very good infielder. Most infielders can play adequate outfield. He has a strong arm.
 

JohnU

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There's a lot of 1st to 3rd opportunities for opposing teams when facing the Reds. It doesn't officially show up in the box score, but it does cost them runs. And it's not as if this pitching staff needs any help giving up runs.

Good defense is often taken for granted until it begins to look like a track meet on the base paths.
The Reds are averaging 11 wins a month over the last 4 years and in order to compete, you need to win 15. How they get from 11 to 15 is easy enough on paper -- just play better. First you need to identify why you are losing 16 games a month.
It isn't all just bad pitching and bad pitching is sometimes the product of innings that get out of hand.
Watching these guys last year, there was a daily event that turned a potential win into a loss. A lot of it was poor outfield defense or lousy baserunning, poor decisions on throws, failure to take the extra base, the whole shee-bang.
BC wants to "get the pitching" because he's boiled everything down to a simple meme -- and he has zero way of doing that.
 

eburg5000

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A cheap way to go in center could be to platoon Erivn and Williams, Or if they feel the need to move Peraza, they could move him to center. He played there a few years back and did a fair job. But who really knows what they are going to do. Its all a guessing game.

I like Scooter, and I don't want to see him go to another team. But Baseball is a business so who knows.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Mason Williams was released the same day they dumped Dilson Herrera. Dill pickle signed with the Mets and Williams is a free agent. He could be re-signed by the Reds, but for now he's not in the picture. I'm not sure what the club didn't like about Mason Williams, but I thought he did a nice job in the role he was given.

I can't see why anyone wouldn't like what Scooter did the last two seasons. I've always liked Scooter, even when he was a Brewer. Doesn't mean I want the club to give him a 6 yr/$75M+ contract. This club is just now getting out from under multiple disastrous long term deals that crippled them. Scooter may well have a couple good seasons ahead of him, but if he's looking for more than 2-3 years with an option I hope they let him walk.

Votto had his first un-Votto like season without being significantly injured. He has stated he felt a step behind most of the season. I know what he means. I felt the same way when I starting getting old. I don't know how well he'll play moving forward, but I do believe 2017 was his last really good season. Father time out runs us all at some point.
 

JohnU

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Votto had his first un-Votto like season without being significantly injured. He has stated he felt a step behind most of the season. I know what he means. I felt the same way when I starting getting old. I don't know how well he'll play moving forward, but I do believe 2017 was his last really good season. Father time out runs us all at some point.

I hear ya. Votto seemed content to get on base, which is fine unless you are the 3 hitter in the lineup and that's all you do. I suspect his doubles numbers will begin to decline pretty fast and he may eventually try to compensate by swinging for the Moon Deck.

There goes the OBP.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The water is still too muddy to see how all this is going to shake out. Trades could play a major role in projecting who fits where. Senzel and India are the more versatile of the current prospects. Shed Long is considered the least athletic of the ones getting closer to being ready. IMO, he'd be the one most likely traded. I don't think the Reds can afford to trade any prospect ranked ahead of Shed long.

A few years ago Aristides Aquino was considered a note worthy prospect. He's been non-tendered this fall. Jose Siri popped up on the radar and was added to the 40 man. His stock has fallen and is now listed as the 4th best OF prospect. If you're the 4th best OF prospect in the Reds system you're two years away from being Aristides Aquino and/or Yorman Rodriguez. I'd trade him if it sweetened a deal enough to acquire a pitcher.

The OF that might hit GABP first is TJ Friedl. He'd need to be added to the 40 man this fall and an early addition mid season wouldn't be surprising if the need arises. I could see other teams having a level of interest in him as well.
 

Hit-n-Run

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It wouldn't surprise me to see Winker or Schebler traded. The Reds and Cleveland share a ST facility and I'd guess they know each other pretty well. Cleveland is looking for an MLB ready outfielder and rumored to be considering trading Bauer or Kluber. I have no idea if their is mutual interest, just spreading manure before the scribes do.
 

JohnU

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Winker's offensive numbers are still fairly appealing for a team that eventually is going to build an offense around Suarez and maybe Senzel. Schebler ... maybe. Schebler **could** get better. Both are ideal for DH leagues.

Honestly, the waft is pretty strong on either Kluber or Bauer. I think that's going to happen. Which is better? Um ... compared to Tim Adleman or Homer Bailey.....

I think any outfielder who brings a high lift rate and low whiff rate can get a roster spot. Siri probably K's too much. Hell, who doesn't now?

Friedl is intriguing. Kinda just under the radar. Gets on base a lot, as I recall reading. Not much power.

Seems like too many of these guys are just shifted around to make use of organizational deals. I guess agents need to make a living. Trading for Triple-A outfielders sounds like fun for people who get paid to do that.

No farm system ever won a pennant.

To some end, for the Reds to succeed, it's a matter of a half-dozen guys having career/extremely lucky years at the same time. You get all 5 starters to make 31 starts ... you win 97 games. You wait another 97 years for that to happen again.
 

eburg5000

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I'd like to see what Winker could do over a whole season.
 

JohnU

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Goldschmidt is the 800-pound gorilla now for the Birds, who have climbed over the fence. Finally facing the fact that their infield is old, slow, inept and, combined with an outfield that is just as bad, they still almost made the post-season. They will dump Martinez now and I'd guess they will soon find a reason to dispatch Carpenter. All they need to do now is 'get the pitching.'

Where that leaves the Reds is kind of like where they were last year when the Brewers upgraded without anybody's permission. The Pirates have a staff ace now in Archer and some smart people in the front office, but not much money.

The Cubs are going to sign somebody and they might begin to rebuild with decent parts.

The point of this: The Reds are still apparently of the belief that one or two upgrades will make them contenders. One step forward, yes ... but everybody else is doing the same thing. Going from 65 wins to 75 wins is not what I had in mind. "Wow, we were flirting with .500 until that last week."

Bullshit.
 

CB3UK

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Id still like to see us shell out big money for reliable starting pitching. Roark is a stsrt but we need a 1 and a 2. Yall have pretty well covered our defensive needs ITT, I tend to side on the "we can fill needs with our AAA" side of things for the one or 2 holes we have, if we are deciding between adding more quality pitching or sacrificing a quality pitching acquisition in the name of replacing Billy with a known commodity.

Also reading through the responses in here reminded me about us not bringing Senzel up while Suarez was injured at the beginning of the year and it just made me angrier at this clubs boneheaded ways.
 

JohnU

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Reds need a 20-game swing from the last 4 years to be in a position where they can say they are close to contending. One pitcher won't give them more than 3 or 4 of that total. The 20 wins is less than a win a week more but a win a week more is really hard to do with the current roster. If they add 2 wins a month, it's 12 wins ... takes you out of field goal range in the June draft.
 

Redsfan1507

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Schebler has the worst MLB arm since Jonny Damon. RF is supposed to be the best arm....Both he and Winkler have as much range as a couple shrubs. Not sure anyone else is more than a 4th OF, glove or bat-wise. You can’t play 3 left fielders. Peraza is the best SS on the team, but may also be the best CF. Question is, if you ask 1 or more players to play another position, do you net more or less outs / and /or does the bat make up for it ?
 

JohnU

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Teaching Winker to play a little first base may not be a bad idea, unless they think Barnhart can handle that. A bad 1B translates to a bad SS and a bad 3B. I am a little more optimistic about their hitting but defense is going to be challenged. I hear nothing that implies Peraza is going to get any reps in the outfield.
 

JohnU

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Reds are saying CF is basically Senzel's to win or lose after the training is complete. They have 6 outfielders on the roster, 7 if you count utility guy Conner Joe.

So if we assume Senzel starts the year in AAA, when he comes up, somebody has to go. Say it ain't so, Joe.
 
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