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SEC Fatigue

Gator

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The national title game this year wouldve been

Bama vs Michigan under the old system

The only reason UGA won the title is because they expanded from 2 to 4

Most years 1 of the top 2 teams wins but not every year

If we expanded further the aame would be true. Most years 1 or 2 would win. However there would be years 5/6/7/8 would win
I'm not so sure about your analysis. Remember it was an average of the AP (Bama and Mich), the Harris Poll ( non existent) and 6 computer polls.
The Massey Composite which is a combination of polls had for Dec 4 rankings #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama.
 

Nat Mann

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The problem with college football is that there aren't enough OOC games involving the better teams in the regular season. In 2021 there were a total of 39 OOC games played during the regular season between P5 teams, but exactly 3 OOC games were played between P5 teams that ended up in the top 25 (ND vs Wisc, ND vs Purdue, and Georgia vs Clemson). That's ridiculous!
It's a valid point, but college football games are scheduled years in advance. It's hard to know in advance which teams are going to FINISH in the top 25 the year you play them, especially when you schedule the game four years ahead of time!

It is good that since Strength Of Schedule became important that teams are starting to schedule at least one of the OOC games with a team that they think (hope!) will be competitive when they finally play them.

Given the amount of guessing involved actually having three OOC all-Top-25 games happen in a given year is not bad.
 

rmilia1

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I'm not so sure about your analysis. Remember it was an average of the AP (Bama and Mich), the Harris Poll ( non existent) and 6 computer polls.
The Massey Composite which is a combination of polls had for Dec 4 rankings #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama.
Alabama was 1 in the BCS and Michigan was 2

Theres sites that show you what it wouldve been under the old system
 

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It's a valid point, but college football games are scheduled years in advance. It's hard to know in advance which teams are going to FINISH in the top 25 the year you play them, especially when you schedule the game four years ahead of time!

It is good that since Strength Of Schedule became important that teams are starting to schedule at least one of the OOC games with a team that they think (hope!) will be competitive when they finally play them.

Given the amount of guessing involved actually having three OOC all-Top-25 games happen in a given year is not bad.
Anyone can google to see a list of the w/l records over say the past 10 seasons. First, look at the list and find your team and your conference bretheren. If your team is the 3rd winningest team in your conference, then look for teams 1-5 in other conferences and try to book two games with them. That will produce 15 potential opponents. If everyone does this then matching teams up will be easy because you're going to be on their list too!
 

Nat Mann

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Anyone can google to see a list of the w/l records over say the past 10 seasons. First, look at the list and find your team and your conference bretheren. If your team is the 3rd winningest team in your conference, then look for teams 1-5 in other conferences and try to book two games with them. That will produce 15 potential opponents. If everyone does this then matching teams up will be easy because you're going to be on their list too!
That's not a bad idea, but it's not the same thing as trying to schedule a game against one of some future year's top 25.
 

Gator

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That's not a bad idea, but it's not the same thing as trying to schedule a game against one of some future year's top 25.
Teams may miss sometimes but if my math is correct there are 300 possible games that can be played between teams 1-25. Some of those will be in-conference games but many will be OOC games. What ever it is would be higher than the 3 games played last year! There must be MORE OOC games.

Consider two conferences with the in-conference ranking of A, B, C AND 1, 2, 3. You want to find the top 4 teams. There are at least 22 different arrangements of the six teams keeping the two sequences intact.
A<B<C<1<2<3
A<B<1<C<2<3
.
.
.
A<1<B<2<C<3
.
.
.
1<2<3<A<B<C

Without any data to connect the two conferences how can anyone or any computer figure out which sequence is the correct one for the 4 team playoff? Now imagine trying it with just the 5 P5 conferences with four team in each to consider (after all, it IS possible that all 4 teams could be from the same conference) and only THREE games to connect the conferences!!!
 

Nat Mann

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Teams may miss sometimes but if my math is correct there are 300 possible games that can be played between teams 1-25. Some of those will be in-conference games but many will be OOC games. What ever it is would be higher than the 3 games played last year! There must be MORE OOC games.

I like the idea of more top tier OOC games, but what you're asking for is OOC games where BOTH teams are in the top 25 at the end of the year. The problem is that it's very difficult to predict who the top 25 teams are going to be at the end of 2021 when you're scheduling games in 2017.

Of the top 25 teams at the end of 2017, only 9 of them were in the top 25 at the end of 2021.
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Once you cut out the teams from the same conference, that doesn't leave so many possibilities. And the REAL trick is figuring out which teams are going to be in the top 25 four+ years from now.
 

Gator

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I like the idea of more top tier OOC games, but what you're asking for is OOC games where BOTH teams are in the top 25 at the end of the year. The problem is that it's very difficult to predict who the top 25 teams are going to be at the end of 2021 when you're scheduling games in 2017.

Of the top 25 teams at the end of 2017, only 9 of them were in the top 25 at the end of 2021.
Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Once you cut out the teams from the same conference, that doesn't leave so many possibilities. And the REAL trick is figuring out which teams are going to be in the top 25 four+ years from now.
Point taken. They don't all have to be top 25. In 2021, of the 65 P5 teams only 56 teams played another P5 team in the regular season.
1 team played 9 P5 (ND)
1 team played 3 P5 (Stanford)
12 teams played 2 P5
42 teams played 1 P5
________________________
56 teams played 78 P5 opponents (really only 39 games)
9 teams played NO P5

I'm proposing that ND play 10 P5 & 10 ND opponents play 1 more P5 (total of 15 games)
The remaining 54 P5 teams play 2 other P5 opponent (total of 54 games)
New total is 69 games vs the current 39 games (77% more P5 vs P5 games).
 

WABLTY

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The transfer portal and NIL (especially) are going to change the landscape of the conferences. Those that have multiple schools in big cities will benefit the most.
It is possible the PAC 12 will benefit the most from the NIL system. Los Angeles (two schools), San Francisco area (two schools), Seattle, Phoenix and Denver.
Big 10 may be next with Chicago, Minneapolis, Columbus, Detroit (Ann Arbor), and Newark/New York (Rutgers).
The ACC with Atlanta (Georgia Tech), the triangle around Charlette, Miami might do well.
Over time the Big 12 will be weak although Houston and Cincinnati will help.
The SEC could suffer, but the addition of Austin will help.
The point is sponsors, especially local ones, are going to support players where there is enough population to justify big expenditure. That money will draw the players. The top 10 or twelve players will draw national endorsements but only as long as their teams keep them in the spotlight.

ND could be a big winner with its NBC TV contact and national schedule. Every year they will play games in all four time zones, big national sponsors will like that.
I don't think large demographics are likely to factor in unless there's a proven benefit from endorsing/advertising with college athletes. If companies start making money doing it, and I hope they do, it'd change a lot of things up.

I remain skeptical.
 

Ron G

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I don't think large demographics are likely to factor in unless there's a proven benefit from endorsing/advertising with college athletes. If companies start making money doing it, and I hope they do, it'd change a lot of things up.

I remain skeptical.
My point is, for example, you are 3-star QB. Mississippi State offers a scholarship. A car dealer in a town of 25,000 (Starkville) with a surrounding area of 200,000 offers a $20,000 spokesman contract. University of Souht Florida in Tampa has a multiple location car dealership with a marketing area of over 1.5 million people offers the same player $75,000. Which does he pick?

This would actually play itself out more with even higher rated linemen. Offensive lineman will be on the bottom of the endorsement ladder. Except for college recruiters, who can name 2 of the 5-star high school centers in the country.

Defensive players would come in pretty high as their names are mentioned more often during the course of the game. Even the best wide receivers only get the ball 5 to 8 times a game.

Most people could not name the center and guards on their favorite teams.

I wonder how the dynamic will play out with a freshman QB getting from $25,000 to a $100,000 with an offensive line that gets next to nothing.
Except for high population areas there will not be enough local money to pay players in the less visible positions.

And those linemen that blossom into 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round potential picks will be leaving the small area for the bigger city lights after their sophomore years.

Group 5 schools in high population areas could really benefit. Also, private school (if academic don't get in the way) such as Vanderbilt (Nashville), Rice (Houston), Northwestern (Evanston/Chicago), SMU (Dallas). Duke (the Carolina area), University of Miami, Stanford, and of course a lot of the privates in big cities that are only Basketball Schools.

I wonder how much pressure will be put on the NCAA to eliminate the rule about taking off the helmet while on the field. Sponsors are going to want their guy's face to be seen.

A lot of unanswered questions and unintended consequences to be considered.
 

WABLTY

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My point is, for example, you are 3-star QB. Mississippi State offers a scholarship. A car dealer in a town of 25,000 (Starkville) with a surrounding area of 200,000 offers a $20,000 spokesman contract. University of Souht Florida in Tampa has a multiple location car dealership with a marketing area of over 1.5 million people offers the same player $75,000. Which does he pick?

This would actually play itself out more with even higher rated linemen. Offensive lineman will be on the bottom of the endorsement ladder. Except for college recruiters, who can name 2 of the 5-star high school centers in the country.

Defensive players would come in pretty high as their names are mentioned more often during the course of the game. Even the best wide receivers only get the ball 5 to 8 times a game.

Most people could not name the center and guards on their favorite teams.

I wonder how the dynamic will play out with a freshman QB getting from $25,000 to a $100,000 with an offensive line that gets next to nothing.
Except for high population areas there will not be enough local money to pay players in the less visible positions.

And those linemen that blossom into 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round potential picks will be leaving the small area for the bigger city lights after their sophomore years.

Group 5 schools in high population areas could really benefit. Also, private school (if academic don't get in the way) such as Vanderbilt (Nashville), Rice (Houston), Northwestern (Evanston/Chicago), SMU (Dallas). Duke (the Carolina area), University of Miami, Stanford, and of course a lot of the privates in big cities that are only Basketball Schools.

I wonder how much pressure will be put on the NCAA to eliminate the rule about taking off the helmet while on the field. Sponsors are going to want their guy's face to be seen.

A lot of unanswered questions and unintended consequences to be considered.
I get what you're saying, but my point is that until there are actual proven monetary benefits for NIL contracts, we're not going to see too many businesses getting very involved in the bigger markets because they tend to be pro sports towns. Are the biggest car dealerships or whatever in Chicago going to be shelling out bucks because they think the best players at NW or Illinois will bring them a return on their investment? Is Temple going to make a killing off the Philly market all of a sudden?

I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm saying I think most businesses that would genuinely want the players for advertising purposes are going to remain on the sidelines until there's a shown pathway to get a return on their investment. Until then, it's going to be largely boosters and their companies that are just enjoying not having to pass bags of cash on the sly anymore.

It's an immature marketplace. We'll see how it fleshes itself out.

I also think we're going to see collective bargaining and/or profit sharing potentially rear its head too. Unionization was already floating out there.
 

LoftonPack80

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What's stopping the NCAA from taking away schools ability to schedule their own OOC schedules years in advance? How about 1 of 3 OOC games is determined among the P5 by the previous years records? 1st place vs 1 place, 2vs2 etc etc among the P5. Give them 1 or 2 OOC they can schedule cupcakes for but have at least 1 game where we know they will all face stiffer comp. Another thing that always bugged me was the SEC having basically a bye week in week 11 by scheduling some tomato can to beat up on. If they still do that that too should be 86'd. We don't need Bama/Mercer the week before the Iron Bowl
 

Nat Mann

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No, there will NEVER be 4 SEC teams in an expanded to 8 team playoff.
I don't see why not. Let's say Alabama and LSU run out their schedules except that one beats the other, which has happened. So there's an SEC West team at 12-0 and another at 11-1. The same thing happens with, say, Georgia and Florida. Even after the SEC title game that would leave a 13-0 team, a 12-1 team and two 11-1 teams. Which one are you going to keep out of an 8 team playoff?

Sure it's not likely, but it's well out of the NEVER category.
 

Gator

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What's stopping the NCAA from taking away schools ability to schedule their own OOC schedules years in advance? How about 1 of 3 OOC games is determined among the P5 by the previous years records? 1st place vs 1 place, 2vs2 etc etc among the P5. Give them 1 or 2 OOC they can schedule cupcakes for but have at least 1 game where we know they will all face stiffer comp.
I am in agreement with scheduling better OOC games. There are too many IN-conference games and not enough quality OOC games. There should be 8 in conference games, 2 quality OOC P5 opponents, 1 quality G5 opponent and 1 game up to them. By "quality" I mean a team with similar in-conference standing.


Another thing that always bugged me was the SEC having basically a bye week in week 11 by scheduling some tomato can to beat up on. If they still do that that too should be 86'd. We don't need Bama/Mercer the week before the Iron Bowl
This is a complaint that has always fascinated me. A team has 6 months off but still can't get ready for tough games. Why schedule all of the "cupcakes" in the first 3-4 weeks? Just because your conference/team is too stupid to spread out the easy games why should my team be forced to do so also????
 

LoftonPack80

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I am in agreement with scheduling better OOC games. There are too many IN-conference games and not enough quality OOC games. There should be 8 in conference games, 2 quality OOC P5 opponents, 1 quality G5 opponent and 1 game up to them. By "quality" I mean a team with similar in-conference standing.



This is a complaint that has always fascinated me. A team has 6 months off but still can't get ready for tough games. Why schedule all of the "cupcakes" in the first 3-4 weeks? Just because your conference/team is too stupid to spread out the easy games why should my team be forced to do so also????
I look at the cupcake scheduling as a college version of a preseason. Use them games to tune up. By week 11 you shouldn't need a punching bag team to be playing, every conference has bottom feeders, put one of them in that spot if you need to have that guaranteed win game late in the year. OOC to me should be before you start conference play, but that's just me
 

fredsdeadfriend

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I don't see why not. Let's say Alabama and LSU run out their schedules except that one beats the other, which has happened. So there's an SEC West team at 12-0 and another at 11-1. The same thing happens with, say, Georgia and Florida. Even after the SEC title game that would leave a 13-0 team, a 12-1 team and two 11-1 teams. Which one are you going to keep out of an 8 team playoff?

Sure it's not likely, but it's well out of the NEVER category.
Well, the likelihood of it happening is almost zero, but even if you disregard that aspect, simply out of principle it would never happen, the selection committee or rules committee would probably prohibit it ever happening and it would not be good for ratings or for the playoffs image, either.
 

LawDawg

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Well, the likelihood of it happening is almost zero, but even if you disregard that aspect, simply out of principle it would never happen, the selection committee or rules committee would probably prohibit it ever happening and it would not be good for ratings or for the playoffs image, either.
Well, it's a moot point because there won't be an 8 team playoff. It's clearly going to be 12, it's just a matter of when, how AQs are handled, and how the bowl system will be involved.

Based on past numbers, the SEC and B1G would have had 4 teams get in in a given year.
 
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