SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 7

[Chewbaccer]

Hard to believe that the regular season is halfway over isn't it? Just seems like yesterday when we were doing our preseason rankings and fans of every team were excited for the upcoming season. Some fans still share the same excitement they did a week before the season, for others(like me), our teams have not lived up to expectations and we're just hoping to salvage something.

It's been a rather eventful week in SEC land. Nick Chubb is likely done for the season with ligament and cartilage damage, but if there's a silver lining, his ACL was in tact. Will Grier will be suspended by the NCAA for an entire calendar year for violating the substance abuse policy, and will be a huge blow for the undefeated Florida Gators. And finally, Steve Spurrier has announced his retirement effective immediately. As a Georgia fan, I can't say I'm sad to see him go, but I have always respected his coaching ability. He turned Florida into one of the premiere programs in the country and is by far the best coach that South Carolina has ever had. Great career, Old Ball Coach.

Last week we saw Georgia blow a 21 point lead to Tennessee, and lose their biggest weapon on offense in the process. It was a crushing blow for Georgia fans and their fate is likely sealed in the SEC East, and if Georgia doesn't turn things around in a hurry, Mark Richt could start feeling his seat get a little warmer. But in every loss, there is also a win. This was a huge win for Tennessee who had blown fourth quarter leads in all three of their losses this season. To make a big comeback to beat a division rival that had won the previous 5 matchups is a big boost of confidence.

Missouri also saw their struggles on offense continue against Florida, and with two conference losses, their fate is also likely sealed. Florida's defense dominated Missouri the entire game, like most every team has done to Missouri this season. Florida is going to need their smothering defense to come up huge the remainder of the season with their quarterback suspended.

It was a rather weak slate of games last week, so there's really not much else to talk about regarding the games, so let's move on to this week.


The Byes

Tennessee- They have a lot of momentum heading into their bye week. They'll need the rest, they get Bama next week.

Arkansas- They lead Bama for most of the game, but they let them pull away in the fourth quarter. Times are tough in Fayetteville, maybe they can regroup in their off week.


They're Mid Majors, But I Wouldn't Call Them Cupcakes


Ole Miss @ Memphis- Kind of odd for a contending SEC West team to go on the road to face a team from the American Conference, but Memphis and Oxford aren't too far away and I'm sure the Ole Miss faithful will travel. Memphis comes into this game undefeated, and a win here would likely make them the front runners to be the mid major to get a New Years day bowl game. What was originally scheduled as a cupcake will turn into a big game for Ole Miss. At the end of the day though, Memohis has struggled a bit on defense, and I don't think they have the talent to matchup with Ole Miss's wide receivers, and Ole Miss has the talent on defense to stop them. Final Score: Ole Miss 38-17

Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi State- While Louisiana Tech isn't a threat to play on New Years, they are a decent team, and one that can bite you if you take them lightly. Florida reject, Jeff Driskel is the quarterback for LA Tech, and I'm sure he'd love nothing more than to upset an SEC team. For the game, Miss State's defense should be too much for LA Tech to overcome, and Dak Prescott can pick apart a weak defense. Final Score: Mississippi State 34-21


Eh, At Least They're Conference Games


Auburn @ Kentucky- Thursday night special. Who would have thought that Kentucky would be a pretty decent favorite in this game? Auburn has gone into full free fall mode, they don't have a quarterback, their defense has been struggling, and they're going to have a tough time beating any decent team. Kentucky has played down to their competition a couple times this season, but they've managed a 4-1 record, and that 5 point loss to Florida doesn't look too bad right now. Much like any conference game Auburn is involved in this season, I look for them to struggle on offense and make the opposing defense look a lot better than they actually are, and I look for Patrick Towles and Stanley Williams to put up some big numbers against Auburn's defense. With the game in Lexington, this is my lock conference pick of the week. Final Score: Kentucky 28-10

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina- I won't lie, I probably won't be flipping over to this game at any point on Saturday. Both of these teams have looked pretty pathetic on offense, and South Carolina just had Steve Spurrier retire on them, and when you're forced to have an interim head coach coaching his first game, the results are rarely good, at least not immediately. South Carolina is coming off a beatdown at the hands of LSU in a game that was supposed to be a home game, but due to flooding, had to be played in Baton Rouge. Neither one of these teams will go bowling this season, but of the two, I have seem a vast improvement in Vanderbilt's defense this season, and really that's the only side of the ball for either team that looks to have any life. Webb is no Fournette, but I also think he'll get his against the Gamecock defense. Didn't think I would be predicting a road conference win for Vandy this season, but here I am. Final Score: Vanderbilt 24-14


Which Team Can Avoid a 3 Game Skid?


Missouri @ Georgia- Both of these teams are coming off of back to back losses, and both could really use a win just to get something going to salvage the season. Missouri has struggled on offense. Georgia has struggled with the passing game, and now they don't have Nick Chubb. During Missouri's stint in the SEC, they have faired better on the road than they have at home, and after last season's 34-0 home loss to Georgia, I'm sure they'll be looking for a little bit of redemption. Preseason, this looked like it could be a game to determine who would win the SEC East. Given what we have seen, this game is now just to try and turn a season around for both teams. Talent wise, Georgia is the better team, but I don't think that will really matter come Saturday. Georgia is coming off of a devastating loss in Knoxville where they blew a 21 point lead and the struggles at quarterback continued. I said last week that the outcome of the game with Tennessee would determine whether Georgia would bounce back or fall apart after the Bama beatdown, and that was before Chubb got hurt. Coming off of back to back crushing losses, losing their best player, I really don't see anything but a downward sprial for Georgia the rest of the season, and there's a good chance Mark Richt will be out of a job after they play Georgia Tech just to see which team will be bowl eligible. Final Score: Missouri 24-10

 

[Chewbaccer]

Co Game of the Week


Alabama @ Texas A&M- More than likely, the winner of this game will be in a fight with LSU for the top spot in the SEC West. Alabama comes in with one loss, but they have bounced back with a vengeance and they are playing great football. Their defense looks very solid, especially the front 7, the running game has been good as expected and Jake Coker seems to have found himself and has been playing great football the last few weeks. Texas A&M comes into this game with an undefeated mark, their defense looks to be much improved over last season, and Kyle Allen has a lot of weapons at his disposal. It has been the spread teams that have given Alabam the most trouble in recent years, and after the 59-0 beatdown Alabama gave A&M last year, I'm sure A&M would love the chance of ruining Alabama's championship run along with throwing themselves into contention. For Texas A&M, they will need to be able to move the ball against Bama's secondary, and they need to score TDs when they get to the redzone. Alabama has been susceptible to turnovers this season, and A&M needs to force a couple this week and not squander the opportunity. This looks to be the most complete team A&M has had since they joined the SEC, and a win over Bama this week would be the biggest win of their SEC lives so far.

For Bama, they need their front 7 to exploit A&M's offensive line and put pressure on Allen. I have no doubt Bama will shut down A&M's run game, but their front seven still needs to help out their still questionable secondary. On offense is should be business as usual for Bama. Pound the ball on the ground, make the throws when they need to and keep the chains moving. With the one loss on their record, if Alabama loses again, the season will be over for Bama who settles for nothing short of a national championship. They've been playing highly motivated football since the loss to Ole Miss, and I expect nothing less from them this week. It's tough to win on the road, but I don't think a Nick Saban lead team has ever been intimidated by an opposing team's stadium or fans.

For the game, I still have some questions about A&M's o-line, and I'm not convinced that they will be able to keep Bama's front 7 from wreaking havoc in the backfield. If Allen doesn't have time to throw, it'll be hard to exploit Bama's secondary and pull off the mild upset. I don't see Bama having a big game through the air, but I think Henry, Drake and Scarborough will ultimately prove to be too much for A&M's front 7 as the game wears on and Bama's big o-line wears down A&M's defensive line. It won't be a 59-0 blowout this year, but I do think Bama will come out on top and keep their title hopes alive. Final Score: Alabama 35-27


Game of the Week


Florida @ LSU- Battle of the unbeatens. A win for either team here puts them in the top 5 in the rankings and is a big boost of momentum going forward. This is week 7. Being undefeated means something at this stage of the season. Both of these teams are for real, and both are dreaming of championships. There probably couldn't have been worse time for Will Grier to get suspended for a year. A night game in Baton Rouge, or Death Valley as they call it is one of the toughest stages for a road team to play in at full capacity, let alone with your quarterback gone and a backup that hasn't proven he can pass against SEC defenses. For Florida, their run game is going to have to come up big in this one. If they can find a way to out rush LSU, their chances of success increase dramatically. They need to control time of possession, play strong defense like they have all year, and Treon Harris can't do anything to hurt the team. This won't be the first time this season that FLorida has been the underdog, but this is by far their biggest challenge of the season. If they can get through LSU at night in Baton Rouge without their quarterback, they will have no reason to fear any opponent remaining on their schedule, and that includes Florida State.

For LSU, they need to take advantage of the strong hand that has been dealt to them. They're facing a backup quarterback who has struggled in the passing game when he has been in the game. They need to make Treon Harris beat them through the air against their strong secondary. And they do have Leonard Fournette, the leading Heisman candidate at the moment. Use him. If Florida can't stop FOurnette, it will be a long night for the Gators and a huge night for the Bayou Bengals. But LSU can't take Florida lightly just because Grier is suspended. They're still gonna have to score against FLorida's strong defense, and stop Florida's run game.

For the game, I look for LSU to stack the box and shut down Florida's run game, and I don't think Treon Harris has the passing ability to take advantage of the man to man looks he'll be getting for his wide receivers. I look for Florida to slow FOurnette down in the first half, but as the game wears on, I see Fournette getting more and more traction and eventually getting 10 yards a pop. This is nighttime in Death Valley. Florida would have had their work cut out for them with an eligible Grier. With Treon Harris at quarterback in the most hostile environment in college football, it's just hard for me to see Florida being able to contain Fournette and being able to move the ball against a stacked box and a weak passing QB. It won't be a blowout, but I don't think LSU will ever be in jeopardy of losing the game. Final Score: LSU 31-24


The Next Best 3

UCLA @ Stanford- Another Thursday night special. An excellent Pac 12 matchup that I look forward to watching. Stanford has been rolling since their opening week loss to Northwestern. They have found their way on offense. Hogan seems to have found himself at QB as well. UCLA is coming off of a loss to Arizona State and a bye week. I think the bye week came at a perfect time for UCLA. I'm sure Mora has kept his team looking forward after an upset loss. I look for UCLA to come out firing on all cylinders, and while I think Stanford will hang with them, I think the more talented team in UCLA pulls through for the win. Final Score: UCLA 42-38

Iowa @ Northwestern- Iowa still being undefeated entering week 7 was something I didn't expect coming into the season, and Northwestern entering at 5-1 is a bit of a surprise as well. Northwestern is coming off of a shutout loss against Michigan and Iowa's defense has lead them to an undefeated mark. While Iowa isn't leading the country in style points, they are finding ways to win games, and at the end of the day that is most important. Northwestern's defense has been strong as well, but they have struggled on offense, and the blowout loss to Michigan last week was a big momentum killer. I like Iowa to remain unbeaten. Final Score: Iowa 20-17

Michigan State @ Michigan- Michigan State is still undefeated, but they have been struggling against some less than stellar competition lately and that 3 point home win against Oregon doesn't look so great at the moment either. Michigan's only loss was a road game in the opening week against an excellent Utah team. Since then, Harbaugh has his boys playing lights out. They're coming off of 3 straight shutout victories, and their defense as a whole has been phenomenal. Michigan still has some work to do on offense, but with their defense, they won't be out of any game this season. I look for Michigan to exploit Michigan State a bit this week. Michigan isn't Purdue or Rutgers and a subpar performance this week will spell doom for the Spartans. I look for Michigan's shutout streak to come to an end, but I think their defense is more than up for the task this week, and their offense should be able to put up some points on a mediocre looking MSU defense, and the game is in the Big House. Final Score: Michigan 31-17

 

[mutiger]

Mizzou can beat Georgia,not sure by that score

 

[Chewbaccer]

Mizzou can beat Georgia,not sure by that score

You're about to witness a team go into full free fall mode. I hate to say it, and I hope I'm wrong, but the writing is on the wall.

 

[Chewbaccer]

 

[TigerBait1971]

Good stuff. Hope that LSU game goes down that way.

 

[rmilia1]

Good read Chew. I have zero confidence in Iowa. NW traditionally destroys our good seasons

 

[Chewbaccer]

Good read Chew. I have zero confidence in Iowa. NW traditionally destroys our good seasons

We'll see. I just think it'll be tough to recover from a 38-0 beatdown just last week for Northwestern.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Nice picks

Mine would be

Ole Miss 41-34 over Memphis, I think Memphis will have some success on offense, assisted somewhat by turnovers, after all Florida put up 38 on Ole Miss, and their defense hasn't seemed as dominant as it was last year.

Louisiana Tech 27-24 over Mississippi State- Louisiana Tech came close to Kansas State but they pull it off here, Prescott is basically Mississippi State's whole team, Louisiana Tech takes advantage of his lack of weapons here.

At least they're conference games

Kentucky 28- 21 over Auburn- didn't think I'd be saying that LOL

Vanderbilt 30- 17 over South Carolina- South Carolina having offensive issues combined with a bad pass defense, ouch.

Who avoids the 3 game losing streak?

Georgia 10-6 over Missouri, Georgia's touchdown is set up by a Missouri turnover.

Alabama 38-27 over Texas A&M- Texas A&M's young team starts off hot but collapses late in the game.

Florida 27-21 over LSU- SI cover has me going Florida, LSU throws one pick 6

Next best 3:

Stanford 31-17 over UCLA- David Shaw has had Mora's number

Iowa 21-10 over Northwestern- fears of a late season Northwestern collapse exist.

Michigan 31-14 over Michigan State- it just seems like Michigan is going to destroy Michigan State, and Michigan State is on the verge of a late season skid

 

[Chewbaccer]

Nice picks

Mine would be

Ole Miss 41-34 over Memphis, I think Memphis will have some success on offense, assisted somewhat by turnovers, after all Florida put up 38 on Ole Miss, and their defense hasn't seemed as dominant as it was last year.

Louisiana Tech 27-24 over Mississippi State- Louisiana Tech came close to Kansas State but they pull it off here, Prescott is basically Mississippi State's whole team, Louisiana Tech takes advantage of his lack of weapons here.

At least they're conference games

Kentucky 28- 21 over Auburn- didn't think I'd be saying that LOL

Vanderbilt 30- 17 over South Carolina- South Carolina having offensive issues combined with a bad pass defense, ouch.

Who avoids the 3 game losing streak?

Georgia 10-6 over Missouri, Georgia's touchdown is set up by a Missouri turnover.

Alabama 38-27 over Texas A&M- Texas A&M's young team starts off hot but collapses late in the game.

Florida 27-21 over LSU- SI cover has me going Florida, LSU throws one pick 6

Next best 3:

Stanford 31-17 over UCLA- David Shaw has had Mora's number

Iowa 21-10 over Northwestern- fears of a late season Northwestern collapse exist.

Michigan 31-14 over Michigan State- it just seems like Michigan is going to destroy Michigan State, and Michigan State is on the verge of a late season skid

Not bad. But I do get the feeling if Georgia's TD will be set up by a turnover, Lambert will have to throw at least 1 pick 6. I just see us losing this week and the Florida game will be a dumpster fire.

 

[JuiceTheGator]

If LSU can score 31, they'll have it. That'll be impressive if they can.

 

[Rebel]

Nice picks

Mine would be

Ole Miss 41-34 over Memphis, I think Memphis will have some success on offense, assisted somewhat by turnovers, after all Florida put up 38 on Ole Miss, and their defense hasn't seemed as dominant as it was last year.

Louisiana Tech 27-24 over Mississippi State- Louisiana Tech came close to Kansas State but they pull it off here, Prescott is basically Mississippi State's whole team, Louisiana Tech takes advantage of his lack of weapons here.

At least they're conference games

Kentucky 28- 21 over Auburn- didn't think I'd be saying that LOL

Vanderbilt 30- 17 over South Carolina- South Carolina having offensive issues combined with a bad pass defense, ouch.

Who avoids the 3 game losing streak?

Georgia 10-6 over Missouri, Georgia's touchdown is set up by a Missouri turnover.

Alabama 38-27 over Texas A&M- Texas A&M's young team starts off hot but collapses late in the game.

Florida 27-21 over LSU- SI cover has me going Florida, LSU throws one pick 6

Next best 3:

Stanford 31-17 over UCLA- David Shaw has had Mora's number

Iowa 21-10 over Northwestern- fears of a late season Northwestern collapse exist.

Michigan 31-14 over Michigan State- it just seems like Michigan is going to destroy Michigan State, and Michigan State is on the verge of a late season skid

Although I don't think ms state loses it would be pretty awesome if they did. Everything else is on point.
Edit: I think LSU beats Florida. Everything else though.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Although I don't think ms state loses it would be pretty awesome if they did. Everything else is on point.
Edit: I think LSU beats Florida. Everything else though.

I think MS State is a better team than KS State. LA Tech might keep it close, but I can't see them winning.

 

[BoiseMike19]

Chewy, again great work!

 

[handicappers]

The smart money is on Kentucky AGS

 

[nddulac]

The smart money is on Kentucky AGS

That's impossible. I know this because that's what I bet.

 

[ktg8trgrl]

Good stuff. Hope that LSU game goes down that way.

 

[Chewbaccer]

The smart money is on Kentucky AGS

Got my bet in last night.

 

[TigerBait1971]

I like tittays, but UF needs to go down...

 

[7Samurai13]

Missouri found a QB?