Sabermetric Matt Cain deiscussion

[calsnowskier]

This is a GREAT blog that I check daily. This discussion specifically is a bit too sabermetric for my tastes personally, but it is an interesting follow...

When the Giants Come to Town...: Fantasy Focus: Ranking Matt Cain

Enjoy

 

[SFGRTB]

Gross should be friends with Tito, if he isn't Tito already.

 

[calsnowskier]

He backs up his argument with numbers, so I can't hate on the guy. I (we) may have a different conclusion, but he is allowed to have his as well.

 

[Heathbar012]

The reason Gross hates Matt Cain is because he is a fantasy nut, and for Cain's entire career he has put up numbers that warrant drafting him somewhat high for a pitcher on a team with no offense. Then, when Cainer doesn't get wins after a great outing, all of the fantasy baseball "gurus" curse their respective gods for their misfortune. Being Giants fans, we know this happened at least five times a year for the last three years. Also, being Giants fans, we know it will happen far less with their current line-up and in the future (especially if Boch decides to continue with the R-L-R rotation that places Cain against a team's third and fourth best pitchers more often than their best and second best). Gross will grow to hate Cain even more when he passes him up in the fifth round of his fantasy draft for Ricky Nolasco.

 

[tzill]

The "Cain dilemma" has been discussed a bit at Fangraphs. The consensus is that while xFIP and ERA tend to track each other nicely (i.e. if a pitcher under or over performs with his ERA he tends to go the other way the following year) there are a couple of pitchers who consistently deviate. Matt Cain is the classic example. Gross is a stathead and hates it when xFIP doesn't expain something.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm far from an expert in sabermetrics, but perhaps these outliers/divergences you see in Matt's numbers are why many (less knowledgeable) fans can't get comfortable with the idea of Cain as an elite pitcher. A guy like Tito, or even sane fans, can't articulate why they have that gut instinct, but something about him doesn't 'feel' elite.

Just riffing here...I think Cain is basically the prototype for the perfect #2 pitcher.