Rockies Woes

[ColinCoby]

Colorado up 7-1 today, and lost to the Pads 9-7.

Rocks win yesterday, but De La Rosa gives up 5 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks.

On Thursday, Jimenez went 3 2/3 and gave up 5 ER and walked 6.




Perhaps all this talk about the Rocks running away with the west is, I don't know, a bit premature?

 

[ColinCoby]

From ESPN's Dave Cameron:

A lot of things have gone wrong for the Colorado Rockies in April. For instance:



• Carlos Gonzalez, who led all National League center fielders with 6.1 Wins Above Replacement last year, has hit just .214/.269/.286 and has actually been below-replacement level so far in 2011.



• Ubaldo Jimenez's velocity has been down compared to last year, and he's managed only 16 innings in three starts, giving up 13 runs in the process. It took him 14 starts in 2010 to give up that many runs.



• Starting third baseman Ian Stewart hit so poorly in his first 12 games that the team optioned him to Triple-A, and offseason acquisition Jose Lopez -- theoretically brought in to give them depth at second and third base -- has a .169 on-base percentage.



Not only have the Rockies survived despite tremendous struggles from key players, but they actually own baseball's best record, having won 16 of their first 23 contests. In fact, their early season success has given them a 4½-game lead over both the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. It's not even May, but the National League West race is shaping up to be fairly boring.


It's too early to say for certain that any team has a division title wrapped up. Troy Tulowitzki could break his leg tomorrow and the entire division could change in an instant, and that is just one possible option out of a myriad of other unpredictable events that could significantly alter the landscape. However, given the Rockies' talent level and their newfound cushion, it might take an event of that magnitude to give the Giants a chance to defend their title.

In the baseball preview issue for ESPN The Magazine, the ZIPS projection system listed the Giants as the favorites to win the NL West with an 88-74 record, two games ahead of the 86-76 Rockies. However, the results of the first month of the season change the projected winner, even if we don't adjust our expectations for how the two teams will play the rest of the year.



Colorado was projected to win 53 percent of its contests before the season started. With 139 games remaining, even using that same estimate, the Rockies would be expected to win another 74 games. Add in the 16 they have already won, and their new projected record would be 90-72.



Running through the same exercise for the Giants, who have 148 games remaining and were expected to win 54 percent of their contests, we see that the Giants are projected to accumulate another 75 wins before the season ends. However, they've only won 12 games to date, so their updated expected record is 87-75, leaving them three games behind the Rockies.



While it might not sound like a big hill to overcome, three wins is a pretty significant margin -- that is essentially equal to the bump the Giants got last year by replacing Bengie Molina with Buster Posey. This year, the Giants don't have any prospects of Posey's caliber on the verge of filling a big hole on the roster come June, and even the best trade-deadline acquisitions only add a win or two to their new teams down the stretch.



There are certainly players on the Giants' roster who can be expected to perform better than they have in April, but we're already accounting for most of that by using the preseason ZIPS projections -- those numbers include the expectation of better future performances from the likes of Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Madison Bumgarner. The Giants need those things to happen just to get back on track to an 87-win season, and would need help above and beyond simple improvement from slumping regulars to climb out of the hole they now find themselves in. Pablo Sandoval continuing to hit well would certainly help close the gap, but we can't assume that underachievers will improve while overachievers like Kung Fu Panda will sustain their current levels.



And remember, this three-win gap is based on the assumption that the Giants are still a better team than the Rockies, and that the results of April haven't affected our outlook of how good either team actually is. In reality, we can't overlook the most recent data, even if it is only from two dozen games. The fact that the Rockies have a 22-run advantage in run differential -- nearly one for each game the two teams have played -- has to narrow the preseason estimate of the Giants being a better team to begin with. That the Rockies could rack up so many wins while so many key players are struggling speaks well of the talent in that organization, and at this point, projecting them to only win 53 percent of their remaining games seems overly conservative.



In reality, the Giants probably need to win 93 games to give themselves a fighting chance of beating out the Rockies to win the National League West. That requires them to win 81 of their final 138 games, reeling off victories at a .586 clip over the remaining five months of the season. Last year, only one team in baseball -- the Philadelphia Phillies -- won 81 of its 138 games. This Giants squad is going to have to spend the next five months playing like the best team in baseball or else they'll find themselves fighting for the wild card in an effort to defend their championship in October.

 

[SFGRTB]

And as of this day, the Giants are in sole posession of 1st place, go figure.

 

[msgkings322]

Such a BS article. Since the Giants have a better record than the Rockies right now, the Rox have to do EVEN BETTER THAN .586 to get to that magic 92 win # they project.

The ROCKIES squad is going to have to play like the best team in baseball the last 5 months to make their projection.

Total bullshit.

 

[SFAnthem]

nothing new to add - just that I hope this becomes a very long thread this year.

 

[ColinCoby]

Such a BS article. Since the Giants have a better record than the Rockies right now, the Rox have to do EVEN BETTER THAN .586 to get to that magic 92 win # they project.

The ROCKIES squad is going to have to play like the best team in baseball the last 5 months to make their projection.

Total bullshit.

Total bullshit indeed.

To be fair, it was written on April 29. It just goes to show you how stupid it is to make rigid predictions about a 162 game season in late April!

Based on how the Rocks have looked over the last two weeks, you'd think they have no chance. But one would have to be a Marcus-like idiot to pronounce that they were done.

 

[nateistheshi]

From ESPN's Dave Cameron:

Well Dave Cameron can eat a dick because he was wrong about the Giants last year and he'll be wrong this year.