Reds To Sign Jeff Francis, Thomas Neal

[JohnU]

I keep hearing that AC needs to develop a third pitch -- he's been in the organization 4 years. Why hasn't he learned a third pitch? Because he didn't NEED to. Pretending he doesn't ever have to learn one and keeping him in the back of the pen -- really reduces his value at FA time. He will always be a 2-pitch pitcher who throws 100 mph because, apparently, that's what the front office believes.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I've see two interviews with Bryan Price in which he states Chapman's "temperament" is best suited to remain a closer. Since I don't know Chapman personally, or professionally I'll have to take Price at his word.

Temperament is obliviously important to the success, or therefore lack of success of a pitcher. But, young pitcher's temperament often improve with experience. To never test Chapman's ability to be a SP is to really never have tested his temperament.

When trying to project metric's translation from closer to SP, the two pitchers that come to mind for me are John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley. Both were 20 game winners as well as a successful closer with over 40 saves. Looking at such players the conversion for K/9 metrics and such as a starter is between 20- 35% less with power pitchers dropping less than finesse pitchers. The biggest culprit in SP's metrics dropping is due to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th PA factor that swing the advantage towards the batter.

Chapman's K/9 in Cuban baseball was 10.02, as a SP at AAA Louisville it was 10.3, and in Spring Training starts it was 8.6. IMO, a fair projection would be for Chapman to have a K/9 of between 10-11. Only 9 pitchers in MLB history have exceeded 11 K/9 for a season with some of the nine doing it multiple times.

 

[JohnU]

I think I get it about temperament with a pitcher who tends to thrive under intense adrenaline rushes. A starting pitcher needs to learn when to NOT put it all on the line. Conversely, I think a starting pitcher who has learned to mellow could crank it up a notch -- they often do in situations where they need to get people out in the 4th inning.

Chappy would obviously need to learn to modify his approach but as some of us have pointed out, that could have been happening all along instead of suddenly realizing it could have been happening all along.

It's not like this talent just fell off the back of a sugar cane wagon.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I've heard at least 5 excuses from the Reds why Chapman couldn't do something, and I've seen absolutely no evidence any were true. So, I don't buy this either. Politics has no business in baseball, IMO...the team best suited to win should be the team we see. Roles are important, but the guy that makes out the lineup card can limit opportunity.

Chapman has a better 1st, 2nd and 3rd pitch than Tony Cingrani. No one is saying Cingrani needs to be a reliever. If temperament was a requirement, why is Homer still here ? Bob Gibson wasn't exactly exuding patience, but he's a Famer. Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining, on a clear day. Homer and Chapman both filed arbitration numbers yesterday. Homer filed for $11.6 M, and Chapman $5.4M. You tell me if a SP or a closer is worth more...and why Chapman isn't in the rotation.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Meanwhile, back to the post-Jeff Francis signed a minors deal AGAIN with the Reds...meaning no one else had a better offer. Hmmmm.

On another level, last off season Ryan Ludwick filed for free agency, and came back to the Reds for a 2 year plus option year contract worth about $14M without the option year included, following a 1 year, $3M deal. Think the Reds outbid other teams to get Ludwick back ? Only if there were other offers-and my guess is they would have been in the $5M /yr range. Hell, Drew Stubbs just signed with the Rockies for $4.1M. He might actually hit 18HR in Coors, to go with his .229 BA. There is just too much money veins paid to guys that should be making under $500K. IMO, if the structure was that way, they wouldn't be trying to sign partial season role players to 2 year deals, and players like Bailey and Chapman could be offered a better long term deal and avoid the arbitration mess. Jeff Francis is a good example that most players aren't going to pass up a six figure income in baseball if its all they can get. Ryan Ludwick woyld have signed again for $5M...the other $9M was just stupidity.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds thinking at the time on Ludwick was that they could put to rest the ongoing carousel of left fielders ... then Luddy went and fucked up his shoulder in the first inning. So we were back to letting the first guy up the dugout steps play left field -- again.

So far, I haven't seen that problem addressed sufficiently, considering left field is the one place on the field that almost anybody with a bat can play.

Filling up the Lousyville roster seems to be a priority and all it's done, IMO, is plug up the system like a case of constipation. I like Corky Miller as a role model and image, but why in FUCK is he getting PT when Barnhart and a few other kids could be learning? Why are our best players stuck in Bakersfield because the Bats have Jeff Francis and Hobie Landreth on the roster?

St. Louis gets its players ready to perform at the top level. Cincy seems content to make sure they've mastered the last level before moving to the next level. Usually by that time, they're 26, on the last year of their contract and aren't considered useful anymore.

They end up like Juan Duran, all potatoes and no meat.

This has been my main gripe with the Reds organization. Mismanaging a farm system and complaining they can't afford to sign top players. Hell, the good ones rotted on the vine.

And yeah, it's ongoing -- Billy Hamilton probably "isn't ready" yet -- even though he's been in pro baseball since 2009. Does another year in the minors really make sense?

 

[Redsfan1507]

That's part of my problem with signing has been LF for the kind of money Ludwick is getting this year. $9M guarantees he will block any minor league player from winning that job. Managers get fired for not playing $9M salaries unless they're on the DL. If there were a MLB minimum salaried player in CF(Hamilton), then maybe the $9M added to Choo's $8M he earned last year, would be a wash, and Choo would be in LF for the next 4-5 years. I like Hamilton-Choo prospects better than Hamilton-Ludwick for sure. I think it's hard to criticize opportunity cost of a $3M player, but paying a $3M player $9M, and letting All-Stars go for that difference in salary I have a problem with. It IS a way to accommodate others salary increases, but I just can't justify overpaying for a 35 year old Ludwick that isn't likely to hit for the $9M value. I'd rather let him go, pay the difference to a proven commodity that is 5 years younger, and then the "gamble" would be on a youngster at MLB minimum salary. In other words, I not only think Choo at $16M is a better value than Ludwick at $9M, I think Hamilton at $450K is too. Ludwick was a good gamble 2 years ago for $3M, but he's a lousy one now at $9M, IMO. It's a mistake.

 

[chico ruiz]

that is absolutely correct 1507. in fact, i believe the reds outfield, with the exception of jay bruce, is one great big huge question mark. i think there is a good chance chris heisey will be a better option overall than ludwick in left field. and here's the sad reality; no other particularly major-league-ready outfield options exist within the organization. the more i look at the reds roster, and the more i consider walt's moves in the last 3 years, the more i believe he already has hamstrung this organization. i remain hopeful that ludwick can put up numbers that, at least, approach 2012's. in addition, the overall payroll, is overly bullpen heavy. marshall and broxton specifically. is broxton even going to pitch this year? his contract still baffles me. the broxton story is a very concise cautionary tale on over paying / extending for relief help. jonathan broxton, signed for three years and $21 million before the 2013 season, and is projected by ZiPS to be outperformed — both overall and on a rate basis — by manny parra, who was signed that same offseason for just $1 million. even if you take the chapman (as starter) out of the equation it was a very risky signing. now the 2013 reds are on the hook at roughly 20 million dollars for ludwick and broxton. and this was done knowing what players were going to be arbitration eligible, and what they would cost. also, there was, is, and will continue to be, many other options in free agency that are more cost effective. if i were jocketty, i would be embarrassed. i haven't forgotten the ryan madson debacle either walt. i don't really see a cohesive long term plan at all.

 

[JohnU]

I suppose the argument could be made that gambling on Broxton and Ludwick would look good ...

IF ...

they hadn't gotten hurt.

The other side of that is to be too cautious and end up with a lot of guys like Kurt Partch and Donald Lutz on the roster.

Dunno ... hindsight is pretty clear. I was excited that the Reds were able to sign Broxton, the size of the contract notwithstanding. It's all money to me now, but if the guy can't pitch, doesn't make any difference at all.

I was never high on the Ludwick contract but I am cautiously optimistic again on his ability to resemble a decent hitter. At this point, our options are named Skippy Schumaker and Chris Heisey.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think the plan was for Chapman to start, Broxton to close, and Choo and Arroyo were going to take the Teds to a Series before they bailed, while Hamilton and Cingrani matured. Dusty didnt comply, Broxton got hurt, Ludwick and Cueto ditto. Plan B is what you see.