Reds Predictions for 2015

[kylezengel]

The offseason has been pessimistic so far, and I will admit I've certainly added to that pessimism. I just don't see this team having enough pitching power to even compete for the Wild Card. The only thing that kept the Reds competitive the last few years has been their pitching, and with the trades there will certainly be a drop in pitching performance. It's not like with the pitching diminishing the Reds increased their offensive power. At absolute best, the offense could have similar numbers to 2013 (if Votto and Bruce can perform their best). Main thing to look for early on this season: pitching. That will be the true indicator of whether this team can compete.

What's your guys' prediction?

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds have enough to make a run at it but not enough to close the deal.
Anybody who thinks this outfit is going to beef up its offense ... well, yeah ... it could if Votto and Bruce actually contribute. Odds are, they will.
Pitchers are in a league where ** hitting anemia** is a sabremetric statistic, a staff full of Mike Leakes can get ERAs under 4.
It's a bitch trying to win games 3-1.
I think the one part of the Reds game that gets overplayed and misunderstood because they keep yabbering it over and over again is that GABP is a **hitter's** park. It's a HOME RUN BALLPARK, and pitchers who don't throw fly balls turn it into a regular ballpark. But we keep getting sold a bill of goods that the ballpark will turn bad hitters into good hitters. Actually, Williamsport wouldn't help some of the guys who try to hit for the Reds.

 

[redsfan03]

^That's a good point. There isn't a whole lot of room in GABP to get any other hit besides a home run. I think that has influenced the Reds' "swing for the fences" philosophy that can be so frustrating at times.

I think the Reds have enough to maybe make a run for the Wild Card. It certainly won't be easy, as the NL Central looks to be one of the best divisions in baseball. The Cubs have improved (though predictions of a playoff run are hyperbole, imo) and, of course, the Cardinals and Pirates remain solid playoff contenders. The Reds will need to have better production from Bruce and Votto, which doesn't seem like a tall order considering their 2014 numbers. Good thing is, the offense couldn't get much worse than last year. Likewise, the bullpen couldn't get much worse than it was last year. Those look to be two areas that will improve for the 2015 Reds. The rotation could be a bit of an adventure. Bailey will have to prove that he's worth his contract, likely filling Latos' number two spot. Leake is pretty dependable as a number three. Numbers four and five are big question marks, and ultimately the Reds' success is likely tied to how well whoever those two end up being perform.

I'm not setting my expectations very high because the odds are stacked heavily against the Reds this year. All I ask is that they put in the effort. Select players seemed to quit on the team last year, and I as a fan have a hard time stomaching that. I can only imagine how the players who went 100% every game felt. It's a grind, no doubt, but that's why they make the big bucks.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think there are a lot of misconceptions.

The Brewers pitching and defense is a myth. So is Ryan Braun htting .330 /40 HR, at least, not without a steady diet of HGH and anti-semites losing custody of his pristine sample. They are my pre-ST pick to finish 4th this year.

Speaking of a myth, the Cubs signing a guy they already had (Hamels), Jon Lester, and a catcher, is not enough to make them likely to win 95 games. They have some prospects like Soler and Baez, that honestly are more likely to produce like former "next big things" named Bogaarts and Profar than Mike Trout. Anthony Rizzo is no more than Jay Bruce with a chip on his shoulder. Starlin Castro is a horrible shortstop, with 50 game bouts of who gives a shit, and all the HR power of Brandon Phillips. Joe Maddon is a offbeat manager that has had the good fortune to work for an underpaid and under attended franchise who were never expected to win, with a very talented young pitching corps in a pitchers park, where hitting a low OBP and lower BA player like Carlos Pena leadoff was viewed as innovative rather than what it really was- desperation. The Cubs may be improving, but 3 hitters, 3 pitchers and 3 pints of Old Style doesn't make a pennant winner no matter who's making out the lineup card. Just saying, when you haven't seen a good team in 3 decades, this one might look like one to Cubbie fans. I'm not buying yet- I think they still finsh last even, though Lester wins 15 games.

The Pirates, are very similar to the Reds with a couple exceptions. They only have one really expensive player, and he plays every day. They always try to have a lefty starting pitcher, instead of always trying not to. They also have a manager that isn't afraid to ask his platoon 7 hitter to sac a leadoff double over in a tie game. They are one injury from 4th place, or a couple career years from winning the division. I think they are the wild-Card winner and 2nd place NLC team.

Our Reds, if healthy, can put 5-6 potential or realized All-Star caliber players in the lineup. They play as good on defense as any team in recent memory. They have an elite base stealer and 6 hitters that could hit 20+ HR. They also are at least 2 SP short of a full rotation, and the best lefty arm in two decades is dependent on a lead in the 9th inning to get an appearance. Regrettfully- I'm guessing 3rd place- due to dismantling the rotation and the stark stupidity of Chapman not being a member of it.

The Cardinals, are always most likely to win the NLC, because quite frankly, they spend their $120 Million as good as anyone in MLB, and have a farm system that isn't dependent on trading their #2 SP every few years to re-stock.

 

[JohnU]

Cubs secret ingredient might be their manager. I think Theostein has done what he needed to do ... not sign managers to run a team that couldn't win. So 1-year babysitting deals worked great for the Cubbos. They have worse ballpark issues than the Reds do. In Wiggly, you can't put together a team that fits the ballpark. Years back, before the Republicans turned the fans on, the wind was always blowing out at Clark and Addison. Now it doesn't, and the fans pay for it because the babes have to wear sweatshirts now.

 

[WvuDieHard]

The Reds have failed again in the off season. Whether it was salary cap, lack of candidates at a reasonable price, or just too stubborn to unload some dead weight--I am not sure why the Reds didn't significantly improve themselves. I will say this--Jocketty has not impressed me in his tenure here. Losing Simon and Latos for what we got---was a total loser deal. So really this team is weaker today than it was 5 months ago when it nose dived into the final games of the season. I expect the same kind of season. Another 75-87 season filled with hope and promise to only be disappointed by the likes of Bruce and Cozart. We keep waiting on these 2 to get their act together while we have losing season after losing season.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Actually, haven't had a LOT of losing seasons the past few years...unfortunately, those 3 barely post season years should have been a handful of wins per year deeper than they performed to. The Choo-Latos-Marshall year wasn't a post season suggestion, it was an urgent mandate to do more than find ways to lose 3 at home in the first series. Someone didn't get the memo. There were bad decisions made on and off the field.

No team is static- you're either getting better or worse. Anyone that thinks that losing Latos and Simon isn't making the team worse, at least in the near term, isn't paying attention, espeically if you add Cueto to the lost list in 6 months.. I believe there may be a marginal improvement with Byrd over Ludwick, and Suarez over Santiago, but that isn't going to be what takes the Reds to the Series.... Here's an obvious statement: the Reds (like last year) are going to win or lose on the backs of the highest paid guys on the team: Votto, Bailey, Bruce, Phillips, Cueto. BTW- If I'm not mistaken, Ken Griffey, Jr. may be the 10-12th highest paid Red this year, and he watched about as many games from home in Florida as Joey Votto last summer. THAT is the real problem.

I assume Votto, Bruce, Phillips, Chapman, Latos, Ludwick and Schumaker didn't all get injured together by a conscious decision....BUT-In an age where the best closers blow 3 saves and the worst blow 9, and they both only win 5 a year, I think it's criminal to DECIDE not to put Aroldis Chapman in the starting rotation. Jocketty isn't making that call....he's always been the guy that wanted him to start. It's even more laughable a decision if the alternative Reds SP is tossing an 88 mph fastball and the Reds are hitting .238.....so I don't get that decision, whoever is making it-if that was Dusty before, it sure wasn't last year.

They killed 21 runners at home last year. Anyone that does that is under some kind of mistaken assumption, or has consistently bad judgement....So, they fired the 3b coach...again. The new hitting coach...saw BIG improvements in Frazier and Mesoraco, and the worst career seasons from Bruce and Votto and Cozart....so I'd say the dugout staff contribution was a mixed bag...sure didn't help win the division, but with a few more high paid guys not on the DL, might have looked different. Desperation does lend to worse decisions.


So, I question a lot of decisions with the Reds. The front office, the Med staff, the farm system, the manager, the coaches and yes, the players. I have a lot more faith in Joey Votto's knee than his toughness. I'm convinced that Jay Bruce is visually or intellectually challenged, or both, for swinging and missing by the distance he did so consistently last year- I'm also amazed the opposition played a shift on him- he strikes out on balls outside the zone on both sides of the plate equally often. Have you ever listened to Brandon Phillips playing Dat Dude BP ? No wonder no one wants him in trade. I believe Billy Hamilton really is the kind of person that Brandon Phillips wants to convince people to believe he is. I believe Todd Frazier's desire far exceeds his talent, and that is a compliment...because unless I'm sadly mistaken, he and Devin Mesoraco are the only guys remotely resembling leaders on this roster.

IMO, Bryan Price needs to stop convincing people how intelligent he is, and start taking control of a team that appears to not know losing two dozen 1 run games isn't a random accident. Anyone as intelligent as Price is, has to know this...but he obviously has trouble translating it, or the roster he's talking to doesn't speak the same language.

If you compare player by player, the Reds and Cardinals are very close. I'd take Votto over Adams, still take Phillips over Wong, and even Frazier over Carpenter. I like Hamilton more than Jay/Bougois, Bruce and Heyward are uncomfortably similar, and although Yadier edges Mesoraco, time may be on Meso's side...past career aside, last year Byrd and Holiday were very similar stats, Peralta hits more than Cozart, but has the range of a fire hydrant at SS. Cueto/Wainwright is a toss up. Lynn/Bailey...Chapman/Rosenthal, Leake/Garcia....ditto. The Cards middle bullpen is better.

So what makes the Cardinals 10-12 wins better ? That's an important question to answer. I think the answer is, if the Reds are healthy, they aren't 10-12 games better- talent wise, anyway.

 

[JohnU]

I was very disappointed in how the team was managed/coached in 2014. I was happy to see some of that addressed in the off-season with the 3B coach getting the ax. I just wondered why Price decided to scrap the whole season with that idiot ...

Bruce said at mid-season he was disappointed in his play, decided to wait till the off-season to deal with it.

Hamilton was told to work on the bunting in the off-season.

Everyone else was told to heal in the off-season.

In the off-season, the Reds would deal with their problems.

The off-season.

What the hell was wrong with dealing with the problems in the ON-season?

 

[Redsfan1507]

I think when Votto took the dive, everyone else followed. There was just no way to survive with Frazier as the only everyday player making a daily offensive contribution. They sat Mesoraco every other day, and Hamilton only hit .250. Phillips was out half a season, Bruce played through his injury but in a lineup without teeth, he was easy prey outside the strikezone. Ludwick and Cozart were a zero at the plate. It didnt help that they were without Latos and Bailey for a while, and Broxton was traded. This was the weakest team the Reds have had since Dusty's first season.

To be honest, I'm sure if Dusty was still managing, Hamilton wouldn't have been the impact he was, and Frazier wouldn't have stolen 20. It's conjecture, but I though the Reds confused aggressiveness on the bases with recklessness way too often, but much of that might have been desperation with 5 holes in the daily lineup.

The Reds have to get 500 at bats from Votto, Phillips, Frazier, Bruce, Hamilton and someone with .260/20/70 stats in LF just to compete, and somehow, they need about 450 at bats from Mesoraco to contend, IMO. If they get that, Cozart can just play SS. No ones bench can pick up enough slack if 3-4 of those key 7 aren't contributing their normal pace.

...and the starting rotation just subtracted 2 members. Trying to fill 2 (or 3 if Bailey isn't healed) SP spots isn't normally a good thing. The bullpen needs 3 better performers than last year.

GABP is a hitters park...and the factors above concern me due to that fact.

We all hope for better fundamentals- productive outs, improved OBP, better baserunning, more contact at the plate, etc. but it's moot point if they have too many bench types getting in 100 games. You just can't coach Hannahan into being Votto.

 

[JohnU]

The best part of all that is that it was pretty easy to identify the problems, which is different from just losing because of "bad breaks" here and there. Can't avoid all injuries but improving general performance is a matter of a dugout staff sticking to it.

Most teams are a thin line away from being 90-72 or 81-81 or 76-86. Over 26 weeks, you only need to win one or two more games a month to be in contention.

 

[Redsfan1507]

All true John. I think the NLC has tightened some- still think the Cards have the best hand, but the rest are 75-90 wins depending on ....lots of players with questions. I think the more major moves of the last few years for the Reds might have fooled people into believing they're going to make those moves every year- to the contrary, I think the Reds blew those efforts to "win now" already. I think now, they have to win with what they have left, and what they can add a little piece at a time. A Byrd here and a farmhand there. A lot of dollars tied up in long term deals already.

 

[JohnU]

St Louis, LA and SF will be in the top 5 every year until we croak. Everybody else will walk in the room, look around, and leave ... what a team like Cincy needs is to catch lightning bugs in a jar once every 20 years ... maybe like the '90 W.S. team did. I've seen the best ... and the worst. I will settle for competitive. Last year was more of an insult than a disappointment.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It's cyclic to a degree. I remember the Cards when they struggled for a (brief) time. Dunno the population difference in St.Lou & Cincinnati, but they sure seem to have more cash to toss around in St.L. I think that makes a difference- not always- look at the Yankees now. Ownership priorities count too. Look at the Cubs- they've made a lot of money losing their ass off.

I think some of the Castellini mission to "win now" has fallen back to budget realities after a few large/drunken contracts and subsequent blown opportunities. The color on the wall is more than how you shake the paint- what's in the paint and the skill of the painter is a part if it too. You can't hide the holes in the wall with just paint either. Requires fixing the hole first. We miss that here sometimes.

 

[JohnU]

The trick is to obtain, retain and sustain ... the worst thing is to drift back into sub-.500 seasons so that it takes 3 years to get back to average. The 2014 debacle did not have to happen, even with the injuries, which became a cause for effect even without any real bearing on reality. There was no real sensible attempt to endure, but rather just a 'well, we'll be OK when these guys get back.' It was just poor management.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Vegas has Reds over/under wins at 77- last in the NLC. I'd bet on the over. By how much, is anyone's guess.

I do believe the only NLC team over 90 wins is the Cardinals. Most prognosticators have the Pirates next, but any pitching staff bolstered by Liriano and Burnett looks shaky to me.
The Brewers pitching staff is likely worse than that without a closer or any front line SP of note. The Cubs have 3 respectable SP, like the Reds. I'm not convinced the Cubs can hit yet, especially because they have to have 3-4 youngsters all click at the same time...not likely.

There may not be much difference between the 4 non-Cardinal teams this year, IMO. I think all of them fall between 75-85 wins, depending mostly on injuries and success or failure outside the division. If the Reds are healthy, and keep Cueto, I have a real hard time believing they are a sub-.500 team. If they are as injured as last year, and dump Cueto early, I could see this being a 90 loss team, too.

 

[JohnU]

From 77 to 87 is about 1 win more a month (6 you win, 6 you didn't lose) ... but the schedule could matter. The Reds play the AL-C this year -- WSox, Tigers, Royals, etc ... which is probably a bit easier than last year, when they were something like 2-12.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Last years injury epidemic has me without a clue on this years prognosis. 10 wins or losses on the year could easily be the difference in post season and finishing last in the NLC. Both those are possibilities depending on the Reds health.

Lots of teams made moves, but not sure any of them other than the Padres and Marlins improved their standings overall. The Nats added Scherzer, which improved them in a weaker NLE, but didnt change their projected finish (1st). The Dodgers dumped some future salary, but still are paying about $30M this year to other teams to take those players, and are a couple bats weaker, and have a 39 year old SS now. The Giants and Braves didnt improve. Neither did the Tigers or Angels, but they might not have to...The Redsox added bats but don't have much pitching. The A's did a whole scale shuffle but Beane has had remarkable success playing at least .500 with a similar team of unknowns. The Orioles lost Cruz and didnt add pitching. The Yankees, Rockies, Twins, Rangers, Rays, D-Backs, Astros and Phillies are abysmal, and did little to address it. The Royals got weaker. I think an offseason like this one might allow a few under the radar teams to sneak up- Indians, Whitesox, Mariners, etc.

In the NLC, Cub optimism is higher, but they aren't more than a couple players better than last year. I don't think the Brewers are close to competitive. If Wacha comes back, St.Louis got better than they need to be to win the division again. I think the Pirates are as shaky as the Reds. Competitive is a relative term- not many obvious 95 win teams- but a lot of could be 85 win teams.

 

[JohnU]

Sometimes it isn't the number of injuries but the people who get hurt and the timing of that.
In the Reds case, the problem was the lineup usually just made no sense. In an era where every hitter, every at-bat, every pitch is on a metrics chart, having a mish-mash batting order is murder. When Brayan Pena is hitting 2nd in the order behind a kid who is expected to steal first base, and come home on a 12-hopper ... that's a recipe for 3.8 runs a game.

Which gets you 76 wins.

Against teams in your own division, what you do not want is to have 3 starters either on the shelf or day-to-day. You do not want Mesoraco on the DL when you are facing a series of games against teams that have strong lefty starters.

I guess a lot of the totality of the numbers is just ... how do you win the inning. Over 162, it doesn't matter much but if you win 4 games out of 6 at home instead of 3, it counts. If you only win 2 out of 6, you just lost a homestand. There are only about 14-15 homestands. You gotta win most of them.

A lineup like Price had most of the year was for a team with record of 56-106. We probably got lucky.