Random Thoughts 2.1

[Lake Shore Drive]

who did we trade way too fast?

Technically not correct, but we are definitely in agreement about the trade. I was a fan of Semien when he was with the Pale Hose. At the time he was kind of a platooner, mostly manning 2nd base. He didn't hit for avg and his D was less than average. But he had some pop in that stick. Now I'm not gonna lie and say I knew he'd go on to have the kind of career he's had to this point. But that's irrelevant. The fact is he'd be a tremendous addition to any ballclub that signs him in the offseason.

 

[idseer]

Technically not correct, but we are definitely in agreement about the trade. I was a fan of Semien when he was with the Pale Hose. At the time he was kind of a platooner, mostly manning 2nd base. He didn't hit for avg and his D was less than average. But he had some pop in that stick. Now I'm not gonna lie and say I knew he'd go on to have the kind of career he's had to this point. But that's irrelevant. The fact is he'd be a tremendous addition to any ballclub that signs him in the offseason.

i also remember the trade, and i agree he didn't look to become what he's become. but i felt about him the same way i felt about madrigal. the same way i feel about kopech, vaughn, jimenez and engel. i just want them to be sox for a long time! even if they aren't great, doesn't matter. going way back, the same way i felt about norm cash and earl battey.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Fascinating that the only races to keep an eye on in the AL are the battles for the two WC spots.

Yet in the NL, the WC spots are already set, so what remains in play is which teams win their respective divisions. Only the NL Central is decided.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Pretty much starting tomorrow, there are some excellent matchups in the final days of the season which will likely determine who makes into the playoffs and/or who wins their respective divisions. For instance, as of tomorrow:

Yankees at Toronto - 3 games
Philly at Atlanta - 3 games
Oakland at Seattle - 2 games
Tampa at Houston - 3 games
San Diego at LA - 3 games
Arizona at SF - 3 games
Boston at Baltimore - 3 games

The really big ones are the Yanks/Jays and Phils/Braves series. The Braves are looking to clinch their division and probably need to take at least one of those games to put the clamps on the Phillies, who all but need to sweep the Braves. As for the Yanks and Jays cancelling each other out, the Red Sox have to be smiling being they're facing the pathetic O's. To a lesser extent in importance is the matchup between the A's & M's, being neither may not have enough to get into the postseason even if one of them takes both games. Guess we can root like hell for the Rays to sweep the Stros, but being they already have HFA locked up, there's little incentive for them to field their best lineups for those three games.


Then, to close out the season, here are what could very well be decisive series:

Tampa at Yankees - 3 games
Baltimore at Toronto - 3 games
Boston at Washington - 3 games
Oakland at Houston - 3 games
Milwaukee at LA - 3 games
San Diego at SF - 3 games

The Red Sox get to close out against another non-contender. I'd be shocked if based on their final 6 games they don't make the playoffs. The Rays again will have little incentive to throw their best lineups at the Yanks, but then again, if there's any chance they can be responsible for knocking out their arch rivals, who knows. Oakland may still be in the race or at the worst want to play spoiler against the Stros. The only incentive the Dodgers have to whup the Brewers is if they still have a shot at the division crown, which is unlikely. Otherwise, both teams will use this last series as a tune up.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Big loss for the Phillies tonite against the team they're trying to overtake for the division title. Winning the next two is absolutely mandatory for them to have any chance. The Braves are sitting pretty at the moment.

Similar sitch to a certain extent with the Jays losing to the Yanks. They needed that dub tonite, but were at least blessed with a surprise Red Sox loss to the lowly Orioles. The Jays have to root for Oakland to beat Seattle or else the M's will step ahead of them. Right now they're leading the A's 2-1.

 

[Mingo]

The Cardinals have been magnificent, but success like that can not be perpetuated - I'm thinking they have peaked too early.

The White Sox are rounding into form:

Robert, Anderson and Grandal are on fire - Eloy Jimenez is showing signs of getting his power stroke and batting eye back and Ceasar Hernandez is showing some late life at the plate. It is pretty much Captain Abreu who needs to round back into form. I think he will be there when needed.

Hendriks hasn't given up an earned run for 5 weeks and Bummer is putting together a run of good efforts. Nice start by Rey Lopez last night - it will be very nice to have him - in this form - for long relief or spot starts in the playoffs.

I still think the Sox will get to 93 wins - and considering the season - that if probably an underperformance for this team and talent.

 

[Jiddy]

The Cardinals have been magnificent, but success like that can not be perpetuated - I'm thinking they have peaked too early.

The White Sox are rounding into form:

Robert, Anderson and Grandal are on fire - Eloy Jimenez is showing signs of getting his power stroke and batting eye back and Ceasar Hernandez is showing some late life at the plate. It is pretty much Captain Abreu who needs to round back into form. I think he will be there when needed.

Hendriks hasn't given up an earned run for 5 weeks and Bummer is putting together a run of good efforts. Nice start by Rey Lopez last night - it will be very nice to have him - in this form - for long relief or spot starts in the playoffs.

I still think the Sox will get to 93 wins - and considering the season - that if probably an underperformance for this team and talent.

I will walk away from the TV, find a corner and kneel there, and pray until it is over.

 

[Mingo]

I will walk away from the TV, find a corner and kneel there, and pray until it is over.

Please post a selfie - so we will know help is on the way.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

The Braves whupped the Phillies again, reducing their magic number to 1. Altho Yogi would say it ain't over till it's over, ol' Don Meredith would sing, "Turn out the lights, the party's over"

I'm guessing right about now the Blue Jays and their fans are fixated on the outcome of the M's/A's game. The M's are currently tied with the Jays. Boston tho still owns the 2nd WC spot at the moment, so they control their own destiny.

The Dodgers might be in the process of choking away tonight's game against the Friars. They broke out early with 4-0 and 5-1 leads, but now in the going into the bottom of the 4th, SD has tied it. If the Dodgers go on to lose, this will all but wreck what little chance they had at overtaking the Giants.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Scott Merkin, the MLB's "official" writer for the Sox, opines on who will be on the playoff roster:

What could the postseason roster look like?
C: Yasmani Grandal
1B: José Abreu
2B: César Hernández
SS: Tim Anderson
3B: Yoán Moncada
LF: Eloy Jiménez
CF: Luis Robert
RF: Adam Engel
DH: Andrew Vaughn
SP: Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodón, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease
RP: Liam Hendriks (CL), Craig Kimbrel, Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, Reynaldo López, Dallas Keuchel, Ryan Tepera
Bench: Leury García, Seby Zavala, Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Gavin Sheets

A few things to note here, and this is assuming Merkin's roster prediction is accurate. He has us going with a 14/12 player/pitcher makeup, which should surprise no one. After all, these are the AL playoffs where the DH rules, not to mention that we'll only need to go with 4 starters. It appears that it's Jose Ruiz who will lose his spot in the pen to Dallas Keuchel. Ruiz has had an up-n-down season this year, but he does offer another power arm. My guess if there is any substitution to the pen, it will be Ruiz who gets first crack.

Can't say I'm shocked, but I nonetheless wonder if Garcia and Hernandez should swap starter/bench positions. And no real surprise here, Zavala replaces Collins as the backup catcher. One might ask if this is the case, why have the Sox been going with Collins the last few weeks? The answer is simple....why not give Seby as much playing time as possible down in AAA. So this makes sense. Collins might have made the cut had it not been for the success of Gavin Sheets, who brings more LH power and a steadier bat to the mix.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

M's win again and officially knock the A's out of the playoff hunt. Look at the WC race heading into the final weekend:

Yankees: 90-68.........+1
Red Sox: 89-69..........Even
Mariners: 89-70.........0.5
Jays: 88-70.................1

That's one friggin' tight race for the two spots. Yanks have another game against the Jays and the Red Sox likewise with the Orioles before all teams enter their respective final series. Can you imagine if they both lose??? Gonna be a wacky weekend of b-ball!!

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Let's talk attendance:

*The White Sox are averaging around 20k a game and rank 14th overall in BB.
*Nothing official yet, but it looks like MLB totals in '21 will show at least a 25% drop from the 2019 totals, which of course was the last season prior to the covid impact.
*The Dodgers as usual lead all clubs with almost 34k per game. But normally you can count on almost 50k on avg with their super loyal fan base.
*No team will draw 3mil whereas in '19 six teams topped that mark.
*Also, six teams will not even draw a million this season. They are Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa, Toronto, Oakland, and Miami. Of these six, Toronto at least has a legit excuse, being most of their home games were played in a minor league park. In pre-covid '19, only the Marlins failed to crack the million mark.

So back to the Good Guys, the arrow is definitely pointing up. Yeah, they're only gonna finish 14th in total attendance when the final numbers are in, but still, not too bad. I mentioned in another thread that the short two game series against the Reds drew more than 48k. Again, not bad when you consider we'd already clinched the Central, they were midweek games, and it's not as if the Reds are a traditional rival, which often jacks up attendance. That's why the arrow is pointing up. I can remember late season weekend games against arch rivals in years past that barely cracked 20k each game. There's little doubt that if all things are normal next year, we should easily crack the 2mil mark in attendance. In fact, I'm projecting about a 2.7mil attendance level next year - altho again, assuming all things are normal.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Scott Merkin, the MLB's "official" writer for the Sox, opines on who will be on the playoff roster:

What could the postseason roster look like?
C: Yasmani Grandal
1B: José Abreu
2B: César Hernández
SS: Tim Anderson
3B: Yoán Moncada
LF: Eloy Jiménez
CF: Luis Robert
RF: Adam Engel
DH: Andrew Vaughn
SP: Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodón, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease
RP: Liam Hendriks (CL), Craig Kimbrel, Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, Reynaldo López, Dallas Keuchel, Ryan Tepera
Bench: Leury García, Seby Zavala, Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Gavin Sheets

A few things to note here, and this is assuming Merkin's roster prediction is accurate. He has us going with a 14/12 player/pitcher makeup, which should surprise no one. After all, these are the AL playoffs where the DH rules, not to mention that we'll only need to go with 4 starters. It appears that it's Jose Ruiz who will lose his spot in the pen to Dallas Keuchel. Ruiz has had an up-n-down season this year, but he does offer another power arm. My guess if there is any substitution to the pen, it will be Ruiz who gets first crack.

Can't say I'm shocked, but I nonetheless wonder if Garcia and Hernandez should swap starter/bench positions. And no real surprise here, Zavala replaces Collins as the backup catcher. One might ask if this is the case, why have the Sox been going with Collins the last few weeks? The answer is simple....why not give Seby as much playing time as possible down in AAA. So this makes sense. Collins might have made the cut had it not been for the success of Gavin Sheets, who brings more LH power and a steadier bat to the mix.

This article indicates that it's Collins who will get the nod for backup catcher in the playoffs:

Chicago White Sox: Options for the postseason backup catcher

Zack Collins improved defense and left-handed bat might be what helps him make the Chicago White Sox playoff roster as Yasmani Grandal's backup.

southsideshowdown.com

Not sure which take is more accurate. But based on the performances of these two candidates, let's just say Grandal better catch every game.

 

[Mingo]

This article indicates that it's Collins who will get the nod for backup catcher in the playoffs:

Chicago White Sox: Options for the postseason backup catcher

Zack Collins improved defense and left-handed bat might be what helps him make the Chicago White Sox playoff roster as Yasmani Grandal's backup.

southsideshowdown.com

Not sure which take is more accurate. But based on the performances of these two candidates, let's just say Grandal better catch every game.

Personally - I'd go with Collins over Zavala too. Collins is not a good Defensive catcher, but I think he has proven to be a pretty good pitch selection caller. The pitchers like him - and he caught a no hitter - and caught Rodon's recent 1 hit effort when they got by on pitch selection and location better than Rodon's power arm. Collins also - has gotten a few hits in his recent at bats - leaving a more recent impression.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Personally - I'd go with Collins over Zavala too. Collins is not a good Defensive catcher, but I think he has proven to be a pretty good pitch selection caller. The pitchers like him - and he caught a no hitter - and caught Rodon's recent 1 hit effort when they got by on pitch selection and location better than Rodon's power arm. Collins also - has gotten a few hits in his recent at bats - leaving a more recent impression.

No doubt Collins seems to have the vote from Steve Stone, who obviously knows his baseball. Still, all in all, my vote goes to Grandal catching every inning possible. I don't think Zavala or Collins bring much to the table. A solid, dependable, experienced backup catcher should be one of the key items on Hahn's offseason shopping list.

 

[Bearsfan81]

Is Craig Kimbrel Being Overused?

Kimbrel has been at his best when well-rested this season. Why is he pitching on three consecutive days?

www.southsidesox.com

In depth article detailing Kimbrel’s struggles since joining the Sox. Basically speculates he’s lost fastball velocity due to fatigue. If true it doesn’t bode well for his prospects against the likes of the Astros in a high leverage situation.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Is Craig Kimbrel Being Overused?

Kimbrel has been at his best when well-rested this season. Why is he pitching on three consecutive days?

www.southsidesox.com

In depth article detailing Kimbrel’s struggles since joining the Sox. Basically speculates he’s lost fastball velocity due to fatigue. If true it doesn’t bode well for his prospects against the likes of the Astros in a high leverage situation.

Agreed there. But on the plus side tho he's been pitching better of late, plus he and his teammates will soon be getting a much needed rest after the regular season ends. Three whole days off until they face the Astros.

 

[Mingo]

I also agree, but Kembrel is not the only pitcher in baseball with a tired arm this season. He looked like he had his stuff last night - good outing (more rest before his usage last night).

 

[Mingo]

The core White Sox batting order has pushed to 8-2 in the 10 games they have played together this seasaon.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Gotta a little time to kill before our game tonite, so remember this Jeopardy question I posed last week?

Answer: Marcus Semien
Question:

Iddy gave a decent response by saying who was the Sox player we shouldn't have traded. Not a bad response at all, but it should've been:

Answer: Marcus Semien
Question: Who should be the first player the Sox target in the offseason.

To me, this is a no brainer. I have to say the Sox for the most part are built for the long haul at making the playoffs for a number of years down the pike. We're fairly set at most positions thruout the roster. Sure, we can use always use help here or there, but largely we're in a good spot. Yet thanks to that gawd awful trade of Madrigal and Heuer for Kimbrell in July, we're now left with a hole at 2b going into 2022. I believe we have Hernandez for another season under contract, altho I'm not sure of this. I've mentioned before I could more than happily live with Leury in a platoon role, but I think he's going to walk after this season and land with a team who'll give him a chance in a full time starter role.

Regardless of either of these players' status, can you imagine what our team would be like with Semien under tow? It would actually make me forget Madrigal....well for at least a few seasons. The man brings a better than average glove, but mostly brings a shitload of power with his bat. His addition could very well make our lineup the most dangerous in all of Baseball.

Of course the big Q is would he be willing to sign with us? And for the moment money aside, would he be willing to play 2b, knowing full well that TA is firmly entrenched as our SS?

I think the answer to both questions is a resounding yes. Remember, he broke into the bigs primarily as a 2b. He's more than proven that he's had no trouble playing there this season with Toronto. It sure hasn't affected his stick at all. And it wouldn't surprise me if Semien had a desire to return to the original scene of the crime.....his career in essence coming full circle by rejoining the Pale Hose, especially knowing that during his contract years he'll be playing for an annual contender.

But remember when I said put the money aside? Well, now's the time to bring it back into the conversation. The man is gonna get paid. Might not be more than a 4-5 year deal tops, but those years are gonna nail him some serious coinage. Will Jerry be willing to give him this? I think he will.