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QB ranking tiers: How long should you wait to take elite passers?
By Eric Karabell
Fantasy owners are always going to have their biases, and those tend to show the most in a draft or auction when an owner has about 12 seconds to decide on a player. We’ve all been there, right? It’s round 3, the top player in your queue has just been stolen from you at the last second -- the sound that makes can lead to nightmares -- and an expeditious choice needs to be made. We all know it’s likely to be the wrong one. If only you came extra, super prepared and knew which players were still available, as well as their relative value in relation to the player you didn’t acquire!
Decisions must be made swiftly and on the fly, and there has to be a quick way to ignore the biases and judge the available talent left at your disposal. That’s where tiered systems can save the day, or in this case, drafts. After all, the draft or auction is the key day on any fantasy calendar and nobody wants to make the wrong move, but when the quarterback you pegged for round 3 ends up on another team, you must act fast. Using a tiered system, you might find that someone just as valuable is still on the board and secure them immediately. Alternatively, you might discover that you can wait another 30 minutes to fill the position.
Today, we begin unveiling the tiered rankings for the big three fantasy football positions (or at least one writer’s opinion of what they should look like). Yours should be different and reflect your opinions; there’s no way you unilaterally concur with all my rankings, and you’re not lazy -- at least we hope not -- so do the work. After all, it's for a good cause. Figure out which players belong in which classes and then attack your draft or auction with focused zeal. Don’t worry so much when you hear that frightful sound and recognize your player queue is under attack. You’ve got tiered rankings, and all will be well.
As always, we start with the quarterback position, which is annually misjudged on draft day for value even by the folks who know they shouldn’t go quarterback in round 3 but do so anyway.
Tier 1: Round 5
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
This is the Big Three in my opinion. Even if they end up being the top three overall fantasy scorers, however, you still should secure a solid base of flex-eligible players (several running backs/wide receivers) before drafting any of them because those guys aren’t so easy to replace. Quarterbacks, even the so-called safe ones, can be replaced. Quarterbacks dominate scoring, even in PPR formats. Of last year’s top 30 scorers, 17 were quarterbacks. In a non-PPR format, it’s even more extreme, with the likes of Alex Smith and Sam Bradford outscoring all but seven flex-eligible options. Yes, Bradford outscored Antonio Brown in non-PPR.
In a 10- or even 12-team format, plenty of solid performers aren’t being utilized and are either free agents or on benches, meaning their fantasy value is simply wasted. They’re the equivalent of closers in baseball; trade your quarterback for other needs because chances are you have other needs, and you can find useful quarterback play via free agency. Good luck finding a free agent running back you can count on in Week 5.
Rodgers was fantasy’s top passer in 2016, Brady might have been if not for the silly suspension and Brees has finished in the top-6 each of the past 11 seasons. Yes, these guys are a bit different than the others. Others might outscore them by New Year’s Day, but you’re not going to want to take chances. Of course, I’m not going to get any of these quarterbacks because there’s always someone panicking and taking a quarterback late in round 1, or right after they’ve snagged a few running backs and think all the work is done. It’s not. Plenty of quarterbacks with better value will still be on the board later. The top quarterback in the next tier was a 13th-round choice last season.
Tier 2: Round 8
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
At this point in the draft, it’s going to take a disciplined person to pass up top quarterbacks who could easily push their way into the top tier, so be that guy or gal. And don’t snicker, because a few of these quarterbacks might just push their way into the top tier. Ryan, in his ninth season, finally did it. We’ve seen Luck do it several times. Newton was the top guy in 2015 and his balky shoulder has supposedly been fixed. Wilson can throw and run, but needs better offensive line protection and a running game. Any of these fellows are more than reasonable choices earlier, but one or two could slip to this point and prove a truly valuable asset. Yes, I do have some concern about both Luck and Newton -- each player is an injury risk -- but because this position is so deep, it’s worth tinkering with possible QBs at this point in the draft. You can also find a viable starter via free agency in mid-September.
Tier 3: Round 12
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Perhaps each team in your league will have its starting quarterback long before this point, but it’s unnecessary with this kind of depth. Prescott is coming off a magical rookie campaign, and while skeptics claim he can’t possibly do it again, that’s not really the case. He can! Prescott isn’t asked to carry the offense. Dallas boasts an excellent running game. Cousins, however, has carried his offense in consecutive seasons. I’m not sure how many more years he needs to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback to actually be recognized as one, but he gets my vote. Carr was a top-10 guy last season and his broken leg is fine. He shouldn’t be compared to Luck/Newton for risk assessment.
By Eric Karabell
Fantasy owners are always going to have their biases, and those tend to show the most in a draft or auction when an owner has about 12 seconds to decide on a player. We’ve all been there, right? It’s round 3, the top player in your queue has just been stolen from you at the last second -- the sound that makes can lead to nightmares -- and an expeditious choice needs to be made. We all know it’s likely to be the wrong one. If only you came extra, super prepared and knew which players were still available, as well as their relative value in relation to the player you didn’t acquire!
Decisions must be made swiftly and on the fly, and there has to be a quick way to ignore the biases and judge the available talent left at your disposal. That’s where tiered systems can save the day, or in this case, drafts. After all, the draft or auction is the key day on any fantasy calendar and nobody wants to make the wrong move, but when the quarterback you pegged for round 3 ends up on another team, you must act fast. Using a tiered system, you might find that someone just as valuable is still on the board and secure them immediately. Alternatively, you might discover that you can wait another 30 minutes to fill the position.
Today, we begin unveiling the tiered rankings for the big three fantasy football positions (or at least one writer’s opinion of what they should look like). Yours should be different and reflect your opinions; there’s no way you unilaterally concur with all my rankings, and you’re not lazy -- at least we hope not -- so do the work. After all, it's for a good cause. Figure out which players belong in which classes and then attack your draft or auction with focused zeal. Don’t worry so much when you hear that frightful sound and recognize your player queue is under attack. You’ve got tiered rankings, and all will be well.
As always, we start with the quarterback position, which is annually misjudged on draft day for value even by the folks who know they shouldn’t go quarterback in round 3 but do so anyway.
Tier 1: Round 5
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
This is the Big Three in my opinion. Even if they end up being the top three overall fantasy scorers, however, you still should secure a solid base of flex-eligible players (several running backs/wide receivers) before drafting any of them because those guys aren’t so easy to replace. Quarterbacks, even the so-called safe ones, can be replaced. Quarterbacks dominate scoring, even in PPR formats. Of last year’s top 30 scorers, 17 were quarterbacks. In a non-PPR format, it’s even more extreme, with the likes of Alex Smith and Sam Bradford outscoring all but seven flex-eligible options. Yes, Bradford outscored Antonio Brown in non-PPR.
In a 10- or even 12-team format, plenty of solid performers aren’t being utilized and are either free agents or on benches, meaning their fantasy value is simply wasted. They’re the equivalent of closers in baseball; trade your quarterback for other needs because chances are you have other needs, and you can find useful quarterback play via free agency. Good luck finding a free agent running back you can count on in Week 5.
Rodgers was fantasy’s top passer in 2016, Brady might have been if not for the silly suspension and Brees has finished in the top-6 each of the past 11 seasons. Yes, these guys are a bit different than the others. Others might outscore them by New Year’s Day, but you’re not going to want to take chances. Of course, I’m not going to get any of these quarterbacks because there’s always someone panicking and taking a quarterback late in round 1, or right after they’ve snagged a few running backs and think all the work is done. It’s not. Plenty of quarterbacks with better value will still be on the board later. The top quarterback in the next tier was a 13th-round choice last season.
Tier 2: Round 8
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
At this point in the draft, it’s going to take a disciplined person to pass up top quarterbacks who could easily push their way into the top tier, so be that guy or gal. And don’t snicker, because a few of these quarterbacks might just push their way into the top tier. Ryan, in his ninth season, finally did it. We’ve seen Luck do it several times. Newton was the top guy in 2015 and his balky shoulder has supposedly been fixed. Wilson can throw and run, but needs better offensive line protection and a running game. Any of these fellows are more than reasonable choices earlier, but one or two could slip to this point and prove a truly valuable asset. Yes, I do have some concern about both Luck and Newton -- each player is an injury risk -- but because this position is so deep, it’s worth tinkering with possible QBs at this point in the draft. You can also find a viable starter via free agency in mid-September.
Tier 3: Round 12
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Perhaps each team in your league will have its starting quarterback long before this point, but it’s unnecessary with this kind of depth. Prescott is coming off a magical rookie campaign, and while skeptics claim he can’t possibly do it again, that’s not really the case. He can! Prescott isn’t asked to carry the offense. Dallas boasts an excellent running game. Cousins, however, has carried his offense in consecutive seasons. I’m not sure how many more years he needs to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback to actually be recognized as one, but he gets my vote. Carr was a top-10 guy last season and his broken leg is fine. He shouldn’t be compared to Luck/Newton for risk assessment.
