Predict Jeff Samardzija's 2016 Stats

[Omar 382]

I'm expecting a bounce-back season. Easier league, better defenders, and a more spacious ball park to pitch in. Let's not forget; it's not like his 2015 season was awful, he did have a 4.23 FIP in 214 IP. I think his strikeout percentage will regress back to around the 20% mark this year.

220 IP 3.55/3.20/3.30 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) 4.6 WAR

 

[moxie]

YOU BETTER NOT BE JINXING HIM, GODDAMNIT!!

 

[navamind]

3.65/3.55/3.50

The drop in strikeout rate is a bit worrisome, and he isn't really a ground ball pitcher. AT&T should suppress some home runs though.

 

[tducey]

15-11 record. 3.42 ERA 172 strike outs

 

[Villain]

4.6 WAR?! What? You think he's on the cusp of his best season? His highest WAR was 4.1 and that was with a 2.99 ERA. You're betting on a lot going his way for a WAR that high.

It wasn't just his strikeout rate that got worse, his groundball rate was also a big problem. He was at 50% GB in his best year, down to 39% last year. The 11% difference was comprised of 9% more fly balls and 2% more line drives.

My guesses:
ERA - 4.10
K% - 20%
BB% - 7.5%
FIP - 3.75
BABIP - 3.00
WAR - 2.9

32 GS, 200 IP, 175 strikeouts, 23 homers.

He'll be slightly more valuable than he was to the White Sox, but his increase in strikeouts and walks will combine to increase his pitch counts and therefore he will not pitch as deeply into games and that will hurt his innings total for the season.

Everyone seems to agree that his home run rate will be helped significantly by pitching in the NL West with AT&T being his home base, but that ignores the fact that the Dodgers and Rockies were 1 & 2 in home runs last season. If the health reports on the Dodgers are to be believed, the anti-righty lineups from Dave Roberts are going to be brutal for The Shark. Arizona isn't a home run suppressor, and everyone knows what happens in Colorado.

He'll probably throw a 12 strikeout game against the Padres though.

This is as good a place as Samardzija could've gone and I think his most likely place to find success. With that said, I'm not drinking the kool-aid. It'll help, but it won't turn him into the dominant pitcher everyone has always thought he was on the verge of becoming.

 

[Bolts]

I hope he sucks.

 

[molsaniceman]

12-9 3.52 era 1.20 whip 200 ks 2.9 war