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PPR Keeper Conundrum

Across The Field

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In a 10 person league, full point PPR, I have the 3rd pick in the draft. I've gone back and forth on this several times. 1 keeper and you forfeit the pick you got them last year. I can have:

McCaffrey with a 2nd rounder
Kittle with a 15th

The reason this is a conundrum is that Zeke, Saquon, David Johnson, and (if I don't keep him) McCaffrey will be in the draft and not kept. I could either:

A. Keep CMC and grab someone like David Johnson or maybe Deandre Hopkins and come out of the first two rounds with two absolute studs or;

B. Keep Kittle, possibly get CMC at 3, and then grab a WR at the end of the 2nd like Adam Thielen or maybe even Mike Evans, and have my TE all taken care of in the 2nd to last round with a top 3 player at the position

Any input is appreciated
 

TREFF

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The smart play, the one that makes the most mathematical sense, is to keep Kittle. With Zeke's holdout, CMAC is the safest player in the draft, he and Barkley should be automatic #1 & #2, so I'd be banking on a decision between DJ/Bell/Kamara...depending on who's kept and who isnt.

Keeping CMAC is a safe way to assure two absolute studs, no matter who you take at #3, but not choosing again until Rd3 could leave a big gap.

I'd go with Kittle
 

averagejoe

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It helps you provided the league details.
10-team league means there should be plenty of depth.
Keep CMC.
Grab Hopkins. He's a PPR monster.
I'm down on David Johnson. No way I'd bump him in the top 3.
If Kamara is there, only Gurley had more TD than him last year.
 

MilkSpiller22

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In a 10 person league, full point PPR, I have the 3rd pick in the draft. I've gone back and forth on this several times. 1 keeper and you forfeit the pick you got them last year. I can have:

McCaffrey with a 2nd rounder
Kittle with a 15th

The reason this is a conundrum is that Zeke, Saquon, David Johnson, and (if I don't keep him) McCaffrey will be in the draft and not kept. I could either:

A. Keep CMC and grab someone like David Johnson or maybe Deandre Hopkins and come out of the first two rounds with two absolute studs or;

B. Keep Kittle, possibly get CMC at 3, and then grab a WR at the end of the 2nd like Adam Thielen or maybe even Mike Evans, and have my TE all taken care of in the 2nd to last round with a top 3 player at the position

Any input is appreciated


when's the draft and when do you have to decide by???

overall, i get the conundrum... having the third overall pick complicates EVERYTHING... and the fact it is a 10 team league doesn't help...

my conclusion is that it all depends on how much you like CMC... if you are confidant that he will be elite then keep him... if you don't think he will bring you back draft value as a top 3 pick, then dont keep him...

there is a difference between drafting a player someplace and being confidant they bring you back value...


Personally, i would Not keep CMC here because i like some 2nd rounders almost just as much as much and i am not convinced on CMC...
 

Schmoopy1000

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PPR league keep CMC
 

Across The Field

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The smart play, the one that makes the most mathematical sense, is to keep Kittle. With Zeke's holdout, CMAC is the safest player in the draft, he and Barkley should be automatic #1 & #2, so I'd be banking on a decision between DJ/Bell/Kamara...depending on who's kept and who isnt.

Keeping CMAC is a safe way to assure two absolute studs, no matter who you take at #3, but not choosing again until Rd3 could leave a big gap.

I'd go with Kittle

It helps you provided the league details.
10-team league means there should be plenty of depth.
Keep CMC.
Grab Hopkins. He's a PPR monster.

I'm down on David Johnson. No way I'd bump him in the top 3.
If Kamara is there, only Gurley had more TD than him last year.
And these are the two arguments that keep going through my head. Basically it comes down to this: Do I get more out of:

1. CMC/Zeke
2. Pretty good high-end WR
15. Kittle, top 3 TE

or

1. Hopkins
2. CMC
15. Who the hell knows?

I'm the damn commissioner, I should've made it a 2-keeper, but unfortunately that's not the way it is. There are fantastic arguments for both, and at the end of the day, it may just be a coinflip.
 

Across The Field

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Keep CMC for sure.

PPR league keep CMC
Since it's PPR, I could have an amazing team coming out of the draft with both CMC and Hopkins (or whichever WR I choose, they're all available), and the 15th rounder could be moot. At the end of the day, this may be the route I go, because Kittle is still only a 1-year guy who came clear out of the blue and won't be sneaking up on anyone. But the upside of having potentially CMC, someone like Mike Evans, and Kittle with the entire heart of the draft wide open is so damn hard to turn down.
 

Across The Field

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when's the draft and when do you have to decide by???

overall, i get the conundrum... having the third overall pick complicates EVERYTHING... and the fact it is a 10 team league doesn't help...

my conclusion is that it all depends on how much you like CMC... if you are confidant that he will be elite then keep him... if you don't think he will bring you back draft value as a top 3 pick, then dont keep him...

there is a difference between drafting a player someplace and being confidant they bring you back value...


Personally, i would Not keep CMC here because i like some 2nd rounders almost just as much as much and i am not convinced on CMC...
Thankfully we don't draft until the Tuesday before the regular season. Having the 3rd pick makes it way worse, because I'm basically getting a top 3 overall talent at the end of the 2nd round. I like CMC a lot, and I liked him a lot last year, but he certainly wasn't enough to keep my team afloat (I finished 7-6 out of the playoffs, as I was one of the dumbasses that took Lev Bell in the first).
 

Across The Field

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Heading to bed, thanks for the feedback guys. Wasn't expecting this much of a reaction this late at night, but thanks again.
 

femurov

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I would keep CMac. The chance to pair him with someone like Zeke or Kamara would be nice.
 

TKOSpikes

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CMC
 

wildturkey

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Cmac all the way. No doubt in my mind he can keep up being a beast. And you get the chance to pair him with another stud. There's no guarantee Kittle can repeat what he did last year. Some have him as a regression candidate (I think he'll be fine fwiw). But in this scenario, I think your value is in keeping Cmac, pairing him with another stud, and then trying to snag someone like Howard or Engram (or some other potential high target TE) in the later rounds. The difference between those guys and Kittle shouldn't be that great. At least not worth dropping Cmac because I can assure you that Saquon and him will go 1 and 2 so he won't make it back to you at 3. I'd only keep Kittle if I knew there was another back (like Kamara) I could get.
 

SmokingMonkey

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Another vote for keeping CMC here, and I like TEs more than most around these parts. Just 6-7 solid options.

If you had 12+ owners, it'd make kittle more appealing to me, as more teams would be scrambling to fill their TE spot.

Could easily land kittle back in the 4th in 10 man, or pull the trigger on kelce in the 3rd, should he slip a little
 

tlance

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It helps you provided the league details.
10-team league means there should be plenty of depth.
Keep CMC.
Grab Hopkins. He's a PPR monster.
I'm down on David Johnson. No way I'd bump him in the top 3.
If Kamara is there, only Gurley had more TD than him last year.

I agree with this 100%

Would keep CMac, then draft Hopkins over Johnson, assuming Zeke and Barkley get taken.

10 team leagues are all about getting true difference makers at their position, and you have a chance to get 2 of the very best.

Kittle in the 15th is fantastic value, but I would rather have 2 top 6 overall players.
 

averagejoe

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In the 100 years of the NFL, only 4 TE have had 1300+ seasons. Kittle is good, don't get me wrong. But he was also the only healthy option in SF last year. Plus throwing to him did not win them games.

This is my long-winded way of saying don't expect 1300 yards from Kittle. If you disagree, chances are he'll be there when you pick in the 3rd.
 

Across The Field

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A lot of good feedback here, again thanks guys. I'm thinking I'm going to stick with CMC, and the main reason @SmokingMonkey pointed out that this is a 10 man league, so there should be decent TE options down the road. Only Kelce is being kept among TEs, and while I'm forfeiting my 2nd rd pick, I will have the first pick of the third because the guys with the 1st and 2nd picks are keeping 3rd rounders from last year, so no biggie.

Not only that, but I have a pretty good idea of who is going to be getting taken in the first 2 rounds based on who was kept, and there's a real chance I could have the chance to pair a Hopkins with another high end WR at 3.1, and then deal with getting a mid-tier TE a few rounds later. In PPR, this makes a ton of sense.

Thanks again gentlemen, have a good weekend :suds:
 

Barilko

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Enough said above value wise Kittle in 15 wow....but

CMC Hopkins is too good a start especially PPR
 

TREFF

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In the 100 years of the NFL, only 4 TE have had 1300+ seasons. Kittle is good, don't get me wrong. But he was also the only healthy option in SF last year. Plus throwing to him did not win them games.

This is my long-winded way of saying don't expect 1300 yards from Kittle. If you disagree, chances are he'll be there when you pick in the 3rd.
It won em a couple... :)

I agree though, if Pettis can evolve and stay healthy, those two rookies, Deebo and Hurd, look awfully promising, and if Goodwin can stay active, there will definitely be more options.


Luckily for the op, so long as you make strong selection in either the 2nd, or the third, I don't see a losing scenario
 
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