Playoff scenarios

[Guy Incognito]

So, here's where it stands. Eagles can't get the #1 seed. They *might* be able to get a bye, if there's a three-way tie at 11-5 with the Bears and Saints, but I think that ship has sailed.

Obviously, they need to beat Dallas next week. They win that game, they create a tie atop the NFC East. Then, Eagles will hold the division tiebreaker on Dallas, and it's a matter of being able to hold serve in the final three games (Dallas has @IND, TB, and @NYG, so I'd say the Eagles need to win 2 of their final 3).

Wild card is still in play, as well. I see at least two wins for Seattle (@SF and vs. ARI), so I don't see the Eagles beating them for the 5 seed. Obviously, if the Eagles win 10 games, they'll have won the division. They can win the division at 9-7, assuming that their one loss isn't to Dallas (unless Dallas collapses in their final 3 after beating Philly, which I'd rate as .0000001% likely to happen).

That brings us to the mish-mash at the 6 seed. Vikings are currently ahead, thanks to the tie. They go @ SEA, MIA, @ DET, CHI to finish. I think that 8 wins is more likely than 7 for Minny (my guess is L, W, W, L), but the Vikings could Vike it up and lose to Miami or Detroit. Eagles would need that to happen if they were to lose 2 games down the stretch. I think they end up 8-7-1.

Carolina is in a free-fall. They just fired their DC, and have to play the Saints twice. 7-9 would be my guess for them.

Redskins are cooked.

Tampa has NO, @BAL, @DAL, and ATL to close out. I think they should finish at 7-9.

TL;DR: Eagles can win the division, assuming they beat Dallas and Washington at a minimum. The wild card is still very much in play at 9-7, but I don't know that 8-8 gets in if they lose to Dallas and LA.

 

[PhillyGreen]

We really have to consider the Eagles issues too when discussing this. The Eagles have two very critical issues IMO.

1. The Secondary
2. Jim Schwartz

The secondary is so bad they will not be able to stop any QB from picking them apart. Don't let last night fool you. Sanchez has only been back a couple weeks and was not really in football shape. It takes a little while for a QB to get used to the speed of the game.

Jim Schwartz is not capable of devising a game plan that will help hide some of the defensive deficiencies. The Eagles still have a fantastic front 7 but they are being held at bay because teams are leaving in an extra blocker. They only need to hold them off for a few extra moments because we can't cover anyone. The Eagles pass rush is a straight rush and it is easy to defend with an extra blocker. Cox gets double just about every single play and someone is always left in to chip on an edge rusher that is winning the battle. There are varied pass rushes. I can only recall a handful of times this season where we have ran stunts or blitzed from the outside. Everything is from the interior and teams are able to pick that up easy.

 

[Guy Incognito]

We really have to consider the Eagles issues too when discussing this. The Eagles have two very critical issues IMO.

1. The Secondary
2. Jim Schwartz

The secondary is so bad they will not be able to stop any QB from picking them apart. Don't let last night fool you. Sanchez has only been back a couple weeks and was not really in football shape. It takes a little while for a QB to get used to the speed of the game.

Jim Schwartz is not capable of devising a game plan that will help hide some of the defensive deficiencies. The Eagles still have a fantastic front 7 but they are being held at bay because teams are leaving in an extra blocker. They only need to hold them off for a few extra moments because we can't cover anyone. The Eagles pass rush is a straight rush and it is easy to defend with an extra blocker. Cox gets double just about every single play and someone is always left in to chip on an edge rusher that is winning the battle. There are varied pass rushes. I can only recall a handful of times this season where we have ran stunts or blitzed from the outside. Everything is from the interior and teams are able to pick that up easy.

They absolutely are a flawed team (currently why they're on the outside looking in), and I'd be more surprised than anything if they do manage to make it into the playoffs, given their limitations.

I think they're underdogs in at least two of their last four, if not all three games before Washington, and deservedly so. They are still in control of their playoff position, but they need to beat at least two contending teams, which isn't looking good right now. They're currently 1-6 against teams still somewhat in the hunt (excluding Washington from this because Sanchize), so I'm not expecting much. They haven't shown that they can win against quality competition this season.

 

[Roy Munson]

What are the HFA scenarios?

 

[Guy Incognito]

What are the HFA scenarios?

They might be able to get a bye if there's a three-way tie for the #2 seed. I'd put it at an extremely remote possibility right now.

 

[PhillyGreen]

What are the HFA scenarios?

Watching someone else win it. We can't get HFA. The best we can do is 10-6. The Saints already have 10 wins and kicked our ass.

 

[Roy Munson]

They might be able to get a bye if there's a three-way tie for the #2 seed. I'd put it at an extremely remote possibility right now.

Watching someone else win it. We can't get HFA. The best we can do is 10-6. The Saints already have 10 wins and kicked our ass.

sorry... just trolling.

 

[Guy Incognito]

sorry... just trolling.

Just looked, there's no chance. We can't tie the Vikings, and if the Bears are 10-6, their conference record would be 8-4, Eagles would be 7-5.

So they're playing the first weekend, if they make it.

 

[Roy Munson]

Just looked, there's no chance. We can't tie the Vikings, and if the Bears are 10-6, their conference record would be 8-4, Eagles would be 7-5.

So they're playing the first weekend, if they make it.

making my 14-6 prediction still possible.

 

[Rey]

As much as I try to stay positive about this season ... it's very hard to do realistically. Our band-aid 2ndary simply can't hang with the top NFC teams like the Rams or Saints. Then again as long as we get in anything can happen ... we can get hot at the right time and who knows. Nick Foles is walking proof of this ... so much so that some people are still calling for him over Wentz.

 

[djm]

If we beat the Cowboys I think there is still a chance at winning the division. We have lost to the Vikings and Panthers so they own the tie breaker over us. The Bucs are one game behind us and own the tiebreaker as well. None of the teams ahead of us have it easy so we could get lucky if we can win.

We have not been a good team this year and I don't see that changing. Beating the Giants and a Sanchez lead Skins team doesn't give me my confidence.

I really hope that they go into Dallas and find their end of year swagger.

Go Eagles!!!

 

[TheSnowdog]

Unfortunately it looks like...

 

[Rey]

As much as I try to stay positive about this season ... it's very hard to do realistically. Our band-aid 2ndary simply can't hang with the top NFC teams like the Rams or Saints.

Dallas just did us a favor ... getting into the playoffs this year would have been fools gold. We don't have the 2ndary to realistically compete in the post season. If not for the turnovers by Dallas (they're stuck with the fools gold this year) ... we wouldn't even have been in that game at the end.

btw, I'd strip the duties from whomever is calling/drawing up Offensive plays for us this year. Dead last in the league in 1st quarter points???? It's become pretty obvious that the dudes we lost this off-season (DeFilippo and Reich) had a HUGE role in making this Offense go. This year's Offensive playbook is .... well, Offensive, but to us ... not our opponents.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Mathematically still alive, but it doesn't look good right meow.

They can sneak in at 8-8, but that still means they need to beat one of the Rams or Houston. I wouldn't take that bet right now.

 

[old duke]

Dallas just did us a favor ... getting into the playoffs this year would have been fools gold. We don't have the 2ndary to realistically compete in the post season. If not for the turnovers by Dallas (they're stuck with the fools gold this year) ... we wouldn't even have been in that game at the end.

btw, I'd strip the duties from whomever is calling/drawing up Offensive plays for us this year. Dead last in the league in 1st quarter points???? It's become pretty obvious that the dudes we lost this off-season (DeFilippo and Reich) had a HUGE role in making this Offense go. This year's Offensive playbook is .... well, Offensive, but to us ... not our opponents.

My hope is that we will remove Groh, and sign one of the offensive "Genius's" that will be fired from a head coaching job at the end of the year. Dirk Cotterer? Maybe a good defensive mind - Bowles?

 

[mannyz]

Schwartz F'ing blows. We need an attacking defense that other teams fear.

 

[Orlando Eagles]

Mathematically still alive, but it doesn't look good right meow.

They can sneak in at 8-8, but that still means they need to beat one of the Rams or Houston. I wouldn't take that bet right now.

I mentioned in another thread (because I am an idiot) the path to 8-8 and what it would take. But not past that.

Just playing around with the Playoff Machine and the path of 8-8 and the 6th seed would like put us in Chicago....against that defense. Already a very tall order. Get past that and you are heading to New Orleans or LA.....not any better. So....sneaking in at 8-8 would be something. But having to go straight through some form or Chicago, New Orleans and LA to do anything.....oooffff.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Mathematically still alive, but it doesn't look good right meow.

They can sneak in at 8-8, but that still means they need to beat one of the Rams or Houston. I wouldn't take that bet right now.

I wouldn't want them to sneak in at all since it would be a one and done.......
Wentz ain't right, the secondary is a bunch of three deep back ups, and that Oline is leading like busted pipe....

Best case take the higher draft pick and rebuilding it for next season

 

[Guy Incognito]

Schwartz F'ing blows. We need an attacking defense that other teams fear.

As much as I don't like Schwartz, he's been dealt a shit hand this year.

I was more upset about the play earlier in the season. At this point, he's got one CB who can play at all on the field. When the back is that patchwork, it changes what you can do as a whole.

 

[Roy Munson]

Schwartz F'ing blows. We need an attacking defense that other teams fear.

we blitz way too infrequently.

The only way to make up for shitty corners is to rush the QB.