Players who will score more in 2014 - ESPN Insider (Mike Clay)

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In the world of fantasy football, no scoring category makes a bigger impact than touchdowns. The six points you earn from a score is the equivalent of 60 rushing or receiving yards in most formats. Projecting touchdowns, however, is one of the hardest jobs taken on by prognosticators. And it's for that reason that I created opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD).

If you're new to the stat, be sure to check out our introduction to rushing and receiving OTD. The OTD metric weighs every carry and target, and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity.

As the fantasy football draft season continues, it's important that we have each player ranked just right. Here are 10 players who the OTD projections suggest are in for a touchdown boost this season.

Note: OTD and TD figures are from the 2013 regular season.

Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

OTD: 8.8, TD: 7

Jeffery is coming off a sophomore season that saw him break out to the tune of 89 receptions, 1,421 yards and seven scores. He finished as the No. 9 wide receiver in fantasy based on that production. That being the case, it may seem odd to see him on a list suggesting he underperformed in a category.

But he did. Jeffery racked up 18 end-zone targets, which was the fifth-highest total in the league. He hauled in only four of the looks, however, which means he left a handful of scores on the table. Jeffery's three other touchdowns came after runs of 1, 2 and 52 yards.

2014 projection: Eight touchdowns. Jeffery has a big frame, is skilled at fighting for jump balls, and will be heavily targeted in and around the end zone. It wouldn't be a surprise if he winds up with 10 or more scores.

Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts

OTD: 5.0, TD: 0

During his first three years in the NFL, Nicks was targeted 31 times while in the end zone. He caught 14 of those for touchdowns, and added another 10 scores to his total with some post-catch production. Over the past two seasons, he's seen a total of 16 end-zone looks. Amazingly, he's caught none of them, and has only three scores during the span. No player saw more targets (98) without finding pay dirt this past season.

2014 projection: Four touchdowns. Nicks has a tougher path to targets in Indianapolis, but he's bound to find the end zone a handful of times this season.

Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens

OTD: 7.3, TD: 4

With Anquan Boldin out of the picture, Smith's target total increased quite a bit this past year. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, the uptick didn't translate to a boost in touchdowns. In fact, his 2013 total was exactly half of the eight scores he accrued in 2012. Smith hauled in 11 of 31 end-zone targets (35 percent) through his first two seasons, but he was only 3-of-13 (23 percent) last year.

2014 projection: Six touchdowns. Smith, who totaled 15 scores through two NFL seasons, will benefit from improved offensive efficiency under Gary Kubiak, as well as some regression to the mean in terms of red zone catching.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

OTD: 5.0, TD: 2

Houston's offense was a total mess last season, which made it extremely hard for Hopkins to put up a strong rookie season. Despite racking up 91 targets, he scored just twice. Expected to be a major asset near the goal line, "Nuk" managed to haul in only two of his 10 end-zone targets, and failed to go the distance on any of his other 81 looks.

2014 projection: Five touchdowns. Houston will score more often in 2013, and Hopkins will progress in his second professional season. A role guaranteed to be significant primes the 2013 first-round pick for a breakout season.

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

OTD: 8.3, TD: 5

Sticking with the Texans, we have this past offseason's OTD poster boy, Andre Johnson. Houston's No. 1 receiver ranked fifth in the NFL in targets in 2012, but saw only six end-zone targets en route to scoring four times all season. In 2011, only three of Johnson's 49 targets came while he was in the end zone. Considering that Johnson paced the league with 176 targets last season, his five scores were obviously low, but the good news is that he had an opportunity to score more. He handled 13 end-zone looks and was targeted 12 additional times when within 10 yards of the end zone.

2014 projection: Six touchdowns. At 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Johnson's minimal usage near the goal line in 2013 was mind-boggling. With a new coaching staff and quarterback in town, we can safely expect more end-zone targets in 2014.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

OTD: 10.5, TD: 4

Along with the rest of the Ravens offense, Rice struggled badly last season. The rusher managed only four touchdowns despite racking up 214 looks (carries plus targets). The good news is that Rice was plenty involved near the goal line. He handled six carries from the opponent's 1-yard line, and only five backs exceeded Rice's 16 carries within 5 yards of the end zone. Rice only has six career receiving touchdowns, but should've found pay dirt once or twice on last year's 70 targets.

2014 projection: Seven touchdowns. Rice's two-game suspension has made him a boom-or-bust mid-round investment. Baltimore has a new offense, but Rice's impressive résumé and age (27) suggest a rebound is in store.

Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins

OTD: 6.7, TD: 5

In eerily familiar fashion to the aforementioned Johnson, Garcon finished second in the league in targets last season, but caught only five touchdowns. As you might have guessed, end-zone inefficiency was the culprit. Nicks was the only player in the league who saw more end-zone looks without scoring a touchdown. Nicks saw nine, while Garcon had eight. Of course, end-zone efficiency has been a trouble area for Garcon throughout his career. Over the past five years, 31 players have seen at least 40 end-zone targets. None have a conversion rate lower than Garcon's 21 percent.

2014 projection: Seven touchdowns. Despite his struggles in the end zone, Garcon still scored five times last year. Under the assumption that the Washington offense will be better in 2013, Garcon's scoring total will rise slightly.

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

OTD: 12.8, TD: 8

Despite missing three games, Bell paced the league with 10 carries from the opponent's 1-yard line last season, and only Marshawn Lynch handled more carries within 5 yards of the end zone. Bell ended up with a healthy eight scores, but really should've had more. He failed to score on any of his 62 targets, eight of which came within 10 yards of the end zone. In fact, all eight of Bell's scores came within 8 yards of the end zone. He failed to turn any of the other 277 looks into touchdowns.

2014 projection: Nine touchdowns. Bell has shown signs of his explosive upside, but it didn't translate into any long touchdowns in 2013. Expect improvement in that area in his sophomore season.

Cecil Shorts III, Jacksonville Jaguars

OTD: 5.9, TD: 3

Although he has caught just five of 18 career end-zone targets, Shorts is primed to rebound from a three-score 2013 season. At 6-0, 202 pounds, Shorts is far from an intimidating presence near the goal line, but he has seen enough target volume to generate more scores. Back in 2012, Shorts scored seven times, but only one came on an end-zone look. He took three in from 1 yard out, and the other three from 39, 62 and 64 yards. Last year, all three scores came on end-zone targets.

2014 projection: Four touchdowns. Shorts is guaranteed a heavy workload with Justin Blackmon suspended for the season, but his upside is limited with the Jaguars offense expected to struggle.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers

OTD: 3.1, TD: 1

Over the five seasons previous to last, Miller caught 12 of 22 (55 percent) end-zone targets. That included a dominant seven catches on eight targets when positioned in the front half of the end zone. Miller scored 21 times during that five-year span. Last season, Miller was targeted while in the end zone four times. He failed to record a catch, scoring his only touchdown after a run of 5 yards.

2014 projection: Five touchdowns. Miller is Pittsburgh's top receiving threat near the goal line, as shown by his eight-score 2012 campaign. Now fully recovered from a torn ACL late that year, he's back in the TE1 conversation in 2014.

Alshon Jeffery among players who will score more touchdowns in 2014 - Fantasy Football - Fantasy Football - ESPN

 

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Part 1 of OTD Intro

Red zone statistics are terribly flawed. There, I said it.

In the world of fantasy football, we're always looking for advantages over the competition. For years, one of those ways has been the evaluation of scoring potential based on a player's usage in the red zone. The problem with this is simple: each red zone look is weighted evenly, despite the increase in touchdown probability as a team edges closer to the end zone.

Consider that over the past five years, 2.2 percent of carries from the 19-yard line resulted in a touchdown. On the other hand, 52.8 percent of carries from the 1-yard line resulted in a touchdown. Despite the fact a back is more than 24 times more likely to score from the 1 than the 19, red zone data puts an equal weight on both of those carries.

Fortunately, we now have an alternative for red zone data: opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (or OTD).

In the world of sports analysis, we're always looking to gather a bunch of relevant statistics and combine them into one number that defines a player's production (QBR, for example). Although the focus here is strictly on scoring opportunity, that's essentially what is going on with OTD. Instead of spending more than an hour every week scanning lists of Arian Foster's total carries versus inside the 5-yard line carries versus inside the red zone carries, we'll provide you with one number that tells you all you need to know. That number is the player's OTD.

It's important to remember that OTD in and of itself is an opportunity stat. It has no direct correlation with player skill. If Foster and Kahlil Bell each get a carry from the 1-yard line, they'll receive the same boost to their OTD total.

It does, on the other hand, say something about the player's team. Strong offenses are more likely to be in scoring range, which means more touchdown opportunities for the team's rushers. As mentioned above, 100 percent of carries result in, at the least, a tiny addition to a player's OTD. So, a heavy volume of carries would help boost a player's OTD. It's all about opportunity.

Fantasy Football - Measuring RB scoring chances - Fantasy Football - ESPN