player prediction's - 1B

[thecrow124]

With ST being less than 2 weeks away, I thought it would ne a good time to go around the diamond by position and see what we as a board think our team might be able to accomplish on an individual basis. I was going to start with the catchers, but I expect very little out of them so I will save them for later.

At 1B we have the "platoon" of McGehee and Jones. You can feel free to give whatever info you want about the position or the players themselves, my hope is just to compile enough info by position to compile a w-l prediction off of our guesstimated WAR's. Then at the end of the season see how it actually compared. I don't think it would be ideal ti try to predict a players WAR, but if you must, feel free. I probably won't use it, I just basically want a projected slash line. From there if you want to extrapolate every useful stat out again, feel free, however, if it just doesn't project out to the slash line I will probably just use my own numbers that would extrapolate out correctly. For example if you put down that the combo of Jones and McGehee will slug .458 but have them hitting a combined 18 HR, with 25 doubles I would likely need to adjust your HR total or your double total.

This is just for fun, so there doesn't need to be any scientific data to support your prediction. As a matter of fact I would prefer that there was none just to keep the thread clean.

 

[magnumo]

Nice idea, crow. I normally don't do specific predictions for players, because so much can happen during a baseball season..... but I'll give it a shot.

- I expect the 1B platoon to be more Jones-Evans rather than Jones-McGehee. Although I believe Alvarez will be handed the 3B job early in the season, regardless of what he does in Spring Training, I expect him to falter, and I see McGehee playing more 3B than 1B..... at least as a platoon partner for Alvarez.

- It's unfortunate that Jones didn't make the majors sooner than he did. At age 31 come June, seems more likely that he will be in gradual decline rather than showing any signifcant improvement. I think we've see the real Jones during the past couple of seasons. I expect a slash line of .245/.318/.422/.740 from Jones.

- Evans MAY not make the roster. On the other hand, he may benefit from a bit more playing time than he's used to getting, although I don't expect to see much power from him. I'll go with .261/.315/.415/.730 from Evans.

If you're looking for a combined slash line for Pirate first-basemen, put me down for .250/.317/.420/.737 (not very good for the position).

 

[evolver115]

Nice idea, crow. I normally don't do specific predictions for players, because so much can happen during a baseball season..... but I'll give it a shot.

- I expect the 1B platoon to be more Jones-Evans rather than Jones-McGehee. Although I believe Alvarez will be handed the 3B job early in the season, regardless of what he does in Spring Training, I expect him to falter, and I see McGehee playing more 3B than 1B..... at least as a platoon partner for Alvarez.

- It's unfortunate that Jones didn't make the majors sooner than he did. At age 31 come June, seems more likely that he will be in gradual decline rather than showing any signifcant improvement. I think we've see the real Jones during the past couple of seasons. I expect a slash line of .245/.318/.422/.740 from Jones.

- Evans MAY not make the roster. On the other hand, he may benefit from a bit more playing time than he's used to getting, although I don't expect to see much power from him. I'll go with .261/.315/.415/.730 from Evans.

If you're looking for a combined slash line for Pirate first-basemen, put me down for .250/.317/.420/.737 (not very good for the position).

I pray that doesn't happen, but I've got the same fears that El Toro is a bust

 

[thedddd]

I agree I think Pedro will be a bust.

Anyway the 1B position will be:
Jones: .235/.305/.410/.715 - The decline has occurred every year and I think it is still going to occur.
McGehee: .251/.335/.425/.760
For the 1B: .243/.320/.418/.738 - just to make it simple i averaged it out even though their numbers truly won't be 50/50.


If we go with Mags thought about Evans: .255/.315/.410/.725

Then with Jones/Evans it would be: .245/.310/.410/.720

In my prediction the Jones/McGehee would be better but I think McGehee might be the everyday 3B for this team.

 

[Etrius24]

Pedro has a lot of proving to do if he wants to start over McGehee... McG is not spectacular but he is steady...So Pedro will have to show he can be steady and show that there is still the potential for the spectacular....As much as I want Pedro to succeed He has never, ever been steady since being drafted.

I think Evans can hit... I think that regular playing time would help him...He is not a power guy per se... But he is a good doubles hitter...He even has shown that he can hit triples in the minors... His walk rate is acceptable...Not great, not terrible..And last season he was just 25 years old..

I think that everyday as a regular we can expect a line of .270/ 345/ 445/ 790

15 homeruns....40 doubles...60 walks

Nothing to write home about...But when you consider he is elite defensively...I could live with that... Factor in that he will make close to league minimum...and it is decent bang for the buck.

 

[element1286]

Assuming Hurdle actually uses a platoon...

Jones: 265/335/450
Mcgehee: 255/320/440
Evans: 280/330/420

Total: 265/330/435
The group will give away runs with the glove as a whole.

 

[element1286]

Assuming Hurdle actually uses a platoon...

Jones: 265/335/450
Mcgehee: 255/320/440
Evans: 280/330/420

Total: 265/330/435
The group will give away runs with the glove as a whole.

 

[magnumo]

Hmmm

Gotta wonder about three parts of this post:

Pedro has a lot of proving to do if he wants to start over McGehee... McG is not spectacular but he is steady

Gotta wonder about a description of McGehee as "steady." His performance on offense dropped off badly across the board in 2011..... resulting in a slash line of .223/.280/.346/.626. (And he got only 5 at bats in the post-season.) Yeah..... McGehee was better than Pedro (that ain't sayin' much) but "steady" hardly seems like an accurate descriptor (unless you mean "steady bad").

I think that everyday as a regular we can expect a line of .270/ 345/ 445/ 790

It appears that thecrow was asking for a prediction on the actual performance of Pirate first-basemen for 2012, which he plans to use in an ongoing extrapolation process of his own. Given that context, it appears that you are predicting that Evans WILL BE the Pirates' regular first baseman. It would be great if he hits well enough to force that..... but it seems unlikely that he will even get a chance at being a "regular" (unless you mean the righty half of a "regular" platoon).

Nothing to write home about...But when you consider he is elite defensively

"Elite" defensively? Nick Evans has played in a total of 53 games (44 starts) at 1B in the major leagues over three partial seasons. He has also played in 59 games (43 starts) in the OF during that time. Many have described Evans' fielding at 1B as good, but prior to 2011, some rated his defense at 1B as "fair" or "fringe."

At any rate, in my opinion, the sample size is just too small to describe Evans as "elite" defensively. That term is generally reserved for those who have performed extremely well over a long period of time.

And before you repeat the inaccurate claim that I'm obsessed with you or somehow singling you out.....

- If anyone posted that McGehee was "steady," I would question that as I did above.

- If anyone suggested that Nick Evans would be the Pirate regular 1B, I would question that as I did above.

- If anyone called Nick Evans an "elite" defensive 1B, I would question that as I did above.

The difference is that others on this board don't routinely post that kind of stuff. In fact, such was rare on this board until you showed up.

 

[element1286]

I agree with your take on Evans defense, Mags. I've never seen him play first but he isn't a huge guy, fairly athletice, and has played a lot of OF, so he seems like he should be average at worst. It is hard to be elite with little experience at the position.

 

[Illinest]

My prediction:

Pittsburgh Pirates and Manager Clint Hurdle plan on working out Dmitri Young next week at the Pirates Spring Training complex @ Bradenton FL

- fFrom Bowden

With Jackson turning the Pirates down I bet the Pirates make an offer on Young. God only knows how that will go. I will say this much - Young could be every bit as effective as Derek Lee. He's 38 years old but he's supposedly 230 pounds and anxious for a team to give him a chance.
Could easily be another massive failure but it wouldn't be entirely shocking if he is capable of .775 OPS too.

 

[Darkstone42]

My prediction:

- fFrom Bowden

With Jackson turning the Pirates down I bet the Pirates make an offer on Young. God only knows how that will go. I will say this much - Young could be every bit as effective as Derek Lee. He's 38 years old but he's supposedly 230 pounds and anxious for a team to give him a chance.
Could easily be another massive failure but it wouldn't be entirely shocking if he is capable of .775 OPS too.

What could it hurt? Outside of trades, there's nothing really left on the free agent market in terms of first basemen, so why not try? Maybe we'll actually get lucky for once.

 

[Darkstone42]

I don't know exactly how it's going to play out, but I foresee worst-case being .250/.320/.400 and best case being .275/.350/.450.

I'm really crossing my fingers for best-case, but I expect reality to fall somewhere close to the very middle of the range I've projected, about .260/.330/420 or so.

 

[Etrius24]

Actually mags....He was great at first in the minors... and in limited action he has been great in the bigs... I read an article on Evans defense a few months back and it was even better than I noticed.... you can go look it up if you doubt be mags...

 

[Etrius24]

Compared to Pedro...Anyone is is sure and steady...Even Mcgehee. As I said he is not spectacular.... but He does not give away huge chunks of at bats at a time like Pedro.

 

[magnumo]

Hmmm

Hope I won't regret responding to these two posts..... but I'm gonna give it a shot.

Actually mags....He was great at first in the minors... and in limited action he has been great in the bigs... I read an article on Evans defense a few months back and it was even better than I noticed.... you can go look it up if you doubt be mags...

Two thoughts in reply.....

1. No need to look it up..... I also saw articles about Evans' good defense in his small sample size, including this one:

Nick Evans, under-the-radar asset? - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

----(Please don't ignore the last two paragraphs in the article.)

2. Had you posted, "in limited action Evans has been great in the bigs" (as you did above), I would not have questioned it..... but what you posted was, Evans "is elite defensively." Those two different sets of words paint two different pictures.

Compared to Pedro...Anyone is is sure and steady...Even Mcgehee. As I said he is not spectacular.... but He does not give away huge chunks of at bats at a time like Pedro.

Had you posted something like that..... that McGehee (even in his down year) was better or steadier than Pedro..... I would not have questioned it. But what you posted was "McG is not spectacular but he is steady." Those two different sets of words paint two different pictures.

 

[Etrius24]

Mags

Thanks for telling me how I need to post to make you happy... I could really give a fuck what you like or dislike... If my posting bothers you... ignore my posts.

Regarding McGehee... I said he was not spectacular... as in not great... But compared to pedro... the weather is a sure thing!...I should not have to spell out everything for you mags... When I said initially that he was not Spectacular but was steady... I kind of thought that you were smart enough to look at his best and worst seasons and see that he was still better than anything Pedro as of right now.

Considering the fact that you like to look stuff up I did not see this being a problem for you.


As for Nick Evans...

Yes the MLB time under his belt is limited... but he has been able to be great with the glove in the minors... We have no reason to assume that if he plays more often all of a sudden his defense will drop off.... And the fact does remain that when he plays... His defense is elite....

This is not the same as saying someone is a great hitter and they are a part time platoon player that never has to face tough left handers... Defense is defense....

 

[thedddd]

Here is Nick Evans minor league career:
Nick Evans Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

Majority was at 1B, not going to comment if he was elite or not because I never watched him play or cared to. If I did see him play for the Mets I don't remember.

Anyway I think the most disappointing thing in all of this is the fact that the Pirates 1B position will be manned by either Jones, McGehee, Evans or Fox. The telling fact is that they worked out Dmitri Young!

Honestly for the 1B position this team NEEDS more offense than defense so being a great defensive 1B won't really help this team out as much. -- I might regret this statement if Walker, Alvarez and McGehee (possible 3B) don't improve in the field.

 

[magnumo]

Well

Mags

Thanks for telling me how I need to post to make you happy... I could really give a fuck what you like or dislike... If my posting bothers you... ignore my posts.

Regarding McGehee... I said he was not spectacular... as in not great... But compared to pedro... the weather is a sure thing!...I should not have to spell out everything for you mags... When I said initially that he was not Spectacular but was steady... I kind of thought that you were smart enough to look at his best and worst seasons and see that he was still better than anything Pedro as of right now.

Considering the fact that you like to look stuff up I did not see this being a problem for you.


As for Nick Evans...

Yes the MLB time under his belt is limited... but he has been able to be great with the glove in the minors... We have no reason to assume that if he plays more often all of a sudden his defense will drop off.... And the fact does remain that when he plays... His defense is elite....

This is not the same as saying someone is a great hitter and they are a part time platoon player that never has to face tough left handers... Defense is defense....

I do regret it (that I replied). No more for me in this thread.

You just don't get it.

And I regret that, too.

 

[magnumo]

Here is Nick Evans minor league career:
Nick Evans Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

Majority was at 1B, not going to comment if he was elite or not because I never watched him play or cared to. If I did see him play for the Mets I don't remember.

Yeah, thedddd. Like you, I had never seen Evans play 1B..... so, when I read that SweetSpot article (linked in a previous post) about the possibility that the Pirates might get some good defense from Evans at 1B, I checked out his career numbers (both major and minor leagues) at Baseball Reference, as well.

Then I also checked the minor league stats of a few comps who are more familiar (at least to me): Matt Curry, Matt Hague, and Steve Pearce. That gave me 4 players to compare. (Curry's sample is the smallest, including 175 games and 1707 chances over 2 seasons.)

The comparisons below are for defense at 1B in the minor leagues:

- Fielding percentages - ordered from best to worst: Curry (.994), Evans (.993), Hague (.991), Pearce (.989)

- Range factor (putouts plus assists) per game - ordered from best to worst: Curry (9.69), Hague (9.45), Evans (9.30), Pearce (9.29)

- For sabermetricians: Pearce has a better Rtz than Evans (23 vs. 20), even though Evans has more chances than Pearce (4967 vs. 4093). Hague's Rtz is 8 in 3654 chances, putting him behind both Pearce and Evans. They didn't list Rtz for Curry.

Anyway I think the most disappointing thing in all of this is the fact that the Pirates 1B position will be manned by either Jones, McGehee, Evans or Fox. The telling fact is that they worked out Dmitri Young!

Honestly for the 1B position this team NEEDS more offense than defense so being a great defensive 1B won't really help this team out as much. -- I might regret this statement if Walker, Alvarez and McGehee (possible 3B) don't improve in the field.

Seems to me that you have captured some essence there.

Despite the Pirates' glaring need for more offense, I was appalled when I read of their interest in the 38-year-old Dmitri Young. Geez..... the guy hasn't played in the majors since a bench role with the Nats in 2008, and hasn't played regularly since 2007.

- Offense: While Young had an above average bat, his power was limited, and he put up more than 2 oWAR only once (3.9 way back in 2003).

- Defense: Young was below average with the glove, putting up a -2.4 dWAR over his career. In 2003, his dWAR was -1.2, detracting from his best offensive season.

- Overall: For his last three years in MLB (2006-2008), Young was barely at replacement level, totaling 0.1 WAR (1.9 on offense and -1.8 on defense).

Even if Young can approach his career average with the bat (seems unlikely)..... I see a VERY SMALL CHANCE that he would be an improvement over a Jones-Evans or Jones-McGehee platoon..... AND he would be a liability with the glove.

I do not see a viable role for this guy, and any kind of serious pursuit of him by the Pirates smells a bit like desperation. On one hand, perhaps NH is starting to realize that it may be time for desperate measures. On the other, (hopefully) Young will fail his tryout.

 

[Illinest]

To etrius.
I dont particularly feel the need to repeat what magnumo said to you but i think you need to know that you are responsible for your reputation.
Let me be perfectly clear - you have a bad reputation.

You are essentially a troll. I suspect you dont realize it which makes it even worse. YOU are the one who started making personal attacks. Magnumo has done nothing more than to point out the times when you give false or incomplete information. When youve been confronted with quotes or facts that directly refute what you posted you get angry and defensive. If you want to be respected then you need to earn it. Dont tell us that nick evans is an elite defender when weve all read articles that cover a range of other evaluations. You insult our intelligence. We KNOW what's been written about Evans. We dont need you to filter out the optimistic stuff and feed it back to us. Its a waste of everyones time. Instead why dont you try linking directly to the article and let the article speak for itself.