Pick an injury risk early on??

[MilkSpiller22]

I am looking at the first 2 rounds and their are many injury risk players be chosen... CJ spiller is too small and runs too much not to get injured, jamaal charles is coming back from a huge injury, arian foster is already injured... Mccoy is also coming back from an injury...

should their value drop?? is having them for 10-14 weeks better than having a lesser player for 14-16 weeks??

take 2 players with similar stats one plays 12 games and one plays 15 games who would you rather have?? I am thinking i would rather have the 12 game player, and insert a replacement from my bench the other 5 weeks... the way i see it is that i have too much of an advantage the 12 games that my player plays...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

exactly - there was a lengthy discussion regarding this scenario and DMC - are the big games that he is capable of worth the games he misses?

It is a tough call, and depends on how risk averse one owner is compared to the next. I prefer someone with a relatively injury-free past, but some guys, like McCoy and Charles, have produced good numbers in the past, and are still young enough that when healthy, I consider them to be locks for top 10 RB

 

[wilwhite]

Missed games is very hard to predict. Essentially you can't figure 12 vs. 15, because it will never work out that way. DMC might play 14 games or he might play 6, with a small chance at 16, and at 0. Martin might play 16 or might tear his ACL Week 3.

"High-risk" and "low-risk" are very broad categories that can work out over maybe 50 RBs, but the problem is we only start a couple and are only looking at 17 weeks. It's kinda like batting average. It's not predictive for a single at-bat or even a three-game series. You can go to a three-game series and see a .300 hitter go 7-for-12 or 2-for-12, and neither one is all that unusual.

I don't really think it's a question of 15 games or 12; I think it's a question of 15 games or some unknown much smaller number.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I think you have to go with proven numbers. If the player in question has been solid throughout their career you have to bank on that. They may or may not get injured but you have to ride them until they do. Obviously instill some safety nets and anticipate what could happen if they do get hurt but if you have a workhorse running back, they are too rare to pass up.