Pecota Projections from Baseball Prospectus

[catman]

PECOTA Standings from Baseball Prospectus

www.baseballprospectus.com

 

[Fountain City Blues]

PECOTA isn't a betting line, but with the weird lack of minor league data, but I feel pretty good about the Royals beating 71 wins. I was feeling 75 which was below fangraphs 78 prior to the Benintendi trade.

Thinking the Royals will be competitive, but not a serious threat for the playoffs.

 

[BigRedMoe]

PECOTA isn't a betting line, but with the weird lack of minor league data, but I feel pretty good about the Royals beating 71 wins. I was feeling 75 which was below fangraphs 78 prior to the Benintendi trade.

Thinking the Royals will be competitive, but not a serious threat for the playoffs.

I think the Benintendi acquisition moves us from 0.6% to 0.9% chance of winning the division.

 

[navamind]

I think the Red Sox can score more than 752 runs even after trading Benintendi, though they're also probably going to give up more than 765. I could see them hitting .500, but I don't think the playoffs are realistic.

Still baffled by the White Sox and Braves projections.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think the Red Sox can score more than 752 runs even after trading Benintendi, though they're also probably going to give up more than 765. I could see them hitting .500, but I don't think the playoffs are realistic.

Still baffled by the White Sox and Braves projections.

PECOTA has had some weird projections I just don't get even with an ultra-conservative mindset.

 

[navamind]

PECOTA has had some weird projections I just don't get even with an ultra-conservative mindset.

Yeah, it's nothing new. Even if the White Sox do take a step back, I'm just not sure I can see Cleveland finishing ahead. The rotation after Bieber is pretty underwhelming and Jose Ramirez is the only hitter projected for 2+ WAR (5.7).

 

[navamind]

Here's FanGraphs' projected standings just to compare:

Depth Charts - Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

2024 projected standings for major league baseball teams

www.fangraphs.com

 

[molsaniceman]

Here's FanGraphs' projected standings just to compare:

Depth Charts - Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

2024 projected standings for major league baseball teams

www.fangraphs.com

pecota looks more realistic for the ALE sox in front of rays is crazy

 

[navamind]

pecota looks more realistic for the ALE sox in front of rays is crazy

I agree. I think the Jays and Rays will finish around 90 wins.

 

[navamind]

 

[catman]

That looks reasonable. I'm looking forward to the Twins/White Sox battling for the AL Central.

 

[nynasty]

About the only ones ranking Atlanta where they should be.

Mets will be better, no question, but I still see Atlanta as superior.

 

[SeattleCoug]

This one seems pretty solid

 

[catman]

I could see both the Twins and White Sox with over 90 wins -- the AL Central is going to be a 2-team race, I think. The Indians will still have pitching, but their offense will be much less productive without Lindor. You don't let someone like him go and expect to have a great offensive season. The Royals and Tigers will be better, but not enough.

 

[navamind]

I could see both the Twins and White Sox with over 90 wins -- the AL Central is going to be a 2-team race, I think. The Indians will still have pitching, but their offense will be much less productive without Lindor. You don't let someone like him go and expect to have a great offensive season. The Royals and Tigers will be better, but not enough.

Agreed. I think there will be two playoff teams out of the AL Central (Chicago and Minnesota). Indians still have pitching but I don't think it's nearly as deep and there's a huge dropoff from Bieber and the rest of the staff, and I'm not just saying that because he's one of the best pitchers in the league. I don't think they're that far off from contending again though, more likely 2022/2023.