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I'm not sure how many people have ever bothered to compare the performance of "FBS" teams with their records. For example do 8-5 G5 teams compare to 8-5 P5 teams favorably or not? I looked at the MWC and the AAC teams from 2020 to 2013 (when the AAC was founded) with respect to their performances vs P5 teams. I found 306 games played between the aforementioned conferences and P5 teams. Here is a breakdown:
When the G5 teams were 5 or more games ahead in the W/L column they basically won every time (27-1).
( e.g 13-0 UCF vs 4-8 Maryland then UCF is 8.5 games ahead)
When the G5 teams were 4.5 games ahead in the W/L column they won the majority of the games (10-4).
When the G5 teams were 3.5 to 4 games ahead in the W/L column their record was down to 8-5
When the G5 teams were 2.5 to games ahead in the W/L column they were 0.500 (14-14).
When the G5 teams were 2 games ahead in the W/L column they lost more than they won at 5-11.
When the G5 teams were even in the W/L column they were down to 3-13.
When the G5 teams were 0.5 to 1.5 games down in the W/L column they only won 4 out of 34 games (4-30).
When the G5 teams were 2 or more down in the W/L column they were 2-111!!!
I even pulled out the 32 P5 games for Cincinnati and UCF and analyzed them - same result or maybe a little worse.
When they are ahead 3.5 or more they are 9-2.
When they are ahead 2 to 2.5 they are 2-5.
When they are ahead 1.5 on down they are 3-11.
It looks like the G5 teams are on par with P5 teams to have 2 fewer win and 2 more losses
(e.g. 2014-Houston (8-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-7) where Houston won 35-34 or 2019-Central Florida (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (8-5) where Pittsburgh won 35-34).
When the G5 teams were 5 or more games ahead in the W/L column they basically won every time (27-1).
( e.g 13-0 UCF vs 4-8 Maryland then UCF is 8.5 games ahead)
When the G5 teams were 4.5 games ahead in the W/L column they won the majority of the games (10-4).
When the G5 teams were 3.5 to 4 games ahead in the W/L column their record was down to 8-5
When the G5 teams were 2.5 to games ahead in the W/L column they were 0.500 (14-14).
When the G5 teams were 2 games ahead in the W/L column they lost more than they won at 5-11.
When the G5 teams were even in the W/L column they were down to 3-13.
When the G5 teams were 0.5 to 1.5 games down in the W/L column they only won 4 out of 34 games (4-30).
When the G5 teams were 2 or more down in the W/L column they were 2-111!!!
I even pulled out the 32 P5 games for Cincinnati and UCF and analyzed them - same result or maybe a little worse.
When they are ahead 3.5 or more they are 9-2.
When they are ahead 2 to 2.5 they are 2-5.
When they are ahead 1.5 on down they are 3-11.
It looks like the G5 teams are on par with P5 teams to have 2 fewer win and 2 more losses
(e.g. 2014-Houston (8-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-7) where Houston won 35-34 or 2019-Central Florida (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (8-5) where Pittsburgh won 35-34).
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