OT: Corsi is Dead

[PuckinUgly57]

Decent article on the devolution of Corsi. At one time it was a happening trend but as teams figured out how to beat it it has become a dinosaur.

Analysis | Stop using Corsi to assess NHL teams. There are better options available.

They don't mention the Kings at all, who led the league in Corsi for 5 years straight but as we have seen they have ranked in the bottom two thirds of the league in GF in all those years except the lockout shortened 2012-13 season (10th). You'd think the writer would have because the Kings were the poster boy for how deceiving this stat was.

Dumbo used these analytics to build those juggernaut teams but the theory of puck possession leading to wins was pretty flawed to begin with because it doesn't assume "puck luck" and other intangible variables. Sure, you can assume you will get more goals the longer you have the puck but that doesn't mean anything if all you do is hold onto and take low percentage shots like LA did for years - cycle, cycle, cycle, sent to the point, shot.

Year SF/GF Rank
2012-13 12th/10th
2013-14 7th/26th
2014-15 10th/18th
2015-16 3rd/14th
2016-17 7th/22nd

You can see the rankings are all over the map, there is no direct correlation between how much you shoot and how much you score but as the article laid out there is a direct correlation between where you shoot and how much you score.

The Lightning number is insane on the scoring chance conversion rate, and as you can see even with the change in style the Kings are still average in the high quality scoring chance rate this season (SF 21st GF 16th) but it's an improvement over years past. I think this is a transition year with players unlearning what Sutter instilled so we may not get up to full speed until next season in my opinion in that department. Too many guys still do too many Sutter things.

Been saying this for years, it's the shot quality not shot quantity. Corsi will give you some of the information but shouldn't be used as a reference to back up a debate. I got really sick and tired of hearing this from Dumbo (and other teams, but he led the charge with it and brought it to the forefront) over the years leading up to his dismissal.

Finally...I was ahead of the curve for once.

=)~~

 

[davnlaguna]

Corsi was meant to better determine how much work a goalie had. Goalies were saying that they still had to defend missed shots and time puck was in their zone. People took that and flopped it to mean offense.

 

[Kings4OT]

Never been a fan either, like most of this stuff it only tells part of the story. I don't mind using it to gain some info, but I think it needs to be used with other stats and then finally actually watch what the fuck is going on.