Official 2016 Breakout Season Roster

[Omar 382]

Here's a roster of guys I think are going to have a breakout season. I'll limit it to 5 starters and 1 reliever.

C- Yasmani Grandal .250/.365/.410 3.2 WAR
1B- Jon Singleton .245/.350/.410 2.7 WAR
2B- Javier Baez .280/.370/.440 3.0 WAR
SS- Corey Seager .320/.390/.500 5.2 WAR
3B- Joey Gallo .245/.330/.460 2.1 WAR
LF- Domingo Santana .320/.390/.460 3.2 WAR
CF- Jackie Bradley Jr. .290/.360/.480 3.9 WAR
RF- Jorge Soler .255/.340/.420 2.1 WAR
SP- Carlos Martinez 3.00/3.20/3.25
RP- Tony Watson 1.80/.1.95/1.60

 

[Cedrique]

Here's a roster of guys I think are going to have a breakout season. I'll limit it to 5 starters and 1 reliever.

C- Yasmani Grandal .250/.365/.410 3.2 WAR
1B- Jon Singleton .245/.350/.410 2.7 WAR
2B- Javier Baez .280/.370/.440 3.0 WAR
SS- Corey Seager .320/.390/.500 5.2 WAR
3B- Joey Gallo .245/.330/.460 2.1 WAR
LF- Domingo Santana .320/.390/.460 3.2 WAR
CF- Jackie Bradley Jr. .290/.360/.480 3.9 WAR
RF- Jorge Soler .255/.340/.420 2.1 WAR
SP- Carlos Martinez 3.00/3.20/3.25
RP- Tony Watson 1.80/.1.95/1.60

Yeah, I agree with Bradley. He's a guy the Phillies could have had in the draft with their pick for losing Jayson Werth. But hey, we got Larry Greene instead and he has lots of "tools". I'm sure he'll be up in the majors soon.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not sure a rookie qualifies as a "breakout". In my mind, a "breakout" is a guy who has been around for a year or more but will "put it together" and become more.

Therefore, Seagar and Soler do not belong on the list, IMHO.

Further, I would argue that Grandal had his breakout last year.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Michael Conforto

 

[Omar 382]

I am not sure a rookie qualifies as a "breakout". In my mind, a "breakout" is a guy who has been around for a year or more but will "put it together" and become more.

Therefore, Seagar and Soler do not belong on the list, IMHO.

Further, I would argue that Grandal had his breakout last year.

Yeah, I guess "breakout" is left up to interpretation.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I have some trouble projecting a guy who struck out once every 2.5 ABs last year (his only MLB season) for a .320 BA.

 

[Omar 382]

I have some trouble projecting a guy who struck out once every 2.5 ABs last year (his only MLB season) for a .320 BA.

I'm not one to quibble about BA, but in stints at different leagues since he was drafted in 2012 with at least 100 PA, Seager has posted a batting average above .300 in 5 of his 7 different stints. He's not going to sport a .337 BA or a .387 BABIP, but I don't know that .320 BA is too far a stretch. Probably a BA around .295-.310 is a safer bet, but this is a breakout thread, so I'm going to air on the higher upside portion of the scale.

 

[calsnowskier]

How about Joe Panic finishing top 5 in the NL batting race? Does that count as a breakout, even though the guy is already considered one of the top 5 2B in the game?

 

[Omar 382]

How about Joe Panic finishing top 5 in the NL batting race? Does that count as a breakout, even though the guy is already considered one of the top 5 2B in the game?

I'm confused. It was a breakout in 2015. If he repeats it this season, it wouldn't be.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I'm not one to quibble about BA, but in stints at different leagues since he was drafted in 2012 with at least 100 PA, Seager has posted a batting average above .300 in 5 of his 7 different stints. He's not going to sport a .337 BA or a .387 BABIP, but I don't know that .320 BA is too far a stretch. Probably a BA around .295-.310 is a safer bet, but this is a breakout thread, so I'm going to air on the higher upside portion of the scale.

2012 wasn't his first season (and he wasn't drafted, he's foreign), you missed three seasons in that analysis.

I look at the same player and see a guy who's only topped .300 in 2 of 7 minor league seasons, both of those seasons occurring under very favorable hitting conditions. And he's done so while striking out once every 2.9 ABs. Hell, even last year while he was crushing the PCL he was still striking out once every 3.3 ABs.

I'm not saying that there definitely isn't a .320 hitter in there, I'm just saying that I don't think we'll see that hitter in 2016. For instance, if he were to cut his K rate by 20% that would be a siginificant improvement but that kind of improvement would still leave him needing to BABIP .400+ to hit .320. Like I said, maybe further down the road. Would be a hell of an improvement (and surprise) if it happened this year though.

 

[Omar 382]

2012 wasn't his first season (and he wasn't drafted, he's foreign), you missed three seasons in that analysis.

I look at the same player and see a guy who's only topped .300 in 2 of 7 minor league seasons, both of those seasons occurring under very favorable hitting conditions. And he's done so while striking out once every 2.9 ABs. Hell, even last year while he was crushing the PCL he was still striking out once every 3.3 ABs.

I'm not saying that there definitely isn't a .320 hitter in there, I'm just saying that I don't think we'll see that hitter in 2016. For instance, if he were to cut his K rate by 20% that would be a siginificant improvement but that kind of improvement would still leave him needing to BABIP .400+ to hit .320. Like I said, maybe further down the road. Would be a hell of an improvement (and surprise) if it happened this year though.

Oh shit! I was reading your post like what the fuck are you talking about... I was talking about Corey Seager, not Santana, who I also pegged to hit .320. I was going to say, Corey Seager sure isn't foreign, and I didn't miss any seasons.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Oh shit! I was reading your post like what the fuck are you talking about... I was talking about Corey Seager, not Santana, who I also pegged to hit .320. I was going to say, Corey Seager sure isn't foreign, and I didn't miss any seasons.

Ah I missed that you dropped Seager's name in the response too, sorry.

Yeah, I was talking about Santana. Don't see that happening.

 

[Omar 382]

Ah I missed that you dropped Seager's name in the response too, sorry.

Yeah, I was talking about Santana. Don't see that happening.

Santana is definitely a stretch now that I'm looking at it better. I still expect a big season out of him though

 

[romeo212000]

Here's a roster of guys I think are going to have a breakout season. I'll limit it to 5 starters and 1 reliever.

C- Yasmani Grandal .250/.365/.410 3.2 WAR
1B- Jon Singleton .245/.350/.410 2.7 WAR
2B- Javier Baez .280/.370/.440 3.0 WAR
SS- Corey Seager .320/.390/.500 5.2 WAR
3B- Joey Gallo .245/.330/.460 2.1 WAR
LF- Domingo Santana .320/.390/.460 3.2 WAR
CF- Jackie Bradley Jr. .290/.360/.480 3.9 WAR
RF- Jorge Soler .255/.340/.420 2.1 WAR
SP- Carlos Martinez 3.00/3.20/3.25
RP- Tony Watson 1.80/.1.95/1.60

May I ask where you see Joey Gallo breaking I tithe big league roster? I would suggest Lewis Brinson or Nomar Mazara are more likely options for Texas.

 

[da55bums]

Gallo is going to be a fish...he will be lucky to hit anything in the 2nd half after pitchers find the out pitch quite a few minor league pitchers found. They got to Joc Pederson in the 2nd half as well

Tony Watson? really late to his party.

 

[Bolts]

I thought Grandal had similar stats to those last year, looked it up and he did. Although his WAR was only 1.4. I'm not sure if Martinez and Watson would be breakouts, Martinez really broke out in 2015 and Watson has been very good for a couple years now. The rest I could see being breakouts even though I think you need more than a couple months of major league experience to actually have a "breakout" season.
If I had to replace those 3 I'd go with C James McCann of the Tigers(decent first full season, should improve with a year in the majors under his belt), SP Marcus Stroman of the Jays(good rookie season and great finish to 2015 after recovering from what was thought to be a season ending injury), and RP Carson Smith of the Red Sox(should be a key part of the improved Red Sox BP).
As for some possible Padre breakouts, I'd go with Cory Spangenberg and Wil Myers. Spangenberg had a very solid first full season and could be the leadoff hitter for them, while Myers obviously has had health issues but is still talented enough that if he actually kept his wrist healthy for a full season he could slug 25+ HR's.

 

[romeo212000]

Gallo is going to be a fish...he will be lucky to hit anything in the 2nd half after pitchers find the out pitch quite a few minor league pitchers found. They got to Joc Pederson in the 2nd half as well

Tony Watson? really late to his party.

This already happened last year. He'll adjust and be fine.

 

[romeo212000]

Gallo is going to be a fish...he will be lucky to hit anything in the 2nd half after pitchers find the out pitch quite a few minor league pitchers found. They got to Joc Pederson in the 2nd half as well

Tony Watson? really late to his party.

This already happened last year. He'll adjust and be fine.

Also, Gallo will be starting the season in AAA.

 

[tducey]

I think Seager's going to be a good 1 for the Dodgers.

 

[Omar 382]

Gallo is going to be a fish...he will be lucky to hit anything in the 2nd half after pitchers find the out pitch quite a few minor league pitchers found. They got to Joc Pederson in the 2nd half as well

Tony Watson? really late to his party.

Yeah, not a breakout in production per se, but maybe in recognition.