offense stats and where we stand

[skinsdad62]

• ohn Keim, ESPN Staff Writer

• Barry interview with ESPN 980 prompted an article on the defensive stats that mattered most to winning. Now it’s the offense’s turn. The defensive numbers were spread out in terms of importance, but points per game stood out most. Offensively? The Redskins are turning to a running game, but the numbers suggest the way to win is through the air – and by holding on to the ball.

Just as I did with the defense, I took a look at the last three years combined, trying to take more than just a one-year snapshot. I also took a look at more categories (third downs, red zone) because several people asked about those areas in regard to the defense.

Here’s a look:

Yards per game: Six of the top 10 teams finished with winning records, with Denver ranked first. Among the three teams under .500? Washington, at No. 7. Typically, six or seven of the top 10 teams in yards per game finish with winning records. The Redskins, again, are atypical. They were a combined 10th for the past two years when they posted a 7-25 record.

Alfred Morris and the Redskins were in the upper half of the league in yardage gained last season, but were not among the top scoring teams. And that explains a lot. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
Turnovers: This is the most important statistic for an offense (it was not for the defense). Seven of the top 10 teams the past three years combined have winning records. Of the bottom 14 teams, only two have winning records (the Redskins were 22nd). But this is a stat that must be broken down by season. In each of the last three years, of the top 10 teams with the fewest turnovers, nine posted winning records. The Redskins were first in 2012; they won 10 games. They’re a combined 30th the past two years; they won seven games combined. It’s not a coincidence.

Third-down conversions: Another key stat as eight of the top 10 teams the past three years have winning records, with both Denver and New England in the top five. The Redskins were 25th. Going year by year, the impact diminshes. In 2012, five of the top 10 had winning records; in 2013 it was six and last year it was seven.

Passing yards per game: Another pivotal stat, also indicative of what the NFL has become. Of the top 10 teams, seven have winning records for the past three seasons. The Redskins ranked last during this time for passing yards per game. They won 17 games. It matters.

Rushing yards per game: This one surprised me because it just didn’t factor into winning the way I thought it might. That’s not great news for the Redskins, who want to be more dominant on the ground. (They can still win this way and by rushing the ball, perhaps it cuts down on interceptions, etc. That feeds into winning.) Anyhow, three of the top 10 teams in rushing yards per game finished with winning records. The Redskins were third in this stretch – but Seattle and San Francisco were first and second. There’s your formula for a young quarterback: running game and defense. So, yes, it can still matter if you have the defense.

Sack percentage: This one measures the sacks per pass attempt and five of the top 10 teams had winning records. Three of the worst 10 also had winning records, including Seattle and San Francisco. The Redskins were 27th over the three seasons.

Points per game: Ultimately, this one matters a lot because, well, the point is to actually score. Eight of the top 10 had winning records, with Denver and New England first and second. The Redskins ranked 18th, which is why they weren’t really a good offense despite being seventh overall in yards per game. Broken down by year, eight of the top 10 teams each season finished with winning records. And, in 2013, all 10 were at least at .500.

Red-zone efficiency: A money area for quarterbacks and, indeed, in the past three seasons, seven of the top 10 teams had winning records (the Redskins ranked 18th). But by individual seasons, it’s not as telling. In 2012, six of the top 10 had winning records, led by New England. In 2013, it was four (with Denver first) and in 2014, there were five – but Oakland was first and three of the top five posted losing records.

here are some stats we need to improve on