Niners Chiefs betting thread

[msgkings322]

Hey @droider you lunatic:

https://www.si.com/gambling/2020/01/20/super-bowl-liv-odds-trends-preview


"The early look-ahead line last week listed Kansas City as 2.5-point favorites in a potential matchup with San Francisco. However, the books adjusted the opening line, thanks in part to the dominance the 49ers displayed over the Packers, and instead went with Kansas City being favored by one point.

As for the game's total, it’s not hard to envision San Francisco scoring two-plus rushing touchdowns with the way their ground game is rolling. Also, Patrick Mahomes should have no problem throwing two or more passing touchdowns, which is why the total moved up 1.5 points from its opening of 52 within minutes and now stands at 53.5."

Still think the line will end up SF -2.5 or -3?

 

[CaptainStubing]

probably wouldn't touch the spread on this one but 52 was way too low for this match-up, that's why it moved up so quickly.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Feeling Chiefs -1.5 and the over are the plays here.

Too close for this to be a worthy betting venture though, imo; though I think the over should be tempting if it’s only 52.

 

[calsnowskier]

SportsHoopla Bookie should offer the game daily with whatever the line is that day. Offer some actual betting strategy to the whole thing...

 

[SteelersPride]

Think it will move to San Fran a bit, then sharp money late on kc

 

[msgkings322]

Think it will move to San Fran a bit, then sharp money late on kc

Again, one of you fools courts the wrath of @droider

 

[msgkings322]

probably wouldn't touch the spread on this one but 52 was way too low for this match-up, that's why it moved up so quickly.

Yeah 52 gets you a push with a final of 28-24, but you lose with 53 or more

 

[Clayton]

Imo, the only way it hits the Under is if the Chiefs get blown out.

 

[msgkings322]

Imo, the only way it hits the Under is if the Chiefs get blown out.

Right, in some pretty crazy scenario like Mahomes breaking his leg in the first quarter, maybe the Niners roll 31-14. I can't see them holding Mahomes under 20 but we'll see!

 

[Clayton]

Right, in some pretty crazy scenario like Mahomes breaking his leg in the first quarter, maybe the Niners roll 31-14. I can't see them holding Mahomes under 20 but we'll see!

Chiefs were held to 13 points once this season and that was against the Colts and the Chiefs had a whole mess of issues and injuries. Its possible but then you have the other 17 games that would say that it isnt likely.

Titans did get 24 against KC so potentially a 'ball control' run offense of SF could score about 24 and maybe hold KC to a FG where they scored a TD. 31-24 KC still gets to 55. If KC turns the ball over because of SF pass rush then that might add points to SF while subtracting from KC.

Then you have the shootout possibility. SF scripts a whole ton of no-huddle to keep KC in the wrong personnel and their offense moves the ball well. KC drops fewer footballs in better weather and moves the ball well. You could see 75+ points.

I guess that also leaves the 'both teams have nerves and the coaches really snuff everything out on defense' scenario. That could get the Under. I'm just not sure thats a 'thing' as I think both teams would adjust quickly.

 

[handicappers]

Right, in some pretty crazy scenario like Mahomes breaking his leg in the first quarter, maybe the Niners roll 31-14. I can't see them holding Mahomes under 20 but we'll see!

I'd rather Jimmy G suffer the broken leg than Mahomes. He's nicer.

 

[SteelersPride]

"The number that should have the most variance throughout the next two weeks is the over/under. At 52.5, it is tied for the highest total of any playoff game so far this year. However, these two teams finished seventh and eighth respectively in terms of PPG allowed in the regular season. "


suprisingly betting line has been steady

 

[msgkings322]

Hey @droider has the line moved to SF -3 yet?