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NFL over/under predictions: 32 picks for fantasy and win totals - ESPN Insid


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NFL over/under predictions: 32 picks for fantasy and win totals

Will the defending Super Bowl champs New England Patriots eclipse 11 wins in 2019? Or, will Arizona Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray pass for more than 2,940 yards in coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense?

Caesars Sportsbook supplied ESPN with odds for 32 over/unders for the 2019 season. We then had NFL Nation reporters provide their insights and pick a side. These hypothetical over/unders have been updated as of June 15, 2019.


Dallas Cowboys - Over/under 6.5 touchdowns for wide receiver Amari Cooper?
Over. Cooper led the Cowboys in touchdown catches last season with six and played in only nine games. He will be the focal point of the offense and his connection with a full offseason of work with quarterback Dak Prescott appears to have grown even more. He is moving all over the formation and is going in motion more. The Cowboys plan to get him the ball a ton of different ways. He might not be as dynamic in terms of touchdowns as Dez Bryant was from 2012 through 2014, but he will have more than 6.5 touchdowns in 2019. If he doesn't, then something went badly for the Cowboys. -- Todd Archer​

New York Giants - Over/under 5.5 starts for rookie quarterback Daniel Jones?
Under. It's hard to imagine the Giants making the switch from veteran Eli Manning to Jones unless they are out of the playoff picture. And this year the early season schedule isn't anywhere near as daunting, so Jones probably will pick up more from the sideline in Year 1. -- Jordan Raanan​

Philadelphia Eagles
- Over/under 3,520 passing yards for quarterback Carson Wentz?
Over. Wentz was on pace for over 4,000 yards in each of the past two seasons before being sidelined by injuries. Really, this is a question about whether he's going to stay on the field for 13-plus games this season. The bet here is that he does. He looks as healthy as we've seen him since 2017, has made adjustments to his diet and workout regimen, and appears wiser in terms of play approach after suffering season-ending injuries in back-to-back seasons. -- Tim McManus​

Washington Redskins - Over/under 8.5 starts for rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins?
Over. Barely. In an ideal world, the Redskins would take the under -- mainly because, while they see the talent, they also see the big steps he still must take. However, he's not playing behind a proven starter in Alex Smith. Rather, the Redskins have Colt McCoy, who hasn't started more than four games in a season since 2011 (he has been hurt multiple times in five seasons with Washington). They also have Case Keenum, who has started 30 games the past two years combined but is with his third team in three years. He's also learning a new offense. These factors, plus a difficult early schedule could put the Redskins in an early hole -- and produce pressure to play the more-talented youngster. -- John Keim​


Chicago Bears - Over/under 9.5 sacks for Khalil Mack?
Over. Mack will always earn the most attention from opposing offenses, but he's borderline unstoppable. Plus, Mack has the luxury of having an entire offseason and training camp with the Bears. Last season, Mack literally showed up Week 1 and still dominated. Mack's second year in a Bears' uniform is expected to be even better. -- Jeff Dickerson​

Detroit Lions
- Over/under 908.5 rushing yards for Kerryon Johnson?
Over. There are two concerns here when it comes to Johnson hitting that number and they have nothing to do with his talent. The first is how the Lions are going to use their running backs. Detroit's coaches have already shown they don't necessarily want to make Johnson a 25-to-30 carry per game back, which means he'll be splitting carries with someone -- probably C.J. Anderson or Zach Zenner. He also figures to come off the field on some third downs in favor of Theo Riddick. He would need 250 carries (a little over 15 per game) and average 4.0 yards per carry to hit 1,000 yards this season. It's possible, but the Lions' running back usage along with Johnson being available for 16 games would be the two concerns. He should have a good season, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him around 1,500-1,600 total yards from scrimmage. -- Michael Rothstein​

Green Bay Packers - Over/under nine wins for the Packers?
Push. Mike McCarthy won eight games in his first season as head coach (2006) and had to win his last four to do it. Ray Rhodes won eight games in his first (and only) season (1999). Mike Holmgren (1992) and Mike Sherman (2000) each won nine. All four had Brett Favre as their quarterback. Yes, Matt LaFleur has Aaron Rodgers, but his is a completely new offensive system and it's going to take time for things to come together. This has 9-7 written all over it. -- Rob Demovsky​

Minnesota Vikings - Over/under 15.5 total turnovers for quarterback Kirk Cousins?
Over. Cousins led all QBs in 2018 in fumbles lost (seven) and threw 10 interceptions in his first season as a Viking, a figure he has hovered around each season as a full-time starter since 2015. Year 2 should yield better results for Cousins in Minnesota with his familiarity in a system tailored to his strengths, along with a reworked offensive line to protect him. But timing, pocket presence and sensing the pass rush are things the QB is solely responsible for -- things that have often resulted in him turning the ball over. Eight years into his NFL career, it might be difficult for Cousins to break some of the habits that have haunted him. Hopefully he can make up for some of these flaws with other areas of his game. -- Courtney Cronin​


Atlanta Falcons - Over/under 8.5 interceptions for quarterback Matt Ryan?
Over. This is not a knock on Ryan, either. He's likely to have more pass attempts with Dirk Koetter back as his offensive coordinator, which means more chances to get picked. When Koetter was the O-coordinator from 2012 to 2014, Ryan averaged 631 pass attempts and 15 interceptions per season. Ryan still could throw under 10 interceptions coming off a season where he threw only seven in 608 attempts. -- Vaughn McClure​

Carolina Panthers - Over/under 1,720 rushing and receiving yards for Christian McCaffrey?
Over. The Panthers would like to get McCaffrey a break from taking 91.3% of the snaps as he did last season. In the same breath, they believe he can become the third player in NFL history to have 1,000 yards receiving and rushing in the same season. McCaffrey says he believes he can do that, too. He has worked to get stronger and faster during the offseason to improve yards after contact and inside running. He's integral to everything the Panthers do offensively. -- David Newton​

New Orleans Saints - Over/under 3,840 passing yards for quarterback Drew Brees?
Over. This bet really depends on whether you're confident Brees will start at least 15 games at age 40. But if he plays a full season, he should hit this mark. The NFL's all-time passing yardage leader no longer throws for 5,000 yards every season (especially since the Saints have been playing with leads over the past two seasons instead of playing catch-up). But even though his yardage numbers have dropped considerably, he still threw for 4,334 yards in 2017 and 3,992 in only 15 games played in 2018. -- Mike Triplett​

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/under 14.5 starts for quarterback Jameis Winston?
Over. Before last season's three-game suspension and the three games he missed because of an injury in 2017, Winston started 45 consecutive games (2014 at Florida State, 2015-2016 in the NFL). The one issue he could run into is the fact the Bucs didn't make any significant upgrades to their offensive line and coach Bruce Arians is known for utilizing an empty backfield and attacking deep downfield, meaning there's no running back to pick up an extra blitzer, often subjecting the quarterback to more hits. -- Jenna Laine​


Arizona Cardinals - Over/under 2,940 passing yards for rookie quarterback Kyler Murray?
Over. If Kliff Kingsbury's offense is even half of what we expect it to be, then Murray should light up the stat sheet. The one benefit Murray will have over his predecessor, Josh Rosen, is that Murray enters a stable offensive philosophy whereas Rosen, well, didn't. Murray's arm strength has been undervalued, running back David Johnson said, so the expectation is that Murray, who will fit seamlessly into Kingsbury's Air Raid scheme, will take advantage of the spread passing system that he has played in since he was in eighth grade, which will lead to a lot of passing yards. -- Josh Weinfuss​

Los Angeles Rams - Over/under 10.5 wins for the Rams?
Under. The Rams remain a Super Bowl contender and can clinch a division title for a third consecutive season. However, their win total could be down as they play in an improved NFC West and they will travel to the East Coast three times. Also, the Rams play a game in London, quarterback Jared Goff will operate behind an offensive line that will feature two first-time starters, and questions remain about the status of running back Todd Gurley and his left knee. -- Lindsey Thiry​

San Francisco 49ers - Over/under eight wins for the 49ers?
Push. The Niners have so many questions, be it key players returning from injury, secondary issues, wide receiver production and more, that it makes predicting an outcome to this season exceedingly difficult. If quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo bounces back and plays to his potential, it could offset anything else that might not come through, and if San Francisco gets more positive answers than expected, it could hit the over. The same is true if it gets more negative responses and the under. For now, at least, somewhere in the middle feels right and it doesn't get any more in the middle than a .500 record. -- Nick Wagoner​

Seattle Seahawks - Over/under 880.5 receiving yards for the Seahawks' leading receiver?
Over. But it could be close. Because the Seahawks are one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, the only way Tyler Lockett will sniff 1,000 receiving yards is if he makes hay on deep play-action passes the way he did in 2018 while averaging a career-best 16.9 yards per catch. He'll have to do that without Doug Baldwin commanding attention from the defense. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will need to move Lockett around to create favorable matchups, and Lockett will need others such as rookie DK Metcalf to give opposing defenses someone else to worry about. -- Brady Henderson​


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Buffalo Bills - Over/under a 52.0 completion percentage for quarterback Josh Allen?
Over. Allen completed 52.8% of his passes last season, which was the third-worst rate of any quarterback since 2009 with at least 320 pass attempts in a season. Dropping below 52.0% -- joining Derek Anderson in 2010 and Blaine Gabbert in 2011 in that territory since 2009 -- would put Allen's future in Buffalo in jeopardy, but there is enough reason to believe Allen can improve in 2019. He could have four new offensive line starters in front of him in addition to two new receivers (John Brown and Cole Beasley) and potentially an all-new group of tight ends headlined by Tyler Kroft and third-round rookie Dawson Knox. -- Mike Rodak​

Miami Dolphins - Over/under 12.5 starts for quarterback Josh Rosen?
Under. I would put Ryan Fitzpatrick as the favorite to win the Dolphins' starting job in Week 1 because of his play, leadership and early chemistry with the offense. Rosen will get his opportunity because of Fitzpatrick's knack for interceptions, and the Dolphins' need to see the 22-year-old on the field before the 2020 draft, but my prediction is Fitzpatrick gets at least the first four games of the season if he wins the job in camp. Miami has a Week 5 bye, making Week 6 vs. Washington (setting Rosen up for 12 starts) an early possibility spot for a QB switch if Fitzpatrick and Dolphins struggle out the gate. Eight to 12 starts would be my sweet spot for Rosen this season. -- Cameron Wolfe​

New England Patriots - Over/under 11 wins for the Patriots?
Over. In a reflection of how high the bar has been raised in New England, an 11-win season might actually qualify as a disappointment to some. While history doesn't always provide the answer, I used it as a guide in this case. The last time the Patriots had fewer than 11 wins was the 2009 season, when they were 10-6. -- Mike Reiss​

New York Jets - Over/under 1,025 rushing yards for Le'Veon Bell?
Over. Bell has averaged 86 yards per game in his career, which equates to 1,376 over 16 games. He might not put up those numbers in New York -- his offensive line isn't as good as the one he had in Pittsburgh -- but he should be able to exceed 1,025 if he stays healthy. That's the question: How will his body react after sitting out an entire season? -- Rich Cimini​


Baltimore Ravens - Over/under 2,679.5 passing yards for quarterback Lamar Jackson?
Under. If this was 2,679 total yards, it would be a slam dunk to take the over. To get to that number passing, Jackson would need to throw for an average of 167 yards per game. He surpassed that three times in seven starts last season. But you can't rule out Jackson getting close to that number. Michael Vick, who has been the most popular comparable to Jackson, threw for 2,936 yards in his second season. -- Jamison Hensley​

Cincinnati Bengals - Over/under 1,065 rushing yards for Joe Mixon?
Over. Part of this is going to depend on how well the offensive line holds up, but Mixon was the AFC's leading rusher despite missing two games after having a procedure done on his knee. Although there is some concern with Mixon being limited in organized team activities and first-round pick, tackle Jonah Williams, out with an undisclosed injury, there's no reason to believe Mixon shouldn't have an even better season in 2019 if everyone stays healthy. -- Katherine Terrell​

Cleveland Browns - Over/under nine wins for the Browns?
Over. Behind Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett, the Browns finally have the talent -- on both sides of the ball -- to reach double-digit wins. The AFC North remains rugged, but the rest of the schedule is rather forgiving for a team with a rather high ceiling. -- Jake Trotter​

Pittsburgh Steelers - Over/under 86.5 tackles for Devin Bush?
Over. This is hardly a lay-up in a defense that has three capable inside linebackers in the mix. Veteran Vince Williams and free-agent addition Mark Barron will have roles. But the stage is set for Bush to become an every-down player, and by the looks of his spring workouts, he's eager to meet that challenge. Plus, Williams and Ryan Shazier each surpassed that over/under in 2017. The defense is built on generating pressure, which opens tackling lanes for Bush up the middle. -- Jeremy Fowler​


Houston Texans - Over/under 47.5 times sacked for quarterback Deshaun Watson?
Over. The Texans took steps to improving the offensive line that gave up 62 sacks last season, but given the way Watson plays -- his average time to throw last season was 3.01 seconds, which ranked third slowest among passer-rating qualified passers -- he is still likely to get hit quite a few times. Houston hopes draft picks Tytus Howard (No. 23) and Max Scharping (No. 55) can bolster the line, but I can see the team still giving up an average of more than three sacks a game. -- Sarah Barshop​

Indianapolis Colts - Over/under on the Colts giving up 23.5 points per game on defense?
Under. And it's under by not a lot. The overachieving Colts defense was 10th in points allowed (21.5) last season and they return 10 of 11 starters on that side of the ball to go with the addition of pass-rusher Justin Houston and cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, who was selected in the second round of the draft. So how can the Colts expect to give up more points in 2019 than they did all of last season? The quarterback competition will be a lot tougher. They'll face Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Drew Brees, to name a few. The Colts have five games against teams that were in the top 10 in scoring last season and nine games against teams that finished in the top 15 in that category. -- Mike Wells​

Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/under 14.5 starts for quarterback Nick Foles?
Under. It's hard to pick the over because Foles has not started more than 11 games in either of the two years in which he was his team's unquestioned starter going into the season. A broken collarbone cut short his season after eight games in Philadelphia in 2014, and he was benched early in the season after struggling in St. Louis in 2015. Foles is a more seasoned quarterback now after the past two seasons with the Eagles, and he's not going to get benched because the Jaguars have nothing behind him (plus they guaranteed him $50.125 million), but injuries are tough to predict. Taking the under is a safer bet. -- Michael DiRocco​

Tennessee Titans - Over/under 3.5 starts for quarterback Ryan Tannehill?
Under. Tannehill was brought in as an insurance option if Marcus Mariota gets hurt. We all know what happens when you choose the best insurance. You rarely get to utilize the policy. Mariota took steps to bulk up this offseason so he can endure a full NFL season, something he has yet to do in his pro career. It's likely he'll miss a game or two. But, Mariota has better protection up front and weapons on offense that should allow him to get rid of the football before taking hits in the pocket. -- Turron Davenport​


Denver Broncos - Over/under 8.5 starts for rookie quarterback Drew Lock?
Under. President of football operations/general manager John Elway has said it, coach Vic Fangio has said it. Joe Flacco is the starter and will be unless he is injured. And if he was injured and missed a few games, every indication this offseason is that Flacco would simply move back in the lineup when healed. Lock showed plenty of athleticism in the team's practices, but he also showed just how much work he has to do before he can be in the lineup. His accuracy wavers some, as does his release point, and when the Broncos closed out their mandatory minicamp Lock hadn't moved unquestionably ahead of Kevin Hogan for the No. 2 job. Lock is certainly expected to hold that No. 2 job when the regular season opens, but he's not on track to be considered as the starter in 2019 unless the season somehow spins out of control by Thanksgiving and he has shown plenty of improvement. -- Jeff Legwold​

Kansas City Chiefs - Over/under 35.5 total touchdowns for quarterback Patrick Mahomes?
Over. Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes last season. Is he really going to decline by at least 15, or about one per game, during the 2019 season? Not a chance -- unless he misses significant time because of an injury. -- Adam Teicher​

Los Angeles Chargers - Over/under 14.5 combined sacks for Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram?
Over. This edge rushing duo combined for 12.5 sacks last season, but Bosa missed nine games because of a foot injury. However, in 2017 a healthy Bosa and Ingram combined for 23 sacks. Both players had a productive offseason from a health standpoint and should stay out of the training room. Along with that, the Chargers will probably play from ahead more often this season -- creating more pass-rush opportunities -- so the over is the best play here. -- Eric D. Williams​

Oakland Raiders - Over/under 1,070 receiving yards for wide receiver Antonio Brown?
Over. Jared Cook led the Raiders with 896 receiving yards last season, and he is a tight end -- a versatile player, no doubt, but still a tight end. Brown is a special wide receiver who might have had more than 1,070 receiving yards in OTAs and minicamp alone. Yeah, he was torching Raiders DBs. Of course, this all depends upon quarterback Derek Carr having the time to deliver the ball to Brown, and with a rebuilt offensive line that should not be an issue. Brown has not had fewer than 1,000 yards receiving since 2012, when he went for 787 yards in 13 games for the Steelers. -- Paul Gutierrez​