NFL Draft

[deep9er]

Ok its way too early to be looking at the draft, especially for 49er fans. However, i was curious with the Ran Carthon news.

https://www.************.com/articles/166020-49ers-projected-own-selections-heading-into-2023-draft/

We will have two 3rd round comps plus another for Carthon. This site PROJECTS a total of 11 picks, 4 of our own plus 7 Comps. Seven (7) comp picks seem high but whatever, a bunch are 7th rounders. I don't think 7th rounders are typically used for trading up?

BTW - I had thought Saleh brought two comps and Mayhew brought two MORE, but since they left in the same year its three (3) total. IF Ryans is hired away now, we get three 3rd round comps for Carthon and Ryans total.

 

[deep9er]

This projection of comp picks looks reasonable, then add one more Round 3 for Carthon:

Projected compensatory picks: Two in Round 3; one in Round 5; one in Round 7.

Key free-agent losses: Laken Tomlinson (Jets), D.J. Jones (Broncos), Arden Key (Jaguars).

Key free-agent addition: Charvarius Ward.



Comp-pick analysis: The 49ers will receive the second of two third-rounders awarded for Mike McDaniel being hired as Dolphins head coach this offseason and the third of three third-rounders awarded for losing both Robert Saleh (Jets head coach) and Martin Mayhew (Commanders GM) in 2021. They will also take home a fifth for Jones and a likely seventh-round pick for Key, provided he makes the Jaguars -- which is very likely. The departure of Tomlinson and addition of Ward cancel each other out in terms of compensatory-pick eligibility.

 

[deep9er]

Taken from the article above:


Here are the non-compensatory picks the 49ers own:

• Round 5
• Round 5 (Dolphins via Jeff Wilson Jr. trade)
• Round 7
• Round 7 (Broncos via Jonas Griffith trade)

Here are the compensatory picks the 49ers are expected to receive. It's worth noting that the player compensatory picks are based on Over The Cap's projections, and should not be considered official.

• Round 3 (Robert Saleh/Martin Mayhew HC/GM hires)
• Round 3 (Mike McDaniel HC hire)
• Round 3 (Ran Carthon GM hire)
• Round 5 (D.J. Jones to Broncos)
• Round 6 (Arden Key to Jaguars)
• Round 7 (Raheem Mostert to Dolphins)
• Round 7 (K'Waun Williams to Broncos)

That's 11 total draft picks that are expected for the 49ers.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Between the Lance and CMC trades, we don’t have any picks in rounds 1 or 2, but with the comps and trades, we’ve definitely got some picks left. 3 picks in Rd 3 and 3 more in Rd 5 isn't nothing. Considering the depth of the team, I coudl see us using some of those picks to trade up.

Having 3 picks at the end of rd 3 is going to be weird. These comps could all line up to give us 2 or 3 picks in a row.

It's better for us, pick-wise, if Ryans leaves next year. That way we'd get 2 comps for Carthon and 2 for Ryans, but it's almost a foregone conclusion that some team is going to hire him away this season. I'd expect some teams to start hiring HCs in the next week or so.

 

[deep9er]

Between the Lance and CMC trades, we don’t have any picks in rounds 1 or 2, but with the comps and trades, we’ve definitely got some picks left. 3 picks in Rd 3 and 3 more in Rd 5 isn't nothing. Considering the depth of the team, I coudl see us using some of those picks to trade up.

Having 3 picks at the end of rd 3 is going to be weird. These comps could all line up to give us 2 or 3 picks in a row.

It's better for us, pick-wise, if Ryans leaves next year. That way we'd get 2 comps for Carthon and 2 for Ryans, but it's almost a foregone conclusion that some team is going to hire him away this season. I'd expect some teams to start hiring HCs in the next week or so.

Yes, with the quality of this team, it makes sense to trade up and if not, trade into the following draft. It won't be "blockbuster" type trades, but it makes better use of this capital.

But i'm thinking move up higher in Round 3 should you see a guy fall? He may fall that far because of scheme fit plus a little for quantity at that position. If not, i'm ok just standing pat and picking at the end of Round 3.

We don't have enough to get into the 1st round nor early 2nd round, that takes too much capital.

 

[deep9er]

Whelp, if there's a small consolation and i do mean small, at least we didn't trade away a high 1st round draft pick. We're not Denver by any stretch (salt in the wounds) but unfortunately for us, they gave it to Seattle.

There is no question Trey Lance is now the No. 1 QB. If he was good enough to be No. 1 entering this season, no reason he won't be next. Obviously, we HAVE to find out what we have after giving up all that draft capital.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Whelp, if there's a small consolation and i do mean small, at least we didn't trade away a high 1st round draft pick. We're not Denver by any stretch (salt in the wounds) but unfortunately for us, they gave it to Seattle.

That is a small consolation. At least when we struggle this coming season we'll get to keep our own middle of the road 1st rd pick. Why would we struggle? Lance and a very tough-looking schedule.

With 3 3rd rd picks, I'll be surprised not to see us trade up some, but without any early rd picks, it's gonna make the post free agency period of the offseason a little boring around here.

There is no question Trey Lance is now the No. 1 QB. If he was good enough to be No. 1 entering this season, no reason he won't be next. Obviously, we HAVE to find out what we have after giving up all that draft capital.

He wasn't good enough to enter the season as #1. The job was handed to him without a competition. Even the coach intimated that he wasn't ready, just "as ready as he'll get."

 

[deep9er]

That is a small consolation. At least when we struggle this coming season we'll get to keep our own middle of the road 1st rd pick. Why would we struggle? Lance and a very tough-looking schedule.

With 3 3rd rd picks, I'll be surprised not to see us trade up some, but without any early rd picks, it's gonna make the post free agency period of the offseason a little boring around here.

He wasn't good enough to enter the season as #1. The job was handed to him without a competition. Even the coach intimated that he wasn't ready, just "as ready as he'll get."

Yes, the NFC West champ typically gets a tougher schedule. Last season the Rams had two tougher games than the 49ers and i'd expect the same treatment this season. No doubt the tougher schedule plus Trey Lance will affect our record, but don't see us falling THAT far? If Lance didn't get hurt, think we'd be 4-3 or worse case 3-4 after 7 games? At that point he'd have more game reps and improving game over game, we would've won the West anyway.

I'd be ok trading up once even if it doesn't get into Round 2. If someone falls to the early 3rd, go get him.

If Lance never has a chance to gain reps, then he'll always be "as ready as he'll get"? They made a mega-trade two drafts ago and they should see it thru. Purdy WAS a reason not to see it thru, but that situation obviously changed. John Chapman showed a good footage of Lance to date, he HAS made progress and has improved his 'short' throws.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Depending on the Free Agency, the Niners initial draft needs are OT, S, DT, and IOL.

 

[deep9er]

Depending on the Free Agency, the Niners initial draft needs are OT, S, DT, and IOL.

We could definitely use an OT cause not expecting McGlinchey to remain, he'll command a good contract we likely can't match. There won't be a top OT prospect at the end of the 3rd so at best an early 3rd round prospect? Yes i know even the early 3rd doesn't have good OT prospects, but we can't trade up very much. We can only wait and see if any OT is even worth it?

Similarly with Brendel, he'll get a contract offer we likely can't match. We have a better chance of drafting a top C in Round 3.

Overall, this is where we REALLY start to mortgage the future. In order to sign some free agents, there'll be several restructures. We're not even including Bosa yet.

 

[Groo]

I know he's on the smaller size but what do you guys think of Ohio St. C Luke Wypler?

Luke Wypler

Ohio State Buckeyes

ohiostatebuckeyes.com

I always find it a plus when I know they also wrestle

 

[deep9er]

I know he's on the smaller size but what do you guys think of Ohio St. C Luke Wypler?

Luke Wypler

Ohio State Buckeyes

ohiostatebuckeyes.com

I always find it a plus when I know they also wrestle

His "resume" certainly qualifies him and being 'small' doesn't necessarily mean he can't play 'bigger'.

If he had ideal size whatever that is for Centers, we wouldn't be able to draft him.

He's almost the same size as Brendel, an inch shorter.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

The NFL officially awarded the comp picks this year.

• Round 3, Pick 99 (Compensatory)
• Round 3, Pick 101 (Compensatory)
• Round 3, Pick 102 (Compensatory)
• Round 5, Pick 155 (via Dolphins)
• Round 5, Pick 164
• Round 5, Pick 173 (Compensatory)
• Round 6, Pick 216 (Compensatory)
• Round 7, Pick 222 (via Broncos)
• Round 7, Pick 247
• Round 7, Pick 253 (Compensatory)
• Round 7, Pick 255 (Compensatory)

Considering that we don't have any picks in rds 1 or 2, we'll have to make these count.

 

[deep9er]

The NFL officially awarded the comp picks this year.

• Round 3, Pick 99 (Compensatory)
• Round 3, Pick 101 (Compensatory)
• Round 3, Pick 102 (Compensatory)
• Round 5, Pick 155 (via Dolphins)
• Round 5, Pick 164
• Round 5, Pick 173 (Compensatory)
• Round 6, Pick 216 (Compensatory)
• Round 7, Pick 222 (via Broncos)
• Round 7, Pick 247
• Round 7, Pick 253 (Compensatory)
• Round 7, Pick 255 (Compensatory)

Considering that we don't have any picks in rds 1 or 2, we'll have to make these count.

No doubt and since this draft is apparently deeper in positions we need, there's a decent chance the 3rd rounders do well. Not saying instant starters, but starters not far down the road.

BTW - Don't like "forcing" Need picks, if there is clear talent left on the board, take the better talent. Even if its not a position of Need it could very well be via injury or next year's free agency. Drafting is for 4 years, not for this coming season.

Free Agency has yet to play out but on the surface we can't fit 11 draft picks on this roster. At the same time, nobody is interested in trading for 7th rounders, oh well.

 

[deep9er]

New 49ers​

• QB Sam Darnold (Panthers, 1-yr, $4.5M)
• DT Javon Hargrave (Eagles, 4-yr, $84M)

Returning 49ers​

• C Jake Brendel (UFA, 4-yr)
• FS Tashaun Gipson (UFA, 1-yr, $2.9M, $2.17M guaranteed)
• DT Kevin Givens (RFA, 1-yr, $2.1M)
• WR Jauan Jennings (ERFA, 1-yr deal tendered)*
• T Colton McKivitz (RFA, 2-yr, $5.8M extension)
• LS Taybor Pepper (UFA, 3-yr extension)

Ok progress. We can always improve at Center and RT but at least its not 'bare' in Brendel and McKivitz. Looks like we're set to go BPA in Round 3, and might even remain at 99, 101, and 102? We certainly have needs but don't have a dire need.

I'm ok if they trade up for say an OT, looking ahead on TW and should McKivitz struggle? We can't trade way up, but should a prospect fall to the 3rd round, do it. We can't fit all 11 rookies.

 

[deep9er]

Here’s a quick look at the three players mocked to the 49ers late in the third round:

Round 3, Pick 99 | OT Carter Warren, Pittsburgh​

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Warren might be a project, but he’s definitely a player who projects as an offensive tackle in the NFL. The 49ers should be prioritizing tackle depth if they’re going to draft an offensive lineman. Warren is 6-6, 311 pounds with a massive wingspan. He was a full-time starter for four years and started 39 of the 40 games he played for the Panthers. With Colton McKivitz and Jaylon Moore as the only real options to replace Mike McGlinchey at right tackle, Warren would have a chance to make a big impact right away.

Round 3, Pick 101 | S Trey Dean III, Florida​

[Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]
Safety is another need for the 49ers after Jimmie Ward exited in free agency and Tashaun Gipson signed on for just one year. Dean has really good size at 6-2, 200 pounds. His 4.75-second 40-yard dash doesn’t quite line up with the athleticism he shows on the field. It does bring up questions about whether he can play the free safety spot alongside Talanoa Hufanga. Dean was a two-year starter for the Gators and a special teams standout during the first part of his college career. In 62 games he posted 259 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.0 sacks, four interceptions, 24 pass breakups, one forced fumble and three fumble recoveries.

Round 3, Pick 102 | TE Cameron Latu, Alabama​

Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports
Latu would be a really nice selection to round out a 49ers tight end room that’s a little bit thin. San Francisco has with limited success been searching for a second pass-catching TE. Latu fits that bill, but he’s also a willing in-line blocker, which is key for what 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan needs from that spot. While Latu was involved on offense and special teams his first two non-redshirt years with the Crimson Tide, he didn’t catch a pass until his third year. Over those third and fourth seasons he posted 56 catches for 787 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s a good athlete who moves well in space and would make a quick push for playing time in an offense that could use another receiving threat at TE.

 

[deep9er]

We're counting down to draft day, Friday for us. Just a few general opinions on this draft:

1. Go essentially BPA because we're at the very end of Round 3. There is a slight eye on Need in Round 3, but we're really looking to next season and BPA's have a higher chance of panning out. Anyone who contributes this season is gravy.
2. Next season, you want to look at this draft class to find multiple picks that'll play. Whether starter, role player, or solid back-up, this class will HAVE to contribute next season.
3. Ok with one trade up but not too far up, because the depth of this draft seems to suit us well, even where we are. Lets not trade away too many picks now.
4. Not in favor of trading Lance or Aiyuk but IF we do i'd think it'll be for an Edge or LT (future LT). TW isn't going to play much longer and we have questions at RT. We could use quality LT prospect 'developing' now, even if starting out on the bench.
5. If no trade up, i'm ok trading a few picks into 2024, but not with one of the 3rd rounders.

Prefer we draft players who have a stronger chance of being starters. Even if not at the positions of Need, look ahead to the next 3 seasons because we'll start to shed large contracts.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

We're counting down to draft day, Friday for us. Just a few general opinions on this draft:

1. Go essentially BPA because we're at the very end of Round 3. There is a slight eye on Need in Round 3, but we're really looking to next season and BPA's have a higher chance of panning out. Anyone who contributes this season is gravy.
2. Next season, you want to look at this draft class to find multiple picks that'll play. Whether starter, role player, or solid back-up, this class will HAVE to contribute next season.
3. Ok with one trade up but not too far up, because the depth of this draft seems to suit us well, even where we are. Lets not trade away too many picks now.
4. Not in favor of trading Lance or Aiyuk but IF we do i'd think it'll be for an Edge or LT (future LT). TW isn't going to play much longer and we have questions at RT. We could use quality LT prospect 'developing' now, even if starting out on the bench.
5. If no trade up, i'm ok trading a few picks into 2024, but not with one of the 3rd rounders.

Prefer we draft players who have a stronger chance of being starters. Even if not at the positions of Need, look ahead to the next 3 seasons because we'll start to shed large contracts.

I pretty much agree. No RT or S we take this year is going ot be expected to play this season. We've got to keep our eyes on the future while building depth for now. Even though our needs look pretty clear, we can't lock ourselves into taking an OT--no reaching for need.

Setting aside RT for now, It's nice to see that this draft is supposed to be rich in TEs. We've needed a better #2 TE for years. I think a better second TE could really boost our offense and keep Kittle healthier.

There are a lot of good players in this draft and there will be some meat left on the bone in Round 3 and 4. Some players, if they fall, will be too good to pass up--so if we nab a good falling Olineman or Corner, I can see us taking one regardless of need.

I am firmly against trading either Lance or Aiyuk. Honestly, I could see us more likely to trade Deebo next offseason before we'd trade Aiyuk this year.

 

[Groo]

Let's see
, small slow safety. I can only assume he'll be ab in the box hybrid lb/s. Just like we already have. A kicker. And yet snother te. No olineman. Clueless in Santa Clara

 

[deep9er]

I had five (5) general thoughts:

1. Lean way over to BPA and its easy to view Ja'ir Brown as a BPA to that point. I was not for a K in Round 3, but Moody COULD be viewed as BPA if he pans out? If he becomes a "Robbie Gould" thats BPA for sure taken at the end of Round 3. I don't know about Latu as BPA, because his name hadn't come up much in mock drafts? I can believe he'll catch the ball, but can he block well?
2. We can envision all three of these guys playing in 2024, Brown and Moody as starters and Latu a #2 TE. Latu taking the Croft and Dwelley reps.
3. Ok with the trade up since we didn't trade up that far. We gave up what i'd have expected to move up 12 spots.
4. We didn't trade Lance nor Aiyuk, GOOD!
5. This thought is now 'moot' after already trading away a 5th and 7th. Trading into 2024 isn't impossible but IMO unlikely. We have had success in the 5th so don't see us trading these away. Teams don't normally trade "up" for 6th and 7th rounders

I have to keep in mind this was at the very end of Round 3, picks we might not even had except for the compensatory system. Better yet, we got these Comp picks with Coaches and one Admin, not losing GOOD players.