NFL Draft

[JMR]

In 2015, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

In 2014, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2013, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2012, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

Not many backs go early any more. But the ones that do often end up being productive.

Well sure, but that's also only part of the story. How long do these guys last? You got teams now reluctant to even give a 2nd contract to high producing backs. You also need to see the production you can get from a mid round RB and see if that drop off is such that it justifies a top pick for just a little better output....for like 3 or 4 years. Meanwhile, you could take that top pick and grab a lineman that can play for 12 seasons.

 

[SonnyCID]

Well sure, but that's also only part of the story. How long do these guys last? You got teams now reluctant to even give a 2nd contract to high producing backs. You also need to see the production you can get from a mid round RB and see if that drop off is such that it justifies a top pick for just a little better output....for like 3 or 4 years. Meanwhile, you could take that top pick and grab a lineman that can play for 12 seasons.

I'm not suggesting that more backs be taken early. I understand the logistics.

But teams that take those elite RB prospects early have a higher success rate than all the teams who draft linemen (especially with 12 year expecations) in those first couple rounds.

 

[RegentDenali]

It's shocking. I'm actually seeing sites that have graded the Seahawks draft class with Bs and even As. Something is wrong with universe.

 

[kcden]

It's shocking. I'm actually seeing sites that have graded the Seahawks draft class with Bs and even As. Something is wrong with universe.

Fuck. I think that means they blew it.

 

[kcden]

Fuck. I think that means they blew it.

Or experts are afraid to say what they really think of the Hawks drafts (if they think we had a shitty draft) because JS and Pete have made them look so bad in the past.

 

[MrS]

In 2015, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

In 2014, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2013, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2012, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

Not many backs go early any more. But the ones that do often end up being productive.

I have no doubt elliot will be productive and will probably win OROY, but RB is a short lived position that DOES NOT win championships. dallas would have been better off taking just about any of the other guys taken top 10, in the long run.

your numbers are wrong though, the only 1st round picks to be top 5 in rushing the since 2012 are peterson, lynch, doug martin (31st overall), and ryan matthews (definitely not worth the 12th pick). in all fairness though, not a lot of RBs have been first rounders the last 10 years.

 

[blstoker]

In 2015, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

In 2014, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2013, 3 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks, another was a 2nd round pick.

In 2012, 4 of the top 5 rushers were 1st round picks.

Not many backs go early any more. But the ones that do often end up being productive.

That's not correct.

2015 - 4 of 5 (Peterson, Martin, Gurley, McFadden)
2014 - 1 of 5 (Lynch)
2013 - 1 of 5 (Peterson)
2012 - 3 of 5 (Peterson, Lynch, Martin)

So, of the 9 top 5 rushers who were 1st rounders, 3 were Peterson, 2 Lynch and 2 Martin.

Since Peterson {Name - Year - (Top 5)}:
Adrian Peterson - 2007 - (2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015)
Marshawn Lynch - 2007 - (2012, 2014)
Darren McFadden - 2008 - (2015)
Jonathan Stewart - 2008 - (None)
Felix Jones - 2008 - (None)
Rashard Mendenhall - 2008 - (None)
Chris Johnson - 2008 - (2009, 2010)
Knowshon Moreno - 2009 - (None)
Donald Brown - 2009 - (None)
Beanie Wells - 2009 - (None)
C.J. Spiller - 2010 - (None)
Ryan Matthews - 2010 - (None)
Jahvid Best - 2010 - (None)
Mark Ingram - 2011 - (None)
Trent Richardson - 2012 - (None)
Doug Martin - 2012 - (2012, 2015)
David Wilson - 2012 - (None)
Todd Gurley - 2015 - (2015)
Melvin Gordon - 2015 - (None)

6 of 19 (4 of 17 if not including 2007 draft) first rounders have been top 5 rushers since Adrian Peterson.

Also, this year's rushing numbers were down for individuals. Chris Ivory had 1070 yards rushing and was 5th - any other year he doesn't even come close with that number.

Yards for 5th:
2015 - 1070
2014 - 1266
2013 - 1266
2012 - 1454
2011 - 1224
2010 - 1324
2009 - 1383
2008 - 1312
2007 - 1304
2006 - 1528

You have to go back to strike shortened 1987 before you can get to a season where the 3-5 of 2015 would have been in the top 5.

So, if you're going to get a Peterson or Gurley (I'd say Lynch, but it was 6 years before he became a top 5 rusher) then sure, a first isn't a bad investment - but it's so hard to know if you're getting that or a Trent Richardson.

 

[MrS]

you beat me to it stoker, his numbers were way off.

 

[JMR]

Or experts are afraid to say what they really think of the Hawks drafts (if they think we had a shitty draft) because JS and Pete have made them look so bad in the past.

Yeah, we are to the point now where "experts" have been tired of looking foolish for banging on our draft that they just hand-waive it as good due to track record.

Lots of talk on the local radio leading up though that this is the most important draft in a long time for our team because we haven't been as successful in the last couple. Not sure I totally agree with either part of that, but I still found it interesting.

 

[MrS]

13 and 14 were not very good drafts, but how much of that is because our team was absolutely loaded? Plus richardson getting hurt. Jordan hill can still be good, willson has been a contributer.

2015 looks like it was a good draft so far too. I have a good feeling about this draft as well.

 

[blstoker]

I know that people say that 13 and 14 were bad drafts, but that just depends on how you look at it. 19 out of 20 players taken were under contract for the 2015 with someone. We got some solid contributors - which is really hard to do with a team as good and as deep as the Hawks have been (especially without first round picks).

Justin Britt - like him or not - has been a contributor for this team. In both his seasons, he struggled early (but who on the line didn't) and then played well the second half of the season. A second year at guard may show that that pick was pretty good.

Richardson - We all know his issue is injuries - having missed half of his career to this point.

Tharold Simon - Another guy who has just been injury prone and has missed 37 of his possible 48 games.

Jesse Williams - Guy can't catch a break.

Cassius Marsh - Got lots of time on the DLine last year.

Jordan Hill - A little streaky - or a lot - but talented.

Luke Willson - I really like him - I know that's not everyone's opinion - but I think he was a great pick for a 5th.

Michael Bowie - Solid depth player for the OLine.

I just don't see anything wrong with those two drafts and these are just some of the players who I think people discount when they say that they weren't good drafts. True, they aren't as flashy as 2012, but they served their purpose.

 

[Judge Fudge]

I know that people say that 13 and 14 were bad drafts, but that just depends on how you look at it. 19 out of 20 players taken were under contract for the 2015 with someone. We got some solid contributors - which is really hard to do with a team as good and as deep as the Hawks have been (especially without first round picks).

Justin Britt - like him or not - has been a contributor for this team. In both his seasons, he struggled early (but who on the line didn't) and then played well the second half of the season. A second year at guard may show that that pick was pretty good.

Richardson - We all know his issue is injuries - having missed half of his career to this point.

Tharold Simon - Another guy who has just been injury prone and has missed 37 of his possible 48 games.

Jesse Williams - Guy can't catch a break.

Cassius Marsh - Got lots of time on the DLine last year.

Jordan Hill - A little streaky - or a lot - but talented.

Luke Willson - I really like him - I know that's not everyone's opinion - but I think he was a great pick for a 5th.

Michael Bowie - Solid depth player for the OLine.

I just don't see anything wrong with those two drafts and these are just some of the players who I think people discount when they say that they weren't good drafts. True, they aren't as flashy as 2012, but they served their purpose.

I don't see all of the hate for Luke Willson. I'm a huge fan of his. He won't make every catch but when we need someone to make a play. Case in point the 2 point conversation against Green bay in the NFC Championship

 

[chf]

I don't see all of the hate for Luke Willson. I'm a huge fan of his. He won't make every catch but when we need someone to make a play. Case in point the 2 point conversation against Green bay in the NFC Championship

I think he's just too inconsistent for people. I too wish he'd not drop some of those easy ones. But yeah, talent up the wazoo.

 

[Screamin12th]

Nothing wrong with Willson, he is a ok blocker and has improved A LOT in that area and he seems to come through in the clutch a lot. He doesn't get a lot of passes thrown his way so his production wont ever been that high but he is a good all around TE not great but good.

 

[Anointed One]

If anything, Willson has been a very good back up TE for this team... That value in itself means something... If you can find a quality backup with a 5th round pick, I'd take it everytime...

 

[JMR]

Yeah, Luke Willson has been a solid player but also inconsistent. He has made some big plays but also drops more easy ones than you would like. Probably a guy who isn't going to get the $$ offer here with the presence of Graham, so I don't see him on the team for a second contract. He will probably get a little more cash somewhere else and maybe have a chance to start or at least catch more passes.

 

[blstoker]

Cowboys reporting that they wanted to move up to #26 to get Paxton Lynch, but that they felt trading #34 and #67 was too much to move back into the first round. Jerry's son had to talk him out of the deal, thinking that Seattle was asking too much and stopped his father from making the big splash move. Ultimately, Denver got the pick (and the player) with #31 and #94.

 

[MrS]

Jerrys son should have talked him out of taking @ rb top 4.