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Brees#1
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For the 1 seed, no number one seed has ever repeated as a division winner and became the 2 seed. Two teams, the Packers and Saints, are the only number one seeds to be a three seed. The Seahawks were the first repeat division winner to finish as a lower division winning seed. Their the only four seed. The number one seed has repeated four times as a number one seed and three times as a division winner at a lower seed. Often, the 1 seed is a wild card, 5 seed usually, or misses the playoffs.
Six of the 11 number one seeds that missed the playoffs finished in the cellar of their division. Only once has a team finished runner up in their division and not make the wild card.
Here are the outcomes since 2020:
Packers-repeat as top seed
Packers-missed playoffs, 3rd in division
Eagles-wild card, 5 seed
49ers- missed playoffs, 4th in division
Lions-missed playoffs, 4th in division
Three of the last four teams missed the playoffs. The last two teams finished fourth in their division.
Seattle has never missed the playoffs as a 1 seed. They were a 4 seed, 1 seed, and wild card. It's hard to see Seattle finishing third in their division(well not really) and there is no way the NFC West division winner is lower than the 2 seed. Seattle will repeat as 1 seed or make the wild card, likely the 5 seed.
As for the number two seed, that is way different. The number two seed until 2025 never had a repeat division win with a lower seed and winning record. The 2005 Bears were the only repeat division winner in the 00s. Them, the 2019 Packers, and the 2022 49ers are the only teams to move up to the top seed. The 2011 49ers repeated as a 2 seed. The Rams in 04 and the Bears in 06 were the only number two seeds to make the playoffs in the 00s decade. In the 2010s, the 10 Bears, 15 Cards, 17 Vikings, and 18 Rams missed the playoffs. The 13 Panthers had a 7-8-1 record and managed to win the division again. The 14 Packers, 16 Falcons were wild cards. In the more recent years, the Bucs were another repeat division winner in a terrible division with a sub .500 record.
Here are the outcomes since 2020:
Saints-missed playoffs
Bucs- won division again with 8-9 record.
49ers- 1 seed
Cowboys-missed playoffs
Eagles- 3 seed, first team to finish at lower seed legitimately.
These teams have either got the 1 seed or missed the playoffs. The Bears will not make the playoffs at 8-9. The NFC North winner should be the 2 seed or higher as well. The Bears have been the 1 seed and missed the playoffs the previous two times they were the 2 seed. The Bears could capitalize or miss the playoffs, which goes against my projections. Only three times was the number two seed a wild card. This has me thinking the Bears will repeat as the 2 seed if they make the playoffs.
Six of the 11 number one seeds that missed the playoffs finished in the cellar of their division. Only once has a team finished runner up in their division and not make the wild card.
Here are the outcomes since 2020:
Packers-repeat as top seed
Packers-missed playoffs, 3rd in division
Eagles-wild card, 5 seed
49ers- missed playoffs, 4th in division
Lions-missed playoffs, 4th in division
Three of the last four teams missed the playoffs. The last two teams finished fourth in their division.
Seattle has never missed the playoffs as a 1 seed. They were a 4 seed, 1 seed, and wild card. It's hard to see Seattle finishing third in their division(well not really) and there is no way the NFC West division winner is lower than the 2 seed. Seattle will repeat as 1 seed or make the wild card, likely the 5 seed.
As for the number two seed, that is way different. The number two seed until 2025 never had a repeat division win with a lower seed and winning record. The 2005 Bears were the only repeat division winner in the 00s. Them, the 2019 Packers, and the 2022 49ers are the only teams to move up to the top seed. The 2011 49ers repeated as a 2 seed. The Rams in 04 and the Bears in 06 were the only number two seeds to make the playoffs in the 00s decade. In the 2010s, the 10 Bears, 15 Cards, 17 Vikings, and 18 Rams missed the playoffs. The 13 Panthers had a 7-8-1 record and managed to win the division again. The 14 Packers, 16 Falcons were wild cards. In the more recent years, the Bucs were another repeat division winner in a terrible division with a sub .500 record.
Here are the outcomes since 2020:
Saints-missed playoffs
Bucs- won division again with 8-9 record.
49ers- 1 seed
Cowboys-missed playoffs
Eagles- 3 seed, first team to finish at lower seed legitimately.
These teams have either got the 1 seed or missed the playoffs. The Bears will not make the playoffs at 8-9. The NFC North winner should be the 2 seed or higher as well. The Bears have been the 1 seed and missed the playoffs the previous two times they were the 2 seed. The Bears could capitalize or miss the playoffs, which goes against my projections. Only three times was the number two seed a wild card. This has me thinking the Bears will repeat as the 2 seed if they make the playoffs.
