New Coach - Random Thoughts

[Mingo]

Here are some things that cross my mind about Sean Payton's hire:

1) I expect George Paton to be gone sometime after the draft - certainly before the year is out. Sean Payton will want more control over personnel than George Paton would like to give.

2) Jerry Jeudy will inherit a lot of targets because Sean Payton has a history of finding skill players and ramping up their stats.

3) Courtland Sutton figures to be trade bait with a reasonable contract.

4) Darby, Dalton and possibly Bolles - figure to be salary cap cuts. If all three that's $30 million in relief - there's $12 million in roll over money and about $11.5 in increased cap space from the league media contract. That would be $53.5 million for the draft and free agents.

5) Sean Payton will resolve the question - Is it Russ or the goofy coach? I expect him to come up with 20-30 plays Russell Wilson can perform well and wear them out.

6) Finally, the Oline will get the attention it deserves. Payton had good linemen in N.O..

7) Payton rebuilt the Saints roster twice - even if he had the same QB. That bodes well for him taking this roster of talent for a quick playoff run.

8) Greg Penner will finance anything outside the cap - as much as needed so there should be no budget limitation on assistant coaches - analytics, sports science strength and conditioning, or travel expenses.

9) The more I think about - the better this situation looks.

 

[PumpFake]

Good post, Kemosabe.

Dalton Risner? Isn’t he FA?

 

[Mingo]

Good post, Kemosabe.

Dalton Risner? Isn’t he FA?

Yes, I meant Glasgow.

 

[LGM]

I'd be surprised if Paton was let go. He's still one of the best GM's during the draft, and agents respect him as a fair negotiator. Payton had a similar structure in Nola, so Im betting he stays.

 

[PumpFake]

I'd be surprised if Paton was let go. He's still one of the best GM's during the draft, and agents respect him as a fair negotiator. Payton had a similar structure in Nola, so Im betting he stays.

I agree with LGM. Should be an interesting presser on Monday.

**More:

Payton’s arrival sets up an interesting dynamic. Sources believe he will want power, and it’s unclear what that will look like. Will he ask to bring in front-office executives he’s worked with in the past like Ryan Pace and Jeff Ireland? And will he have final say over the roster instead of current GM Paton? Paton, however, became critical to ownership during this roller-coaster hiring process, something to be mindful of moving forward. **

Broncos officially sign Sean Payton to five-year deal

The Broncos officially signed Sean Payton to a five-year deal Friday, a source confirmed to Broncos Insider Troy Renck.

www.denver7.com

 

[Duffman]

The only issue I have is we’re already super thin at all line and so I don’t think we should be cutting guys we have, especially starters, even if it does save some cap space. I’m all for some restructuring but I don’t think cutting them is the best action.

 

[Mingo]

I'd be surprised if Paton was let go. He's still one of the best GM's during the draft, and agents respect him as a fair negotiator. Payton had a similar structure in Nola, so Im betting he stays.

Well, they are both now used to autonomy in roster decisions, but both will report to Penner. George Paton will hhave to go back to being an order taker to make it work. Plus, George Paton has the disastrous coaching decision to live down. I see conflict that Sean Payton will win out.

 

[Mingo]

The only issue I have is we’re already super thin at all line and so I don’t think we should be cutting guys we have, especially starters, even if it does save some cap space. I’m all for some restructuring but I don’t think cutting them is the best action.

I'm not sure zone blocking schemes will be the order of the day with Sean Payton. He might want a different type of lineman. Also - Bolles and Glasgow might be over market price for what they can produce right now.

 

[iknowftbll]

I like the Payton hire. I wanted no part of any coordinators who were "up and coming" especially defensive coordinators. All respect to those guys but the NFL has been very clear they no longer want defense in their on-field product and the Broncos have got to get on board if they want to be relevant again.

What this team needs is an offense that can score and a defense that can just make a couple key plays at critical moments. Having a dominant defense is great but the Broncos will never be rewarded by the league (get the benefit of the doubt on 50-50 calls) until they get on board and cooperate with the league's direction. It's a shame because I love both sides of the ball. I wish the league still did because this game is becoming unwatchable.

Payton was a great hire. I am very confident in his ability to get Russell Wilson to a respectable level again. We have some pieces on this roster, especially on the offense. We will be getting some guys back from injury and FA season is right around the corner. I'm not too worried about the lack of draft capital right now. I just want to see what Payton can do to maximize what we have once we get into early summer. I believe Sean Payton is going to be able to get more out of this roster than any coordinator who was in the running would have been able to do.

Also, despite the league shunning defense, having a good to great defense is still important, especially in another season of transition. If this defense can keep opponents' scoring to under 20PPG the way they did through most of 2022 we will definitely have a sturdy foundation to build on.

I am not ready to make a prediction on how many games I expect the Broncos to win in 2023. It'll probably be fewer than we wish. But I definitely expect to see signs we have found a direction. That will be a significant improvement over that dumpster fire Hackett created in 2022.

 

[iknowftbll]

A couple more thoughts:

The Broncos played 13 1-score games in 2022. For as lousy as a 5-12 record is, this team was hanging with just about everyone they played. It's not like they don't have the pieces. They just need a more out of that offense. The Broncos went 3-10 in those 1-score games and in most of them the offense is to blame. Can the team correct course and to a .500 mark in these close games? Can Payton get a few more points every week out of an offense that was historically inept in 2022? And if he did, would an improvement from historically bad to mediocre be enough to get this team to 9 or 10 wins?

I am hopeful with Payton. Jaded a bit, but still hopeful. Hopeful Payton can get this team back to the days when the most exciting part of the season was the actual season and not the off season.

 

[PumpFake]

I'm not sure zone blocking schemes will be the order of the day with Sean Payton. He might want a different type of lineman. Also - Bolles and Glasgow might be over market price for what they can produce right now.

Renegotiate or convert salary to signing bonus at a minimum.

Am I crazy to think we may deploy Walmart money to convert some of the larger players salaries to signing bonuses?

 

[Mingo]

Renegotiate or convert salary to signing bonus at a minimum.

Am I crazy to think we may deploy Walmart money to convert some of the larger players salaries to signing bonuses?

Yes, you could do that, but you have to be sure they are the right guys for the money.

 

[PumpFake]

A couple more thoughts:

The Broncos played 13 1-score games in 2022. For as lousy as a 5-12 record is, this team was hanging with just about everyone they played. It's not like they don't have the pieces. They just need a more out of that offense. The Broncos went 3-10 in those 1-score games and in most of them the offense is to blame. Can the team correct course and to a .500 mark in these close games? Can Payton get a few more points every week out of an offense that was historically inept in 2022? And if he did, would an improvement from historically bad to mediocre be enough to get this team to 9 or 10 wins?

I am hopeful with Payton. Jaded a bit, but still hopeful. Hopeful Payton can get this team back to the days when the most exciting part of the season was the actual season and not the off season.

Let’s be honest, the offense was to blame in ALL those games.

I believe the questions you’re asking about getting more out of the offense were answered the last two weeks of the season. And in those last two games the defense was missing key components in the front 7 and the reason why D numbers tailed off from season averages.

There should be a lot to work with next year. It will be interesting to see how the personnel is retained and altered to fit both cap and scheme.

 

[PumpFake]

Yes, you could do that, but you have to be sure they are the right guys for the money.

Right, if you cut them deeper into their contracts everything accelerates to the cap, I believe.

Making it a bit of a crap shoot and flirting with cap hell.

 

[iknowftbll]

Let’s be honest, the offense was to blame in ALL those games.

I believe the questions you’re asking about getting more out of the offense were answered the last two weeks of the season. And in those last two games the defense was missing key components in the front 7 and the reason why D numbers tailed off from season averages.

There should be a lot to work with next year. It will be interesting to see how the personnel is retained and altered to fit both cap and scheme.

That's very true. Even in the games where the defense gave up a game winning score in the 4th quarter, the offense had no business scoring so little a number of points.

 

[SpringStein]

Maybe it’s because I’m hoping - but I see Paton still being the GM. Why? I don’t think his ego is too big to work together, I think he is more a “we” leader than a “me” leader. Overall his trades (of course the one major miss appears to be the Wilson trade) have been good. His drafting has also been strong. The two major blemishes on his record are the Seattle trade and the Hackett hire. But working closely with Penner since the franchise purchase, I’m leaning toward him being given a chance to work with Payton.

 

[nflbronco]

Great thread Mingo thanks for the breakdown. I only have a few things to add

1. Imo FA RB's will be looking harder at Denver in 2023. I'd still prefer to draft one but, I expect a FA one as well.
2. I can also see a FA WR added which seems weird. IDK about Sutton or Hamler being in their plans
3. I thought all along if we traded picks for Payton I fully expect a big name player or two to be traded re coup draft assets
4. With T. Hill be added as QB2? We need a quality backup badly
5. Penner Group allows us the opportunity for best staff in NFL

Paton I thought if Payton was hired he'd be 95% gone after draft 23. I've dropped it to 50/50.

 

[PumpFake]

Interesting read.

Sean Payton’s ability to adapt is why he’ll turn the Broncos around

The Denver Broncos are a playoff contender, because Sean Payton knows how to get the most out of his players and he has proven it over a long period of coaching in the NFL.

www.milehighreport.com

 

[PumpFake]

In response to @nflbronco’s #4 point above, Mingo brought up drafting Max Duggan. I had mentioned Stetson Bennett. If Payton is indeed a bit of a QB whisperer, then we should be able to give the illusion of a deep QB room. Then leverage the value of that talent any way we can.

I’ll be interested in seeing what Payton thinks of Rypien. I’m not discounting SP’s ability to get more out of that kid.

 

[iknowftbll]

In response to @nflbronco’s #4 point above, Mingo brought up drafting Max Duggan. I had mentioned Stetson Bennett. If Payton is indeed a bit of a QB whisperer, then we should be able to give the illusion of a deep QB room. Then leverage the value of that talent any way we can.

I’ll be interested in seeing what Payton thinks of Rypien. I’m not discounting SP’s ability to get more out of that kid.

I like that we have Rypien, I really do think he's serviceable at backup. But the jury is still out on Russell Wilson so if they draft a mid-round QB to develop for 2-3 years out I am ok with that.

Let's face it, this team has been dismal since the 2017 season (2016 was respectable at 9-7 and just outside the playoffs). As long as there is clear direction I think I will be ok with 2023. If they go all in with Wilson and try to use FA to stock the cupboards and win a SB in the next 2 seasons, awesome. If they try to build a roster that competes for a SB with Wilson leading 3-4 years from now, also great. If they give Wilson another shot and determine he's spent and move on after 2023, also great. I just want to see direction out of this team. Something they've lacked since Kubiak left.