Neil's plan may backfire

[thecrow124]

While I am sure he thought all the midlevel free agents would still be around at the winter meetings, it appears as though some will not be. Philadelphia is getting the signings done early, signed Thome, no big deal, but are now targeting Michael Cuddyer. Now Cuddyer is one of the FA's I thought we would target later in the offseason, but that doesn't look likely anymore.

This is the aggressive approach I thought we should have been taking this year instead of waiting around to try to get bargains later in the signing period, but alas, it looks more and more likely that we will again wait around and be outbid when other teams are finally getting interrested in baseball operations.

I can understand waiting for FA relievers, but if there is someone you want, don't wait, just go get them by paying market value for the player. Then again, maybe Neil wasn't as interrested in Cuddyer as I would have been.

 

[magnumo]

Given NH's history of bad FA signings, I don't hold much hope.

Given the WAR produced in 2011 by the declined options, I fully expect a downgrade in the Pirates' 2012 roster from 2011.

I'm hoping against hope that Huntington proves me wrong, but I gotta feeling the 2012 Pirates will lose at least 90 games again, and a 100+ loss season wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[element1286]

Yea, I don't know, I don't see Cuddyer as a great fit for the team. His power is to the dead pull side, and as a right handed hitter he is would get killed by the big OF at PNC. They need a right handed power bat with power to all fields. Or just get a doubles type of hitter from the right side, and add a power lefty bat.

But on the larger point, I still think there is enough out there to upgrade some spots via free agency. But I think the trade route is a good one as well. And since we know the Pirates can take on salary, they could acquire a guy with a big(ish) deal, and not have to surrender much in terms of prospects.

 

[steelparrot]

I think the chances of a good free agent signing are pretty low too, a typical hot stove season at the bargain bin, that never seem to be a bargain when they get on the field =(, but on the bright side we seem to have a pretty big budget for dumpster diving this off season.

We HAVE to get a short stop and a catcher and I bet 1st base is a big target for the fo too.

 

[magnumo]

We HAVE to get a short stop and a catcher and I bet 1st base is a big target for the fo too.

.....to say nothing of starting pitching.

If we assume that FA signing goes about the same as it has in the past, that leaves trades and callups to replace the WAR the Pirates lost by declining those options:

2.5 @ C from Doumit and Snyder (in playing time limited by injuries)
2.1 @ SP from Maholm
1.4 @ SS from Cedeno
0.9 @ 1B from Lee (in very limited play after his acquisition)

I gotta wonder whether there are any real possibilities on the trade front. :frown:

- It seems reasonable to assume that NH cannot trade a starting pitcher, since Maholm is already gone and Morton is recovering from serious surgery.

- It makes no sense to trade Alvarez at his current low value.

- Neither Tabata nor Presley has established himself enough to bring much of a trade return.

Other than bullpen and bench guys, that leaves McCutchen, Hanrahan, and Walker. Hey, maybe Huntington can pull off a Rincon-for-Giles type trade.

 

[element1286]

Wandy Rodriguez is out there, he is still a pretty good pitcher, but has a lot of money left on his deal. I don't think it would take much in terms of prospects to get him from Houston, as long as the Bucs pay a decent portion of his salary, which we know they can.

And it looks like the Pirates are expected to pursue Barmes, which makes sense since he is serviceable, and has connections to Hurdle.

 

[magnumo]

Wandy Rodriguez is out there, he is still a pretty good pitcher, but has a lot of money left on his deal. I don't think it would take much in terms of prospects to get him from Houston, as long as the Bucs pay a decent portion of his salary, which we know they can.

And it looks like the Pirates are expected to pursue Barmes, which makes sense since he is serviceable, and has connections to Hurdle.

Listed below are the 2012 ages, 2011 WAR, and cost for Rodriguez vs. Maholm:

Rodriguez---33---1.5---owed $10 mill for 2012, $13 mill for 2013, $13 mill option ($2.5 mill buyout) in 2014, plus whatever he would cost in prospects.

Maholm-----30---2.1---$9.75 mill for 2012 ($0.5 mill buyout)

That doesn't look like an upgrade to me. Rodriguez is 3 years older, produced less WAR, and is significantly more expensive.

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Looking at Barmes vs. Cedeno (2012 age, 2011 WAR, and cost):

Barmes-----33---3.1---$8 mill for 2 years (most popular projection I've seen)

Cedeno-----29---1.4---$3 mill for 2012

Perhaps an upgrade at SS, but for a player who is 4 years older and more likely to decline.

-------------------------------------

At any rate, assuming all 4 players produce as they did in 2011, the Pirates would get one more win for a substantially larger financial commitment to significantly older players..... AND even if NH targets Rodriguez and Barmes, there's no guarantee that they will sign with the Pirates. The further I pursue this, the bleaker it looks to me.

 

[element1286]

Don't like looking at one year samples from WAR, when I evaluate a player (statistics only) I'm looking for the true talent level, the more information the better. Rodriguez has 9.1 WAR the last three seasons, Maholm 7.2. If I had to bet money, Wandy will be a superior pitcher next year. Point taken on the age, but I don't see any red flags in Wandy's profile, yet.

As for Barmes, I don't think he is a slam dunk, but I think he is an upgrade defensively, and has a higher upside with the bat. The age is a concern, I agree, but 2 years 8 million would be worth the risk, IMO.

I'm not saying either would be gigantic upgrades, but I would consider both small upgrades over what they had in Maholm in Cedeno as far as expectation.

 

[element1286]

From KLaw Chat last week, for what's it's worth.

KLAW: Dammit, the system just ate a question about picking up Maholm's and Cedeno's options. I would have picked up Cedeno's. Fine with them declining Maholm's.

 

[thedddd]

There isn't much out there at SS or C. So if Cedeno doesn't come back I would be surprised.

Just saw the KC deal. A definite sell high on Cabrera and KC hoping Sanchez could be more than a one season wonder. Not sure but I think NH needs to find deals like this for SP so I have no issue with trying to pull Rodriguez from Houston.

Wonder about one of the Indian SP's now they traded for Lowe?

 

[steelparrot]

Its easy to spend 20 mil internet gming:

2/20 Pena
2/10 Barmes
1/5 veteran catcher

No matter what we do in fa, our biggest possible improvement will Lincoln/pick your favorite AAA lefty and Alvarez/Tabata/Presley/

What would it take to get Yonder Alonso? Hes super blocked behind Votto. I wouldn't trade Hanrahan for him straight up... but I would consider Marte/Owens.

 

[Illinest]

Don't be ridiculous. His plans were achieved the second he refused those options. You have to remember that paring costs is more important than fielding a competitive lineup.

 

[thedddd]

Don't be ridiculous. His plans were achieved the second he refused those options. You have to remember that paring costs is more important than fielding a competitive lineup.

We all know that just blind optimism, I guess.