My 2015 Top 10 NFL Draft Prediction

[TEB11]

1) QB, Marcus Mariota (Tampa Bay)
2) QB, Jameis Winston (Tennessee)
3) DT, Randy Gregory (Jacksonville)
4) WR, Amari Cooper (Oakland)
5) OT, Brandon Scherff (Washington)
6) OT, Andrus Peat (New York Jets)
7) S, Landon Collins (Chicago)
8) DT, Leonard Williams (Atlanta)
9) LB, Vic Beasly (New York Giants)
10) LB, Shane Ray (St. Louis)

See you in April!

 

[ksudodger]

10) LB, Shane Ray (St. Louis)

Shane won't play OLB in the NFL, at least not in a 4-3. He is too slow to play OLB in the NFL. In your scenario, if you want to grab an OLB, you grab Shaq Thompson from Washington. Shane Ray is good but he is a tweener, kinda like Mike Sam was. He is 6'3", 245. He will be a PERFECT 3-4 Rush OLB but not a OLB in 4-3.

 

[TEB11]

ksu, I was actually debating between the two and couldn't decide on which one, so great point!

 

[ksudodger]

Yeah trust and believe Shane Ray will be a beast in the NFL, in the RIGHT situation. He is not a can't miss. Shaq Thompson is a true OLB and IMO a can't miss. If Scherff and Peat are gone it will a tough call between Thompson and say someone like Cedric Ogbuehi.

 

[Clayton]

My early prediction.

1. Tampa Bay - Jameis Winston QB
2. Tennessee - Marcus Mariota QB
3. Jacksonville - Leonard Williams DT
4. Oakland - Amari Cooper WR
5. Washington - Ronnie Stanley OT
6. NY Jets - TJ Clemmings OT
7. Chicago - Randy Gregory DE
8. Atlanta - Shane Ray DE
9. NY Giants - Cedric Ogbuhi OT
10. STL Rams - Ereck Flowers OT

 

[ksudodger]

So Clayton are you saying that the unquestioned #1 Offensive Lineman in the draft, Brandon Scherff, will not only NOT be the first linemen chosen, you have FOUR guys going ahead of him? Stanley still has not said he is coming out. Clemmings and Flowers are projected as a late 1st/early 2nd round guys. If anything the 4 OT going in the top 10 will be Scherff,Peat,Ogbuehi and Collins...

 

[Clayton]

So Clayton are you saying that the unquestioned #1 Offensive Lineman in the draft, Brandon Scherff, will not only NOT be the first linemen chosen, you have FOUR guys going ahead of him? Stanley still has not said he is coming out. Clemmings and Flowers are projected as a late 1st/early 2nd round guys. If anything the 4 OT going in the top 10 will be Scherff,Peat,Ogbuehi and Collins...

Scherff and Peat looked a bit lumbering to me. Since there are so many OL prospects, I dont think they'll separate themselves till the combine and team workouts. I do think 3-4 will go in the top 10. Collins might sneak into the top 10 as a SS and a WR might climb to the top 10 but that will probably involve a trade up.

 

[ksudodger]

Scherff and Peat looked a bit lumbering to me.

Not sure what film you were watching but Scherff is faster and stronger than Robinson IMO.

[ame]www.youtube.com/watch?v=TS9Hq4bdFY0[/ame]

 

[Clayton]

I saw the one video of Scherff on Draft Breakdown. Just kinda did an eyeball test of all of the top OTs. This is a really good OT draft, imo.

 

[jeffro151]

I just don't see Winston being a top pick. Yes, he is a hell of a talent, but he is going to bomb the Wonderlic test, and that is going to turn right many teams off. I honestly think an NFL defense is going to mess him up too.

 

[AHFox]

I saw the one video of Scherff on Draft Breakdown. Just kinda did an eyeball test of all of the top OTs. This is a really good OT draft, imo.

Just my 2 cents I think Scherff ends up inside at guard. However he will be an all pro guard.

 

[Clayton]

I just don't see Winston being a top pick. Yes, he is a hell of a talent, but he is going to bomb the Wonderlic test, and that is going to turn right many teams off. I honestly think an NFL defense is going to mess him up too.

Yeah, but he throws a good deep ball, he plays in Florida right down the road from Tampa Bay and the Bucs have 2 big receivers that are good at catching deep balls. Thats enough for Tampa to give him a try, imo, and then they'll probably go oline the next 2 rounds.

 

[Clayton]

Current Big Boards

ESPN
1. Leonard Williams DT
2. Marcus Mariota QB
2. Shane Ray DE
4. Amari Cooper WR
4. Randy Gregory DE
6. Jameis Winston QB
7. Devante Parker WR
7. Brandon Scherff OT
7. Danny Shelton DT
10. Landon Collins SS,
10. Eddie Goldman DT
10. Leonard Floyd OLB,
10. Cedric Ogbuehi OT

Walter Football
1. Jameis Winston QB
2. Leonard Williams DT
3. Randy Gregory DE
4. Amari Cooper WR
5. Marcus Mariota QB
6. Melvin Gordon RB
7. Todd Gurley RB
8. Ronnie Staley OT
9. Ereck Flowers OT
10. Shane Ray DE

CBS Sports
1. Marcus Mariota QB
2. Leonard Williams DT
3. Jameis Winston QB
4. Randy Gregory DE
5. Amari Cooper WR
6. Brandon Scherff OT
7. Landon Collins SS
8. Shane Ray DE
9. Vic Beasley OLB
10. Shaq Thompson OLB

Drafttek
1. Marcus Mariota QB
2. Leonard Williams DT
3. Brandon Scherff OT
4. Amari Cooper WR
5. Randy Gregory DE
6. Jameis Winston QB
7. Vic Beasley OLB
8. Shane Ray DE
9. Dante Fowler OLB
10. Landon Collins SS

 

[icefreeze57]

Does anyone really want the 4th OT? Seems a little high, the class is good but its not special.

And I think Shane Ray is a DE, we shouldn't draft him.

 

[27mtrcougar]

Just my 2 cents I think Scherff ends up inside at guard. However he will be an all pro guard.

I agree and thats right where the rams should stick him. But nice if a tackle goes down he can play there.

 

[ksudodger]

Does anyone really want the 4th OT? Seems a little high, the class is good but its not special.

And I think Shane Ray is a DE, we shouldn't draft him.

First of all, we will get the #1 or #2 OT at #10. Either Oakland or Washington will take Leonard Williams. And Atlanta will take Beasley or Shaq Thompson. We will get either Scherff or Peat at #10. But at the same time, I am 100% sure we will trade down a few spots, still get someone like Collins,Stanley or Ogbuehi AND snag an extra couple picks.

 

[Clayton]

Does anyone really want the 4th OT? Seems a little high, the class is good but its not special. .

First of all, we will get the #1 or #2 OT at #10.

I don't think thats a lock or even probable at all. OL is a top 2 need for the Giants, top 3 for the Jets who need to fix offense more than defense and are probably locked in to Geno Smith, top 3 need for the Redskins and will be chosen if the pass rusher doesnt pan out. So thats 3 teams that 'could' pick an OT. Id put Tampa Bay on that list at #1 but that could take some sort of Cutler megatrade for them to get off the #1 spot and that would be silly for them. So odds are, the Rams would be choosing from the #2 or #3 OT with an outside shot at the #1 OT and the #4 OT. The tape on Gregory and Beasley is only ok and Ray's measurables are a bit iffy. Odds are, all 3 aren't going to go in the top 10 with 7 of the teams needing offense in the worst way.

Shaq Thompson would have to be Patrick Willis to be a top 10 pick and the Rams don't have the luxury of taking a linebacker that high when the offense is a dumpster fire.

 

[ksudodger]

Shaq Thompson would have to be Patrick Willis to be a top 10 pick and the Rams don't have the luxury of taking a linebacker that high when the offense is a dumpster fire.

I agree with most of what you said above, but I agree with this most. I love Thompson, but not that much more than say Eric Kendricks, Jordan Jenkins, Geneo Grissom to take him at #10. Also, in regards to the OT. Taking Brandon Scherff out of the equation (who I think is the first OT taken), there is not a lot of difference between Ogbuehi,Peat,Collins and Stanley. That said, we all know Snead is someone who likes to deal and if we can move from say #10 to #13 or #14, still get one of those 5 guys AND snag an extra pick or two, THAT is what is best for business (to quote my boy HHH)

 

[Clayton]

Also, in regards to the OT. Taking Brandon Scherff out of the equation (who I think is the first OT taken), there is not a lot of difference between Ogbuehi,Peat,Collins and Stanley. That said, we all know Snead is someone who likes to deal and if we can move from say #10 to #13 or #14, still get one of those 5 guys AND snag an extra pick or two, THAT is what is best for business (to quote my boy HHH)

There will be more clarity once people like Mayock jump into the ring. Currently there are only 2 opinions out there: the consensus and walter football and both are ultimately outsiders at this point compared to what is actually seen and done at the combine.

Footballoutsiders has a slog of an interview with a scout but he breaks down Scherff for about 20 minutes or so. The gist I got is that he has a lot of 'functional strength' which is code word for potential starter for years to come. He also has good recognition. His balance is terrible, though. I think he is a lot like Saffold. I don't think he is a top 10 lock but he might be a great fit for the Rams

 

[27mtrcougar]

Mel Kipers first Mock

1Jameis WinstonTampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: QB
Analysis: The bottom line is Winston is the most advanced on-field quarterback in the draft, and while the Buccaneers have a nice set of weapons for an emerging quarterback to utilize there's little evidence they have a future franchise quarterback on the current roster. Questions about Winston's maturity and off-field decision-making are more than fair and could have him written off some draft boards if he can't convince teams he can be a franchise leader. But on the field you get a big, durable, mobile, strong-armed talent with a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do. I would not draft with him with the goal of starting him in Week 1 -- his 2014 season proved there's work to be done -- but if Winston realizes his potential, he's a possible superstar.

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2Marcus MariotaTennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 211POS: QB
Analysis: The Titans have said all the right things about Zach Mettenberger, but based on what we saw from him in 2014, there are considerable questions about his NFL ceiling. Offensive fit and the ability to adapt are big questions around Mariota, but he's an elite talent and has the chance to be special if a team is patient with him. Mariota has a great work ethic, exceptional athletic tools, enough arm to drive the ball down the field and on intermediate throws and he did improve in his ability to get through progressions, anticipate and deliver with good placement this season. The question is whether he can look as special outside the confines of the Oregon offense. If Tennessee doesn't like either of the top two quarterbacks, this is a pretty obvious trade-up position.

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3Leonard WilliamsJacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 290POS: DE
Analysis: If you drop need and go on "best player available" -- something I believe really does happen more and more, given the unpredictable nature of the quarterback position in particular -- Williams is a contender to go No. 1 overall. A versatile and relentless defensive lineman, he's a good fit in Jacksonville's scheme and is so tantalizing because you're adding a disruptor, a player who has great awareness against the run but can batter both guards and tackles as a pass-rusher, too. This is a player you can say would help every team in the draft. The Jags need O-line help, but the value here just isn't good enough.

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4Amari CooperOakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 205POS: WR
Analysis: I can see the Raiders also targeting one of the next two picks here, as they could really use another pass-rusher to take some of the pressure off Khalil Mack, who was exceptional as a rookie but is actually a better run defender than pass-rusher at this point. That said, the Raiders have also likely found their franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, and they really need to add a high-level wide receiver in that offense. James Jones was adequate, but the yards per catch was a problem, and Andre Holmes is a weapon, though a complementary one. Cooper can be a Reggie Wayne-like starter for years in the right offense.

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PLAYER CARD
5Randy GregoryWashington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-6WT: 245POS: DE
Analysis: Gregory is the type of pass-rushing talent that can transcend systems. Long, athletic and highly explosive coming off the edge, he's a little undersized as a classic 4-3 defensive end and could play in space a little better as a 3-4 outside linebacker. But he can flat out cause disruption -- not just as a pass-rusher, mind you, because heâ??ll also play with good leverage against the run and make plays in the backfield. Washington should be purely in the "take a great football player" category, and Gregory fits the bill and can make them better as a rookie.

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6Shane RayNew York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 240POS: DE
Analysis: The Jets could go in another direction in terms of defensive system now that former coach Rex Ryan isn't running point on that side of the ball, but they need to add a pure pass-rusher to go with the significant talent they have elsewhere along the defensive line regardless of system. Ray was arguably the most productive pass-rusher in college football this season and is no one-trick pony -- he really shows off an arsenal, a blend of technique, explosiveness and just relentlessness. The Jets have other needs, but if a quarterback isn't available here, I like Ray as a fit. Repeat after me: You can never have too many pass-rushers.

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7Landon CollinsChicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 212POS: S
Analysis: Safety play has been, without exaggerating, a borderline disaster for the Bears, extending beyond this season. Collins does a lot of his best work near the line of scrimmage, but he can certainly be effective playing off the line as a guy who anticipates well, makes good reads and takes proper angles. He comes in with a lot of experience, and for a defense that was such a mess, I like taking a player who offers a lot of versatility and won't need to come off the field much. I know cornerback is a need even after they used a first-round pick there last year, but I'm not sold on the value this high, and, given Chicago's litany of needs on D, they should go for the best player who can help them soon. Collins fits.

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8Dante Fowler Jr.Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: A known commodity since he arrived on campus, Fowler actually frustrated me some coming into the year because the talent looked better than the production. But he really put it together this season and made more plays, finishing with 15 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He offers the strength to set the edge as a 4-3 defensive end and becomes quick for the position in that role. While he lacks what I consider elite explosiveness, he has great strength and can both set the edge and occasionally drive a blocker backward. The Falcons need this kind of a player, as the pass rush was a weakness all year.

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9Brandon ScherffNew York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 320POS: OT
Analysis: While he's a left tackle at Iowa, I think Scherff could start his NFL career at right tackle and, if he were to deal with growing pains there, could end up at guard. If you then question a draft slot this high, getting a guy who can be solid at right tackle right away and potentially dominant at guard isn't too shabby. The guy is simply devastating as a run-blocker, and the Giants could draft him knowing he'll play right away and provide dividends. (Think of what Dallas got in drafting Zack Martin last season and moving him inside.) With apologies to those of you who want to see 250 targets to Odell Beckham, Jr., Scherff could help balance this offense.

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PLAYER CARD
10T J ClemmingsSt. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: PittsburghClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 313POS: OT
Analysis: The Rams made more strides on defense this year after adding Aaron Donald as a clear "best player available" pick in the 2014 NFL draft, and the defense benefited greatly. But while their No. 2 overall pick, Greg Robinson, goes into 2015 as the starter at left tackle after looking better there for the most part over the last five weeks this season, the O-line still graded out poorly for me overall, and the Rams need to bring in more talent. Clemmings is a player who has come a long way since converting from defense, but he has arguably as high a ceiling as any tackle in this class and won't need to start his career at left tackle. Quarterback questions persist, but there's no fix to be found here after the top two guys are off the board. More help up front is needed.