Midseason Goalie Ratings!

[Darkstone42]

You may or may not remember the stat I developed last year for evaluating goaltender performance in the NHL. It's a rate stat I call Goalie Rating that draws some parallels to Quarterback Rating in the NFL. The formula is:

1000*Svpct - 50*GAA + 10*(W/GP) + 1.5^[0.1*(Sv/GP)] = GR

I went ahead an analyzed every statistical "true starter," which I defined as any goaltender with at least 22 GP. That turned out to be 27 goalies. Here is the complete list, in decreasing order of GR, with the GR next to the players' names at this, essentially the midpoint of the season.

1. Thomas 864.8627
2. Pavelec 837.3121
3. Quick 826.1677
4. Rinne 813.913
5. Vokoun 812.6545
6. Fleury 810.8670
7. Lundqvist 809.6812
8. Price 808.7361
9. Hiller 807.1225
10. Ward 805.0348
11. Luongo 804.5927
12. Halak 800.7970
13. Backstrom 798.2765
14. Bobrovsky 795.1524
15. Bryzgalov 792.7957
16. Nuevirth 791.0640
17. Lehtonen 787.3748
18. Kipprusoff 784.6348
19. Howard 782.5715
20. Miller 776.1190
21. Elliot 755.4285
22. Turco 754.7227
23. Anderson 752.4720
24. Mason 749.6697
25. Ellis 741.2507
26. Khabibulin 735.2478
27. Brodeur 728.6497

There you go!

 

[IPostedWhat]

Did you factor in that Miller plays on the Sabres?

Man, what a difference a season makes. Thomas knows about that as well.

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

Thx DS. At least The Howard is still a notch above The Miller despite having had some bad games of late.

 

[Darkstone42]

Did you factor in that Miller plays on the Sabres?

Man, what a difference a season makes. Thomas knows about that as well.

The Sv/G factor and the fact that W/G isn't a huge piece of the equation is supposed to account for that, and generally does over the course of a full season.

 

[elocomotive]

1000*Svpct - 50*GAA + 10*(W/GP) + 1.5^[0.1*(Sv/GP)] = GR

Is this an exponential thing? Can you explain? I'm curious to see how Varly stacks up in this system.

 

[Darkstone42]

1000*Svpct - 50*GAA + 10*(W/GP) + 1.5^[0.1*(Sv/GP)] = GR

Is this an exponential thing? Can you explain? I'm curious to see how Varly stacks up in this system.

It's a bonus for goalies who make tons of saves. Kind of an adjustment for goalies on bad teams. It was the easiest way I could determine to incorporate the information without throwing off the values. Since it's 1.5^n, it won't increase too fast, so it stays in check, but gives a noticeable bonus.

 

[elocomotive]

It's a bonus for goalies who make tons of saves. Kind of an adjustment for goalies on bad teams. It was the easiest way I could determine to incorporate the information without throwing off the values. Since it's 1.5^n, it won't increase too fast, so it stays in check, but gives a noticeable bonus.

I gotcha, but how does one multiply exponentially if it's a fraction? Maybe I need a fancier calculator.

Looks like Varly's about 830ish.

 

[mooger_35]

Hmm... Schneider is slightly ahead of Luongo at 808.7123.


/in way fewer games

 

[ritari330]

I gotcha, but how does one multiply exponentially if it's a fraction? Maybe I need a fancier calculator.

Looks like Varly's about 830ish.

I was wondering how Varly would rank

 

[Slimpikins]

So what your telling me is that the Sharks don't have a real goalie.

Shit, I could have told you that without any math.

 

[SLY]

TT up top

 

[GagneFire12]

TT up top

Lundqvist isn't looking too shabby either...oh...wait...

 

[PhillyPhaithful48]

Where is Michael Leighton?

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

Where is Michael Leighton?

on a bus somewhere

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

Lundqvist isn't looking too shabby either...oh...wait...

 

[beantownmaniac]

1. Thomas 864.8627

That's all I need to see

 

[makeshiftb0y]

Varly is an 831.4540321704414, unless I made a mistake somwhere; I'm using some online calculator, and I have to keep going back and forth between pages--don't have a real calculator with me.

 

[Automattic]

Under a bus somewhere

Fixed

 

[jstewismybastardson]

Hmm... Schneider is slightly ahead of Luongo at 808.7123.


/in way fewer games

Luongo now at 810.29 ... helps when Flames took 42 perimeter shots at him last game

 

[I cAnT wAtCh]

I'm normally a big time supporter of his, but Vokoun's stats this year are really deceiving.

They're really similar to his #'s last year, and he was easily about 10x better last year.

It could be that he finally grew a brain, and gave up on the team. I don't know.