Make me Laugh. Try to explain SOS - Strength of Schedule

[theboardref]

Wait, what, huh? You should have looked some info up before you said this. So how many times in the last few years did Temple & USF win more games in a season than USC? Going back 3 seasons since you said in the last few years.

Temple's done that once. Last year. 8 W's for the Owls & 5 W's for the Trojans.
USF's done that once. In 2016. USF won 11 games & USC won 10.

#check-yo-facts

He never learned what the word “few” means. #UCFartsSmellBad

 

[Harbringer of Goods]

SOS for a 130 team league that plays a 12 game schedule is pretty pointless, OP has a point.

Might as well just use the average of the last 4 years recruiting rankings, along with the last 4 years results on the field + some sort of algorithm which takes into account how many seasoned members are on the team along with historical coaching records

 

[Taddy Mason]

alright, i'll start with item 1. make you laugh

 

[socaljim242]

Rankings are BS click bait. How many times in the last few years did Temple and USF win more games than USC?

#UCFacts

Lol. Thats not even worthy of replying to. Your trolling is about as good as UCFs scheduling. I hear Bucknell has a date open. Might boost your SOS.lol

 

[HuskerinBig10]

Last 10 years of UCF playing power 5 teams, putting teams in their current conferences, UCF is 10 wins and 17 losses.

UCF does not have a winning record against any Power 5 Conference or BYU in the last 10 years, only winning 37% of the time.

2009 LOST Miami 27-7
LOST Texas 35-2
LOST Rutgers 45-24

2010 LOST NC State 28-21
LOST K State 17-13
WIN Georgia 10-6

2011 WIN Boston College 30-3
LOST BYU 24-17

2012 LOST Ohio State 31-16
LOST Missouri 21-16

2013 WIN Penn State 34-31
LOST South Carolina 28-25
WIN Louisville 38-35
WIN Rutgers 41-17
WIN Baylor 52-42

2014 LOST Penn State 26-24
LOST Missouri 38-10
WIN BYU 31-24
LOST NC State 34-27

2015 LOST South Carolina 31-14
LOST Stanford 31-7

2016 LOST Michigan 51-14
LOST Maryland 30-24

2017 WIN Maryland 38-10
WIN Auburn 34-27

2018 WIN Pittsburgh
LOST LSU 40-32


10 wins 17 losses

ACC 3 wins 3 losses
Big 12 1 win 2 losses
B1G 3 wins 5 losses
PAC 12 0 wins 1 losses
SEC 2 wins 5 losses
BYU 1 win 1 loss

It seems if UCF actually played in a Power 5 conference they would be a middle of the pack to a lower pack team to possibly a Homecoming Game team.

 

[PickleRick]

After 4 days, only 9 posts. And nobody has attempted to explain SOS.

It's a BS stat. Everyone who understands Math knows its a BS stat.

#UCFacts

Beating the womans jv team at sickamore highschool doesnt tend to create value in the eyes of non homers.

 

[UCFhonors]

All teams are treated equally and the data is normalized to remove bias.

The first version I did was written in C, the last version I did was a web version and was written in Perl.

Which one is it? Are all wins treated equally or not?

It seems like you understand that all opponents wins and loses are treated equally in SOS.

#UCFacts

 

[CJH9972]

I've made my own ranking and SoS formula and probably know more about the topic than just about anyone around here. There is no "simple math" to good ones, there is a process that has to be done with many steps and lots of complex math.

But go ahead and name a SoS formula and I'll tell you the flaws in it. You want a simple math one like win% based? Those are terrible because they treat all teams with the same record as being equal, without regard to who they've beat. A slightly better version of that is a cumulative win% which takes opponent records into account, but it still suffers from the same things.

A good SoS method will look at things like rushing/passing yards for offense/defense etc. And rushing for 100 yards in a game vs Alabama and rushing for 100 yards vs UTEP are quite different. So you normalize that data a bit and compare the stats against each other to get what I call "quality stats", which recognize the power differences of the 2 defenses. Based on this data you can start to get a real understanding of team strengths.

And then from there you can treat that data in a few different ways. I personally just took the average scores of those teams and that was the SoS. However as I already pointed out earlier in this thread, that method is flawed. Since then I've found another SoS that instead looks at predicted losses if an "elite team" were to play that schedule. This method is much better and doesn't suffer the problems of averages and if I were to start doing my own formula again I would switch to that. Most formulas just use averages.

You would basically never do these things by hand or with simple math because comparing every single game and every single team and all the stats would probably take even NASA weeks to complete. As such, if you really want to question me - don't ask me to "show the math" you can start by asking me what language I used.

But it's not like you're really looking for real answers here. Lucky for you, I like talking about the topic.

I'm curious. Do you view your system as attempt to rank teams best to worst team? Do you think it would be a valid way to determine playoff teams? If so, who would have made the playoffs with your system in recent years?

 

[redseat]

It's UCFunny that tshirt bandwagoners like you talk about, and
cite something that you can't explain nor understand. Lemmings.

But I’ll give you another chance to redeem yourselves. Define what SOS and show the math.

#UCFacts

Old link but here you go

Strength Of Schedule Explained

Also - Please point out (and as you say, simply) why UCF should be playing in a National Title game

 

[Wamu]

Old link but here you go

Strength Of Schedule Explained

Also - Please point out (and as you say, simply) why UCF should be playing in a National Title game

You don't know why UCF should be playing in the national title game? The answer is UCFhonors believes it. Isn't that enough?

 

[Wamu]

And like the UCF Ring, they don't mean a damn thing ... win or shut the fuck up, so I will keep quiet!!!

So I can't bait you into a little shit talking? Okay. Fine. Be that way.

On a different topic for a moment. Tribe/Tigers 3 game series in the Motor City. Wonder what dougplayer thinks of the match up?

 

[UCFhonors]

Old link but here you go

Strength Of Schedule Explained

Also - Please point out (and as you say, simply) why UCF should be playing in a National Title game

I wish more people were as proficient at Google as you are, good Sir.

The BCS added the Opponents' Opponents Winning % aka OOW%. Standard SOS does not include that.

#UCFacts

 

[UCFhonors]

Also - Please point out (and as you say, simply) why UCF should be playing in a National Title game

You don't know why UCF should be playing in the national title game? The answer is UCFhonors believes it. Isn't that enough?

Oh weeee, I like these brain busters!!!!

UCF should have been and was playing for the NC the last 2 years because..... drum roll.... because.. wait for it.... because we won our Conference. All NCAA sanctioned NCs, and all American Professional sports have a Legit Playoff where if you win your division, conference, league or whatever, you get in a Legit Playoff. This Legit Playoff determines A Champion.

Now, why do tshirt bandwagoners like the beauty pageant style of the Invitational? Why are tshirt bandwagoners scared of competition? Why do tshirt bandwagoners want less, not more games?


#UCFacts

 

[redseat]

Oh weeee, I like these brain busters!!!!

UCF should have been and was playing for the NC the last 2 years because..... drum roll.... because.. wait for it.... because we won our Conference. All NCAA sanctioned NCs, and all American Professional sports have a Legit Playoff where if you win your division, conference, league or whatever, you get in a Legit Playoff. This Legit Playoff determines A Champion.

Now, why do tshirt bandwagoners like the beauty pageant style of the Invitational? Why are tshirt bandwagoners scared of competition? Why do tshirt bandwagoners want less, not more games?


#UCFacts

I love how you call us bandwagoners... We aren't jumping on UCF at all... Love your passion for your team, really do... Just will never change my mind unless they play better competition and play in a better conference.. Until that happens they will never play for the Natty the way the current system is set up

 

[redseat]

You don't know why UCF should be playing in the national title game? The answer is UCFhonors believes it. Isn't that enough?

Listen I love this guys passion for his team... Really do... Never has backed down.. That's got to count for something...

 

[redseat]

Now I do want to see them in a Natty and see how they do so we can finally put the issue to bed. But like I said earlier, unless things change with the system (and it won't) UCF will never play in that game....

Though the main reason imo is money....

UCF v South Illinois State



or


Clemson v Alabama

Wonder which one will bring in more money

 

[4down20]

I'm curious. Do you view your system as attempt to rank teams best to worst team? Do you think it would be a valid way to determine playoff teams? If so, who would have made the playoffs with your system in recent years?

I quit doing it a few years ago when my stat source decided they wanted to charge like $1000 for the data. I think it's down to $500 now, but I'm still not paying that just for a hobby.

But it was a ranking system. I designed it back in 2007/2008 when all the "BCS Buster" stuff was going on because I was curious if teams like Boise St/TCU really were legit(spoiler: No, except for Boise St in 2010 which was their best team in that era despite losing to Nevada IIRC).

You can kind of see the old website and some of the rankings here: FBS College Football Computer Rankings, Power Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Predictions, Stats and more.

These are SoS rankings from 2012:

FBS College Football Strength of Schedule Computer Rankings for Week 15 2012

It also predicted the winners of games. Here is the bowl season for 2012. Bowl season is the worst %, it only got 60% of them correct. Most weeks it's about 70-75%. The worse bowl season was like 50%, I think that was 2014, tons of upsets, everyone did badly.

Bowl Game 2012 FBS College Football Computer Predictions

 

[UCFhonors]

I love how you call us bandwagoners... We aren't jumping on UCF at all... Love your passion for your team, really do... Just will never change my mind unless they play better competition and play in a better conference.. Until that happens they will never play for the Natty the way the current system is set up

The NE Patriots play in the weakest NFL division. Why does nobody try to dismiss their Super Bowl wins?

I’ll hang up and listen.

#UCFacts

 

[UCFhonors]

Now I do want to see them in a Natty and see how they do so we can finally put the issue to bed. But like I said earlier, unless things change with the system (and it won't) UCF will never play in that game....

Though the main reason imo is money....

UCF v South Illinois State



or


Clemson v Alabama

Wonder which one will bring in more money

I agree that money and the ESP5N Cartel has corrupted FBS postseason.

This is why UCF is the Champions of Change. We are UCFighting to Change all that to a legit postseason.

Sounds like we have your support. ?

#UCFacts

 

[4down20]

Which one is it? Are all wins treated equally or not?

It seems like you understand that all opponents wins and loses are treated equally in SOS.

#UCFacts

All wins are most definitely NOT equal.

I don't remember you bragging about beating anyone than Auburn previously for some reason. That's SoS and wins not being equal.

Of course, you know this.